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Gimnasia La Plata v Newells Old Boys

2026-11-20 19:00 UTC — Primera División - Argentina

Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gimnasia La Plata (Local)

Prediction 48.05%2.08fair odd
EV -2.45%
Edge -1.21%
Kelly -2.38%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.03

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.00%48.05%48.05%49.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.921.922.0355.56%52.17%52.08%49.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Newells Old Boys (Visit)

Prediction 23.06%4.34fair odd
EV -1.32%
Edge -0.309%
Kelly -0.403%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.21%23.06%23.06%23.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.954.084.024.2825.32%24.49%24.88%23.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.89%3.46fair odd
EV -2.93%
Edge -0.872%
Kelly -1.24%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.29%28.89%28.89%29.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.243.263.3632.26%30.86%30.67%29.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Gimnasia La Plata (Local): 48.05%; Newells Old Boys (Visit): 23.06%; Draw: 28.89%. For Newells Old Boys (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.34. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 4.28, with an expected value of -1.32%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 47.00%EV -2.45%E -1.21%K -2.38%G +0.000%4.02I 24.88%NM 23.73%EV -7.32%E -1.82%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 29.27%EV -5.82%E -1.78%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.8%2026-11-09 11:20
1xBet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.50%EV -7.74%E -4.03%K -8.41%G +0.000%4.28I 23.36%NM 22.21%EV -1.32%E -0.309%K -0.403%G +0.000%3.36I 29.76%NM 28.29%EV -2.93%E -0.872%K -1.24%G +0.000%5.2%2026-11-09 12:45
NetBet (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.11%EV -13.50%E -7.50%K -16.88%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.38%EV -8.93%E -2.26%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.51%EV -10.44%E -3.37%K -4.97%G +0.000%13.1%2026-11-09 10:24
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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