The School of Odds
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Gimnasia La Plata v Atlético Tucuman

Kickoff: 2026-10-09 21:00 UTC

Final: Gimnasia La Plata 1–1 Atlético Tucuman

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

33 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gimnasia La Plata (Local)

Prediction 45.56%2.19fair odd
EV +1.60%
Edge +0.717%
Kelly +1.30%
Growth +0.021%

assuming max odds 2.23

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.79%45.33%45.63%46.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.852.052.052.2354.05%48.70%48.78%44.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Atlético Tucuman (Visit)

Prediction 25.07%3.99fair odd
EV -2.74%
Edge -0.706%
Kelly -0.952%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.24%25.27%25.03%28.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.593.603.8832.26%27.89%27.78%25.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.37%3.40fair odd
EV -4.54%
Edge -1.40%
Kelly -2.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.41%29.39%29.34%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.123.153.2534.48%32.04%31.75%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Gimnasia La Plata (Local): 45.56%; Atlético Tucuman (Visit): 25.07%; Draw: 29.37%. For Gimnasia La Plata (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.19. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.23, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.60%.

Sportsbook Odds (33 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.95%EV +1.60%E +0.717%K +1.30%G +0.021%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -17.28%E -5.24%K -7.51%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.70%EV -7.47%E -2.37%K -3.48%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-05 08:40
Unibet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.95%EV +1.60%E +0.717%K +1.30%G +0.021%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -17.28%E -5.24%K -7.51%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.70%EV -7.47%E -2.37%K -3.48%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-05 08:40
BetRivers🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.12%EV -0.679%E -0.311%K -0.575%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.25%EV -18.53%E -5.70%K -8.24%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.62%EV -8.94%E -2.89%K -4.26%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-05 08:40
LiveScore Bet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 41.79%EV -2.50%E -1.17%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.39%EV -21.04%E -6.68%K -9.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.81%EV -11.88%E -3.96%K -5.94%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-05 08:39
Virgin Bet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 41.79%EV -2.50%E -1.17%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.39%EV -21.04%E -6.68%K -9.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.81%EV -11.88%E -3.96%K -5.94%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-05 08:39
1xBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.84%EV -3.41%E -1.61%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.67I 27.25%NM 25.90%EV -8.01%E -2.18%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.25%EV -4.54%E -1.40%K -2.02%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-05 06:55
Fanatics🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -4.32%E -2.06%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -9.76%E -2.71%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -6.01%E -1.88%K -2.73%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-05 04:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -4.32%E -2.06%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -9.76%E -2.71%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -6.01%E -1.88%K -2.73%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-05 04:40
BetMGM🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -4.32%E -2.06%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -9.76%E -2.71%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -6.01%E -1.88%K -2.73%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-05 04:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.85%EV -4.32%E -2.06%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.35%EV -22.29%E -7.19%K -10.62%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.79%EV -13.35%E -4.53%K -6.85%G +0.000%13.8%2026-10-05 08:40
LowVig.ag🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.83%EV -5.23%E -2.52%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.57%EV -2.74%E -0.706%K -0.952%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 29.60%EV -5.42%E -1.68%K -2.44%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-04 15:10
BetOnline.ag🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.83%EV -5.23%E -2.52%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.57%EV -2.74%E -0.706%K -0.952%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 29.60%EV -5.42%E -1.68%K -2.44%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-04 15:10
Pinnacle🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.73%EV -5.23%E -2.52%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.86I 25.91%NM 24.64%EV -3.24%E -0.840%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.21I 31.15%NM 29.63%EV -5.71%E -1.78%K -2.58%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-04 09:15
Betsson🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.20%EV -5.23%E -2.52%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.41%EV -7.25%E -1.96%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.38%EV -6.01%E -1.88%K -2.73%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-05 09:30
NordicBet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.20%EV -5.23%E -2.52%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.41%EV -7.25%E -1.96%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.38%EV -6.01%E -1.88%K -2.73%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-05 09:30
