A Escola das Odds

Gimnasia Mendoza v Defensa y Justicia

Início: 2026-05-04 20:00 UTC

Final: Gimnasia Mendoza 2–1 Defensa y Justicia

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

34 casas de apostas (14 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: IQM

Gimnasia Mendoza (Local)

Previsão 38.29%2.61odd justa
EV -2.37%
Vantagem -0.929%
Kelly -1.53%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.55

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
36.22%38.39%38.35%41.79%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
2.202.392.412.5545.45%41.76%41.58%39.22%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Defensa y Justicia (Visitante)

Previsão 30.12%3.32odd justa
EV +5.43%
Vantagem +1.55%
Kelly +2.17%
Crescimento +0.118%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.50

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
26.87%29.97%30.19%31.61%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
2.803.113.103.5035.71%32.10%32.26%28.57%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Empate

Previsão 31.59%3.17odd justa
EV -5.23%
Vantagem -1.74%
Kelly -2.62%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.00

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
30.77%31.64%31.46%32.99%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
2.632.912.943.0038.02%34.40%34.07%33.33%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Odds das casas de apostas (34 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargemAtualização
BetRivers2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -13.85%E -6.16%K -11.08%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV +5.43%E +1.55%K +2.17%G +0.118%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -5.23%E -1.74%K -2.62%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-04 19:40
Unibet2.33I 42.92%NM 40.62%EV -10.79%E -4.63%K -8.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.84%EV +2.42%E +0.712%K +1.01%G +0.024%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.55%EV -5.23%E -1.74%K -2.62%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-04 19:54
Unibet (SE)2.33I 42.92%NM 40.62%EV -10.79%E -4.63%K -8.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.84%EV +2.42%E +0.712%K +1.01%G +0.024%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.55%EV -5.23%E -1.74%K -2.62%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-04 19:54
LowVig.ag2.45I 40.82%NM 38.87%EV -6.20%E -2.53%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.86%EV -0.591%E -0.179%K -0.257%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.28%EV -6.81%E -2.31%K -3.49%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-04 19:45
BetOnline.ag2.45I 40.82%NM 38.87%EV -6.20%E -2.53%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.86%EV -0.591%E -0.179%K -0.257%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.28%EV -6.81%E -2.31%K -3.49%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-04 19:44
Virgin Bet2.25I 44.44%NM 40.52%EV -13.85%E -6.16%K -11.08%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -2.10%E -0.645%K -0.932%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.43%EV -8.39%E -2.89%K -4.42%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-04 19:54
LiveScore Bet2.25I 44.44%NM 40.52%EV -13.85%E -6.16%K -11.08%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -2.10%E -0.645%K -0.932%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.43%EV -8.39%E -2.89%K -4.42%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-04 19:54
LeoVegas (SE)2.23I 44.84%NM 40.51%EV -14.62%E -6.56%K -11.89%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.80%EV -2.10%E -0.645%K -0.932%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.70%EV -9.97%E -3.50%K -5.39%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-04 19:54
Pinnacle2.48I 40.32%NM 38.44%EV -5.05%E -2.04%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.79%EV -3.60%E -1.13%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.77%EV -5.23%E -1.74%K -2.62%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-04 19:45
Fanatics2.40I 41.67%NM 39.22%EV -8.11%E -3.38%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -3.60%E -1.13%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%EV -5.23%E -1.74%K -2.62%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-04 19:45
Betsson2.45I 40.82%NM 38.39%EV -6.20%E -2.53%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -3.60%E -1.13%K -1.64%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.21%EV -7.76%E -2.66%K -4.04%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-04 19:44
NordicBet2.45I 40.82%NM 38.39%EV -6.20%E -2.53%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -3.60%E -1.13%K -1.64%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.21%EV -7.76%E -2.66%K -4.04%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-04 19:50
Everygame2.45I 40.82%NM 38.34%EV -6.20%E -2.53%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.82%EV -5.11%E -1.62%K -2.38%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.84%EV -6.81%E -2.31%K -3.49%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-04 19:44
FanDuel2.55I 39.22%NM 36.80%EV -2.37%E -0.929%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.27%EV -6.62%E -2.13%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.93%EV -9.97%E -3.50%K -5.39%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-04 19:54
theScore Bet2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -4.28%E -1.71%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.22%EV -6.62%E -2.13%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.31%EV -8.39%E -2.89%K -4.42%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-04 19:50
Bet Right2.35I 42.55%NM 39.14%EV -10.03%E -4.27%K -7.43%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.67%EV -6.62%E -2.13%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.18%EV -6.81%E -2.31%K -3.49%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-04 19:50
