The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Estudiantes de Río Cuarto v Sarmiento de Junin

Kickoff: 2026-09-06 20:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

29 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Estudiantes de Río Cuarto (Local)

Prediction 34.08%2.93fair odd
EV -2.88%
Edge -1.01%
Kelly -1.56%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.84%34.31%33.77%36.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.702.702.8540.00%37.07%37.04%35.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sarmiento de Junin (Visit)

Prediction 33.45%2.99fair odd
EV +2.01%
Edge +0.659%
Kelly +0.980%
Growth +0.020%

assuming max odds 3.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.25%33.32%33.70%35.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.722.703.0540.00%36.80%37.04%32.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 32.48%3.08fair odd
EV -2.56%
Edge -0.855%
Kelly -1.28%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.03%32.37%32.53%32.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.682.852.883.0037.31%35.03%34.72%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Estudiantes de Río Cuarto (Local): 34.08%; Sarmiento de Junin (Visit): 33.45%; Draw: 32.48%. For Sarmiento de Junin (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.99. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.05, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.01%.

Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.64I 37.88%NM 36.11%EV -10.04%E -3.80%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.25%EV +2.01%E +0.659%K +0.980%G +0.020%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.64%EV -5.16%E -1.77%K -2.69%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-29 23:25
1xBet🎯2.67I 37.45%NM 35.58%EV -9.02%E -3.38%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.99I 33.44%NM 31.77%EV +0.003%E +0.001%K +0.002%G +0.000%2.91I 34.36%NM 32.65%EV -5.49%E -1.89%K -2.87%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-30 08:50
Marathon Bet🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.58%EV -10.72%E -4.09%K -6.62%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 31.82%EV -2.00%E -0.684%K -1.04%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 32.60%EV -7.11%E -2.49%K -3.82%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-30 12:29
Fanatics🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -6.29%E -2.29%K -3.60%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.74%EV -3.01%E -1.04%K -1.58%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.74%EV -5.81%E -2.00%K -3.06%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-31 01:45
BoyleSports🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.40%EV -11.40%E -4.39%K -7.13%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.73%EV -3.01%E -1.04%K -1.58%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.87%EV -9.06%E -3.24%K -5.03%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-31 10:29
NordicBet🎯2.82I 35.46%NM 33.72%EV -3.91%E -1.39%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.72%EV -5.68%E -2.02%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.56%EV -5.16%E -1.77%K -2.69%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-01 05:54
Betsson🎯2.82I 35.46%NM 33.72%EV -3.91%E -1.39%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.72%EV -5.68%E -2.02%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.56%EV -5.16%E -1.77%K -2.69%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-01 05:55
Bovada🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.73%EV -8.00%E -2.96%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.49%EV -6.35%E -2.27%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.78%EV -4.19%E -1.42%K -2.15%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-30 13:02
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.46%EV -8.00%E -2.96%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.23%EV -6.35%E -2.27%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.31%EV -6.46%E -2.24%K -3.44%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-01 07:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.92%EV -6.29%E -2.29%K -3.60%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.92%EV -8.02%E -2.92%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.16%EV -5.81%E -2.00%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-29 22:15
Betclic (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.06%EV -14.81%E -5.92%K -9.87%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 32.23%EV -9.03%E -3.32%K -5.25%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 32.71%EV -12.96%E -4.84%K -7.71%G +0.000%14.1%2026-08-31 10:14
Unibet (SE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.84%EV -2.88%E -1.01%K -1.56%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.66%EV -9.70%E -3.59%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.50%EV -6.46%E -2.24%K -3.44%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-27 01:44
Unibet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.84%EV -2.88%E -1.01%K -1.56%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.66%EV -9.70%E -3.59%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.50%EV -6.46%E -2.24%K -3.44%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-27 01:44
BetMGM🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.71%EV -6.29%E -2.29%K -3.60%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.33%EV -9.70%E -3.59%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.96%EV -5.81%E -2.00%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-29 22:19
Unibet (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.63%EV -6.29%E -2.29%K -3.60%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.25%EV -9.70%E -3.59%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.11%EV -6.46%E -2.24%K -3.44%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-30 20:05
Codere (IT)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.52%EV -6.29%E -2.29%K -3.60%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.14%EV -9.70%E -3.59%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.34%EV -7.44%E -2.61%K -4.02%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-31 14:59
theScore Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.73%EV -8.00%E -2.96%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.73%EV -9.70%E -3.59%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.53%EV -9.06%E -3.24%K -5.03%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-31 11:04
SportsBet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.85%EV -6.29%E -2.29%K -3.60%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.13%EV -11.37%E -4.29%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -2.56%E -0.855%K -1.28%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-30 12:59
FanDuel🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.85%EV -6.29%E -2.29%K -3.60%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.13%EV -11.37%E -4.29%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -2.56%E -0.855%K -1.28%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-30 13:00
BetRivers🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.90%EV -4.59%E -1.64%K -2.55%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.77%EV -11.37%E -4.29%K -6.89%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.33%EV -7.44%E -2.61%K -4.02%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-27 01:43
Bet Right🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.90%EV -8.00%E -2.96%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.54%EV -11.37%E -4.29%K -6.89%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.56%EV -5.81%E -2.00%K -3.06%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-30 20:05
betfred_uk🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -6.29%E -2.29%K -3.60%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.94%EV -12.37%E -4.72%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.78%EV -6.46%E -2.24%K -3.44%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-30 13:00
Paddy Power🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.28%EV -10.72%E -4.09%K -6.62%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.54%EV -13.04%E -5.02%K -8.15%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.18%EV -6.46%E -2.24%K -3.44%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-30 12:59
Sky Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 34.63%EV -14.81%E -5.92%K -9.87%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.30%EV -13.04%E -5.02%K -8.15%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.07%EV -12.31%E -4.56%K -7.24%G +0.000%15.5%2026-09-01 07:14
LiveScore Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.89%EV -8.00%E -2.96%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.82%EV -14.71%E -5.77%K -9.49%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.29%EV -10.68%E -3.89%K -6.11%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-27 01:44
Virgin Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.89%EV -8.00%E -2.96%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.82%EV -14.71%E -5.77%K -9.49%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.29%EV -10.68%E -3.89%K -6.11%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-27 01:43
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.10%EV -9.70%E -3.66%K -5.88%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.40%EV -14.71%E -5.77%K -9.49%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.49%EV -12.31%E -4.56%K -7.24%G +0.000%14.0%2026-08-27 01:43
Winamax (DE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.36%EV -13.11%E -5.14%K -8.46%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.36%EV -14.71%E -5.77%K -9.49%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.29%EV -9.06%E -3.24%K -5.03%G +0.000%14.1%2026-08-25 19:04
Winamax (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 33.93%EV -13.11%E -5.14%K -8.46%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.61%EV -16.39%E -6.55%K -10.92%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.46%EV -10.68%E -3.89%K -6.11%G +0.000%15.6%2026-08-25 19:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.78I 35.97%NM 35.27%3.03I 33.00%NM 32.36%3.03I 33.00%NM 32.36%2.0%2026-08-31 17:20
Smarkets◎2.56I 39.06%NM 33.67%2.54I 39.37%NM 33.93%2.66I 37.59%NM 32.40%16.0%2026-08-27 20:05