Unibet (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.72%EV -6.60%E -3.22%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.99%EV -6.00%E -1.60%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.29%EV -6.01%E -1.88%K -2.73%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-05 06:29
Codere (IT)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.56%EV -6.60%E -3.22%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -7.25%E -1.96%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.19%EV -6.01%E -1.88%K -2.73%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-05 06:35
Bovada🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.51%EV -6.60%E -3.22%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.88%EV -6.00%E -1.60%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.62%EV -7.47%E -2.37%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-05 05:05
DraftKings🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.29%EV -6.60%E -3.22%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.76%EV -6.00%E -1.60%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.95%EV -8.94%E -2.89%K -4.26%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-04 15:55
betfred_uk🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -6.60%E -3.22%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -9.76%E -2.71%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -8.94%E -2.89%K -4.26%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-05 05:05
Bet Right🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -6.60%E -3.22%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -9.76%E -2.71%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -8.94%E -2.89%K -4.26%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-05 05:05
SportsBet🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 45.90%EV -7.51%E -3.70%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.52%EV -4.75%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.58%EV -7.47%E -2.37%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-05 05:05
theScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.18%EV -8.88%E -4.44%K -8.88%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.96%EV -7.25%E -1.96%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -6.01%E -1.88%K -2.73%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-05 06:30
FanDuel🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.05%EV -8.88%E -4.44%K -8.88%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.24%EV -4.75%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.71%EV -8.94%E -2.89%K -4.26%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-05 05:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.05%EV -8.88%E -4.44%K -8.88%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.24%EV -4.75%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.71%EV -8.94%E -2.89%K -4.26%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-05 07:10
Paddy Power🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.75%EV -8.88%E -4.44%K -8.88%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.73%EV -7.25%E -1.96%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -8.94%E -2.89%K -4.26%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-05 05:04
BoyleSports🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.45%EV -8.88%E -4.44%K -8.88%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -6.00%E -1.60%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.30%EV -11.88%E -3.96%K -5.94%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-03 20:25
Betclic (FR)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 45.94%EV -10.70%E -5.46%K -11.15%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.01%EV -9.76%E -2.71%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -8.94%E -2.89%K -4.26%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-05 06:33
Winamax (DE)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 45.66%EV -10.70%E -5.46%K -11.15%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.94%EV -13.52%E -3.92%K -5.52%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.41%EV -7.47%E -2.37%K -3.48%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-05 06:30
Sky Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 44.52%EV -11.16%E -5.72%K -11.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.54%EV -14.77%E -4.35%K -6.16%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.94%EV -14.82%E -5.11%K -7.80%G +0.000%15.2%2026-10-05 05:20
Winamax (FR)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 45.53%EV -11.61%E -5.99%K -12.35%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.98%EV -14.77%E -4.35%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.49%EV -8.94%E -2.89%K -4.26%G +0.000%13.2%2026-10-05 06:30
NetBet (FR)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 46.11%EV -12.07%E -6.25%K -12.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.72%EV -9.76%E -2.71%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.18%EV -10.41%E -3.41%K -5.08%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-05 06:55
Unibet (FR)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 46.22%EV -15.71%E -8.49%K -18.49%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 24.79%EV -13.52%E -3.92%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 28.99%EV -13.35%E -4.53%K -6.85%G +0.000%16.9%2026-10-05 06:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.13I 46.95%NM 46.04%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.51%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.45%2.0%2026-10-05 10:46
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.18I 45.87%NM 44.64%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.95%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.41%2.8%2026-10-05 11:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.18I 45.87%NM 44.64%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.95%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.41%2.8%2026-10-05 11:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.18I 45.87%NM 44.64%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.95%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.41%2.8%2026-10-05 11:15
Smarkets◎2.12I 47.17%NM 44.68%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.26%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.07%5.6%2026-10-05 13:35