BoyleSports2.38I 42.02%NM 38.63%EV -8.88%E -3.73%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.66%EV -6.62%E -2.13%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -8.39%E -2.89%K -4.42%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-04 19:49
betfred_uk2.38I 42.02%NM 38.55%EV -8.88%E -3.73%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -6.62%E -2.13%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.86%EV -9.02%E -3.13%K -4.80%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-04 19:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.20I 45.45%NM 39.27%EV -15.77%E -7.17%K -13.14%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.87%EV -6.62%E -2.13%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 32.85%EV -16.92%E -6.43%K -10.38%G +0.000%15.7%2026-05-04 19:41
Marathon Bet2.41I 41.49%NM 38.67%EV -7.73%E -3.21%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 30.26%EV -7.22%E -2.34%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.07%EV -5.23%E -1.74%K -2.62%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-04 19:54
DraftKings2.50I 40.00%NM 37.69%EV -4.28%E -1.71%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.90%EV -8.12%E -2.66%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.41%EV -5.23%E -1.74%K -2.62%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-04 19:50
BetAnything2.50I 40.00%NM 37.49%EV -4.28%E -1.71%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.73%EV -8.12%E -2.66%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.77%EV -6.81%E -2.31%K -3.49%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-04 19:54
Bovada2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -6.20%E -2.53%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.50%EV -8.12%E -2.66%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.53%EV -6.81%E -2.31%K -3.49%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-04 19:53
Betr (AU)2.30I 43.48%NM 39.26%EV -11.94%E -5.19%K -9.18%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.60%EV -8.12%E -2.66%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.14%EV -8.39%E -2.89%K -4.42%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-04 19:50
Ladbrokes (UK)2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -4.28%E -1.71%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -9.63%E -3.21%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -5.23%E -1.74%K -2.62%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-04 19:45
SportsBet2.55I 39.22%NM 36.22%EV -2.37%E -0.929%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.79%EV -9.63%E -3.21%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.99%EV -11.55%E -4.13%K -6.42%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-04 19:54
Betway2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -8.11%E -3.38%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -9.63%E -3.21%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -5.23%E -1.74%K -2.62%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-04 19:45
Paddy Power2.45I 40.82%NM 36.93%EV -6.20%E -2.53%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.16%EV -9.63%E -3.21%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.90%EV -13.13%E -4.77%K -7.50%G +0.000%10.5%2026-05-04 19:54
BetMGM2.50I 40.00%NM 37.30%EV -4.28%E -1.71%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.61%EV -11.13%E -3.77%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.09%EV -5.23%E -1.74%K -2.62%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-04 19:55
NetBet (FR)2.22I 45.05%NM 39.15%EV -15.00%E -6.76%K -12.30%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.47%EV -11.13%E -3.77%K -5.71%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 31.38%EV -12.50%E -4.51%K -7.06%G +0.000%15.0%2026-05-04 19:45
Betclic (FR)2.35I 42.55%NM 37.95%EV -10.03%E -4.27%K -7.43%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 30.43%EV -11.74%E -4.01%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 31.62%EV -10.92%E -3.87%K -6.00%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-04 19:48
Winamax (DE)2.40I 41.67%NM 37.86%EV -8.11%E -3.38%K -5.79%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.33%EV -12.64%E -4.36%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.80%EV -6.81%E -2.31%K -3.49%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-04 19:50
Sky Bet2.45I 40.82%NM 36.33%EV -6.20%E -2.53%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.70%EV -12.64%E -4.36%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.97%EV -14.71%E -5.45%K -8.65%G +0.000%12.3%2026-05-04 19:54
Winamax (FR)2.30I 43.48%NM 37.84%EV -11.94%E -5.19%K -9.18%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.08%EV -15.65%E -5.59%K -8.70%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.08%EV -11.55%E -4.13%K -6.42%G +0.000%14.9%2026-05-04 19:50
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (5)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Matchbook2.70I 37.04%NM 36.82%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.59%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.59%0.6%2026-05-04 19:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.70I 37.04%NM 36.79%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.10%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.11%0.7%2026-05-04 19:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.70I 37.04%NM 36.79%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.10%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.11%0.7%2026-05-04 19:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.70I 37.04%NM 36.62%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.42%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.96%1.1%2026-05-04 19:55
Smarkets2.64I 37.88%NM 36.79%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.83%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.38%3.0%2026-05-04 19:55