The School of Odds
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Gimnasia La Plata v Atlético Tucuman

Kickoff: 2026-10-11 20:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gimnasia La Plata (Local)

Prediction 42.50%2.35fair odd
EV -2.68%
Edge -1.17%
Kelly -2.08%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.29

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.23%42.50%42.53%43.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.962.132.152.2951.02%46.95%46.51%43.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Atlético Tucuman (Visit)

Prediction 26.91%3.72fair odd
EV -4.47%
Edge -1.26%
Kelly -1.75%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.89%26.88%27.02%27.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.373.403.5532.26%29.67%29.41%28.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.59%3.27fair odd
EV -3.63%
Edge -1.15%
Kelly -1.69%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.60%30.61%30.45%31.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.003.003.1535.71%33.33%33.33%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Gimnasia La Plata (Local): 42.50%; Atlético Tucuman (Visit): 26.91%; Draw: 30.59%. For Gimnasia La Plata (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.35. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.29, with an expected value of -2.68%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 41.50%EV -2.68%E -1.17%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.49I 28.65%NM 27.23%EV -6.09%E -1.74%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 31.26%EV -7.00%E -2.30%K -3.43%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-27 09:20
Marathon Bet🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 41.51%EV -4.80%E -2.14%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.19%EV -7.97%E -2.33%K -3.29%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 31.31%EV -9.14%E -3.08%K -4.64%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-27 09:18
NordicBet🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.59%EV -5.65%E -2.55%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.40%EV -7.17%E -2.08%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.01%EV -3.63%E -1.15%K -1.69%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-23 10:25
Betsson🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.59%EV -5.65%E -2.55%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.40%EV -7.17%E -2.08%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.01%EV -3.63%E -1.15%K -1.69%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-23 10:25
Bovada🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.60%EV -6.50%E -2.96%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -7.17%E -2.08%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.23%EV -5.16%E -1.67%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-24 03:05
BoyleSports🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.23%EV -6.50%E -2.96%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -11.20%E -3.39%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.28%EV -11.28%E -3.89%K -5.94%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-25 21:19
SportsBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.37%EV -8.63%E -4.01%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.03%EV -7.17%E -2.08%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.60%EV -3.63%E -1.15%K -1.69%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-24 03:04
FanDuel🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -8.63%E -4.01%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -8.51%E -2.50%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -5.16%E -1.67%K -2.46%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-24 03:03
Codere (IT)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.18%EV -9.05%E -4.23%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.03%EV -4.47%E -1.26%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.80%EV -8.22%E -2.74%K -4.11%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-22 14:39
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.80%EV -10.75%E -5.12%K -9.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -11.20%E -3.39%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.96%EV -8.22%E -2.74%K -4.11%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-24 03:04
Sky Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.23%EV -12.88%E -6.28%K -12.26%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.92%EV -16.58%E -5.35%K -7.90%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.85%EV -11.28%E -3.89%K -5.94%G +0.000%15.5%2026-09-24 03:35
Betclic (FR)🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 43.53%EV -13.73%E -6.76%K -13.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.99%EV -8.51%E -2.50%K -3.55%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.47%EV -11.28%E -3.89%K -5.94%G +0.000%13.2%2026-09-26 20:05
Winamax (DE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.78%EV -15.00%E -7.50%K -15.00%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.53%EV -11.20%E -3.39%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.68%EV -9.75%E -3.31%K -5.00%G +0.000%14.2%2026-09-22 14:39
Winamax (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.20%EV -15.00%E -7.50%K -15.00%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.00%EV -13.89%E -4.34%K -6.31%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.80%EV -11.28%E -3.89%K -5.94%G +0.000%15.7%2026-09-22 14:39
Unibet (FR)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 43.59%EV -16.70%E -8.52%K -17.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.89%EV -11.20%E -3.39%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.52%EV -14.34%E -5.12%K -7.97%G +0.000%17.0%2026-09-26 20:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.17I 85.47%NM 40.57%1.81I 55.25%NM 26.23%1.43I 69.93%NM 33.20%110.6%2026-09-26 14:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.17I 85.47%NM 40.57%1.81I 55.25%NM 26.23%1.43I 69.93%NM 33.20%110.6%2026-09-26 13:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.17I 85.47%NM 40.48%1.81I 55.25%NM 26.17%1.42I 70.42%NM 33.35%111.1%2026-09-26 10:20
Smarkets◎1.09I 91.74%NM 41.05%1.63I 61.35%NM 27.45%1.42I 70.42%NM 31.51%123.5%2026-09-26 14:20