The School of Odds
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Estudiantes de Río Cuarto v Sarmiento de Junin

Kickoff: 2026-09-04 19:45 UTC

Final: Estudiantes de Río Cuarto 0–2 Sarmiento de Junin

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

37 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Estudiantes de Río Cuarto (Local)

Prediction 31.53%3.17fair odd
EV -3.19%
Edge -1.04%
Kelly -1.54%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.07

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.83%31.79%31.51%33.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.872.903.0738.46%34.83%34.48%32.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sarmiento de Junin (Visit)

Prediction 35.39%2.83fair odd
EV -0.901%
Edge -0.322%
Kelly -0.500%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.53%35.21%35.39%36.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.472.662.652.8040.49%37.55%37.74%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 33.07%3.02fair odd
EV -1.44%
Edge -0.483%
Kelly -0.727%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.98

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.78%32.99%33.10%33.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.652.822.852.9837.74%35.43%35.09%33.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Estudiantes de Río Cuarto (Local): 31.53%; Sarmiento de Junin (Visit): 35.39%; Draw: 33.07%. For Sarmiento de Junin (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.83. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.80, with an expected value of -0.901%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯3.07I 32.57%NM 31.57%EV -3.19%E -1.04%K -1.54%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 35.24%EV -2.67%E -0.971%K -1.53%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 33.19%EV -3.42%E -1.17%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.2%2026-09-04 14:10
Codere (IT)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.05%EV -3.82%E -1.25%K -1.86%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.73%EV -6.21%E -2.34%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.22%EV -5.74%E -2.01%K -3.10%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-04 09:25
Fanatics🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.81%EV -5.40%E -1.80%K -2.70%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.70%EV -2.67%E -0.971%K -1.53%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.49%EV -5.74%E -2.01%K -3.10%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-04 07:25
1xBet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.66%EV -5.40%E -1.80%K -2.70%G +0.000%2.73I 36.63%NM 34.79%EV -3.38%E -1.24%K -1.95%G +0.000%2.83I 35.34%NM 33.56%EV -6.40%E -2.26%K -3.50%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-04 14:29
DraftKings🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.40%EV -5.40%E -1.80%K -2.70%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.55%EV -6.21%E -2.34%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.05%EV -5.74%E -2.01%K -3.10%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-04 07:08
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -5.40%E -1.80%K -2.70%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.89%EV -7.27%E -2.78%K -4.49%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.76%EV -5.08%E -1.77%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-04 10:14
Unibet (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.22%EV -5.40%E -1.80%K -2.70%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.34%EV -6.21%E -2.34%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.45%EV -7.39%E -2.64%K -4.11%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-04 09:20
theScore Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.01%EV -5.40%E -1.80%K -2.70%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.78%EV -7.98%E -3.07%K -4.99%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.22%EV -7.39%E -2.64%K -4.11%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-04 09:19
BetMGM🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.01%EV -5.40%E -1.80%K -2.70%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.78%EV -7.98%E -3.07%K -4.99%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.22%EV -7.39%E -2.64%K -4.11%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-04 10:15
Marathon Bet🎯2.98I 33.56%NM 31.29%EV -6.03%E -2.02%K -3.05%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 35.05%EV -5.86%E -2.20%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 33.66%EV -8.39%E -3.03%K -4.74%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-04 14:35
BetOnline.ag🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.78%EV -6.98%E -2.36%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.78%EV -1.61%E -0.579%K -0.904%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.45%EV -1.44%E -0.483%K -0.727%G +0.000%3.4%2026-09-03 22:10
LowVig.ag🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.78%EV -6.98%E -2.36%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.78%EV -1.61%E -0.579%K -0.904%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.45%EV -1.44%E -0.483%K -0.727%G +0.000%3.4%2026-09-03 22:10
BetAnything🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.78%EV -6.98%E -2.36%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.78%EV -1.61%E -0.579%K -0.904%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.45%EV -1.44%E -0.483%K -0.727%G +0.000%3.4%2026-09-03 22:10
Bovada🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.76%EV -6.98%E -2.36%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.36%EV -6.21%E -2.34%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.88%EV -5.74%E -2.01%K -3.10%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-04 10:15
Betsson🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.76%EV -6.98%E -2.36%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.36%EV -6.21%E -2.34%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.88%EV -5.74%E -2.01%K -3.10%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-04 10:30
NordicBet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.76%EV -6.98%E -2.36%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.36%EV -6.21%E -2.34%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.88%EV -5.74%E -2.01%K -3.10%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-04 10:30
Betclic (FR)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.83%EV -6.98%E -2.36%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 36.09%EV -10.81%E -4.29%K -7.11%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.07%EV -9.05%E -3.29%K -5.17%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-04 09:20
