The School of Odds
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Gimnasia Mendoza v Estudiantes

Kickoff: 2026-03-15 21:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gimnasia Mendoza (Local)

Prediction 26.08%3.83fair odd
EV -6.12%
Edge -1.70%
Kelly -2.35%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.08%26.08%26.08%26.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.453.533.533.6028.99%28.37%28.37%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Estudiantes (Visit)

Prediction 42.10%2.38fair odd
EV -5.28%
Edge -2.35%
Kelly -4.22%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.97%42.10%42.10%42.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.142.202.202.2546.73%45.42%45.45%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 31.82%3.14fair odd
EV -4.53%
Edge -1.51%
Kelly -2.26%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.58%31.82%31.82%31.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.852.932.923.0035.09%34.17%34.31%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Gimnasia Mendoza (Local): 26.08%; Estudiantes (Visit): 42.10%; Draw: 31.82%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.14. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.00, with an expected value of -4.53%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -6.12%E -1.70%K -2.35%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.11%EV -5.28%E -2.35%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.58%EV -4.53%E -1.51%K -2.26%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-15 18:05
Unibet (SE)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -6.12%E -1.70%K -2.35%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.11%EV -5.28%E -2.35%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.58%EV -4.53%E -1.51%K -2.26%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-15 18:05
BetRivers🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV -6.12%E -1.70%K -2.35%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.10%EV -6.12%E -2.74%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.82%EV -6.12%E -2.07%K -3.14%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-15 18:05
Virgin Bet🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.40%EV -10.03%E -2.91%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 41.97%EV -8.65%E -3.98%K -7.39%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.63%EV -8.35%E -2.90%K -4.44%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-15 18:05
LiveScore Bet🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.40%EV -10.03%E -2.91%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 41.97%EV -8.65%E -3.98%K -7.39%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.63%EV -8.35%E -2.90%K -4.44%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-15 18:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.16%EV -10.03%E -2.91%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 42.17%EV -9.91%E -4.63%K -8.69%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.67%EV -9.30%E -3.26%K -5.03%G +0.000%10.8%2026-03-15 18:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.