Betway🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -8.55%E -2.95%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.55%EV -7.27%E -2.78%K -4.49%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.34%EV -4.75%E -1.65%K -2.52%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-04 08:05
PlayUp🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.95%EV -8.55%E -2.95%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.96%EV -6.21%E -2.34%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.09%EV -7.39%E -2.64%K -4.11%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-04 10:30
Winamax (DE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -8.55%E -2.95%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.30%EV -11.52%E -4.61%K -7.68%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.41%EV -7.39%E -2.64%K -4.11%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-04 09:20
Winamax (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.48%EV -10.13%E -3.55%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.89%EV -11.52%E -4.61%K -7.68%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.63%EV -9.05%E -3.29%K -5.17%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-04 09:20
NetBet (FR)🎯2.82I 35.46%NM 31.19%EV -11.08%E -3.93%K -6.09%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 35.61%EV -12.58%E -5.09%K -8.56%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.19%EV -12.35%E -4.66%K -7.49%G +0.000%13.7%2026-09-04 14:35
Unibet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.53%EV -11.71%E -4.18%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.53%EV -0.901%E -0.322%K -0.500%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV -5.74%E -2.01%K -3.10%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-04 14:35
Unibet (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.53%EV -11.71%E -4.18%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.53%EV -0.901%E -0.322%K -0.500%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV -5.74%E -2.01%K -3.10%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-04 14:35
FanDuel🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.53%EV -11.71%E -4.18%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.53%EV -0.901%E -0.322%K -0.500%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV -5.74%E -2.01%K -3.10%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-04 05:35
SportsBet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -11.71%E -4.18%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.93%EV -2.67%E -0.971%K -1.53%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.74%EV -5.74%E -2.01%K -3.10%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-04 05:34
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.13%EV -11.71%E -4.18%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -2.67%E -0.971%K -1.53%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.13%EV -7.39%E -2.64%K -4.11%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-04 05:35
BoyleSports🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -11.71%E -4.18%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.14%EV -7.27%E -2.78%K -4.49%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.97%EV -4.75%E -1.65%K -2.52%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-04 05:40
BetRivers🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.53%EV -13.28%E -4.83%K -7.59%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.53%EV -2.67%E -0.971%K -1.53%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.93%EV -7.39%E -2.64%K -4.11%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-04 14:35
Paddy Power🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.33%EV -13.28%E -4.83%K -7.59%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.94%EV -4.44%E -1.64%K -2.61%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.73%EV -7.39%E -2.64%K -4.11%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-04 05:34
Bet Right🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.30%EV -13.28%E -4.83%K -7.59%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.56%EV -6.21%E -2.34%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.14%EV -5.74%E -2.01%K -3.10%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-04 07:00
betfred_uk🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -13.28%E -4.83%K -7.59%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.94%EV -7.27%E -2.78%K -4.49%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.78%EV -4.75%E -1.65%K -2.52%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-04 07:00
Betr (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.90%EV -13.28%E -4.83%K -7.59%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.79%EV -7.98%E -3.07%K -4.99%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.31%EV -7.39%E -2.64%K -4.11%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-04 07:00
Sky Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.04%EV -14.86%E -5.50%K -8.74%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.92%EV -6.92%E -2.63%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.04%EV -10.70%E -3.96%K -6.29%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-04 05:35
LiveScore Bet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 33.62%EV -17.07%E -6.49%K -10.47%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.62%EV -6.92%E -2.63%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.75%EV -10.70%E -3.96%K -6.29%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-04 14:35
Virgin Bet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 33.62%EV -17.07%E -6.49%K -10.47%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.62%EV -6.92%E -2.63%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.75%EV -10.70%E -3.96%K -6.29%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-04 14:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 33.54%EV -18.01%E -6.93%K -11.26%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.54%EV -7.98%E -3.07%K -4.99%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 32.91%EV -12.35%E -4.66%K -7.49%G +0.000%14.7%2026-09-04 14:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎3.15I 31.75%NM 31.52%2.88I 34.72%NM 34.48%2.92I 34.25%NM 34.00%0.7%2026-09-04 14:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.15I 31.75%NM 31.52%2.88I 34.72%NM 34.48%2.92I 34.25%NM 34.00%0.7%2026-09-04 14:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.15I 31.75%NM 31.52%2.88I 34.72%NM 34.48%2.92I 34.25%NM 34.00%0.7%2026-09-04 14:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.15I 31.75%NM 31.52%2.88I 34.72%NM 34.48%2.92I 34.25%NM 34.00%0.7%2026-09-04 14:35
Kalshi◎3.12I 32.05%NM 31.41%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.25%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.33%2.0%2026-09-04 11:20