The School of Odds
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Estudiantes v San Lorenzo

2026-10-18 20:00 UTC — Primera División - Argentina

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Estudiantes (Local)

Prediction 55.52%1.80fair odd
EV -3.94%
Edge -2.28%
Kelly -5.40%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.73

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.16%55.32%55.37%56.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.521.641.651.7365.79%61.04%60.61%57.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

San Lorenzo (Visit)

Prediction 16.24%6.16fair odd
EV -2.55%
Edge -0.425%
Kelly -0.510%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.49%16.50%16.42%18.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.755.415.506.0021.05%18.47%18.18%16.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.23%3.54fair odd
EV -5.41%
Edge -1.62%
Kelly -2.30%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.56%28.18%28.21%28.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.223.253.3533.33%31.10%30.72%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Estudiantes (Local): 55.52%; San Lorenzo (Visit): 16.24%; Draw: 28.23%. For San Lorenzo (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.16. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 6.00, with an expected value of -2.55%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.96%EV -3.94%E -2.28%K -5.40%G +0.000%5.77I 17.33%NM 16.48%EV -6.28%E -1.09%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 28.56%EV -5.98%E -1.80%K -2.57%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-04 02:40
BoyleSports🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.90%EV -5.61%E -3.30%K -8.02%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.33%EV -18.79%E -3.76%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.77%EV -6.82%E -2.07%K -2.97%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-04 06:35
SportsBet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.53%EV -6.17%E -3.65%K -8.94%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.46%EV -7.42%E -1.30%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.01%EV -5.41%E -1.62%K -2.30%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-04 00:50
FanDuel🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.29%EV -6.17%E -3.65%K -8.94%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.39%EV -7.42%E -1.30%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -6.82%E -2.07%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-04 00:47
Marathon Bet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.02%EV -6.17%E -3.65%K -8.94%G +0.000%5.65I 17.70%NM 16.46%EV -8.23%E -1.46%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 28.52%EV -7.95%E -2.44%K -3.52%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-04 02:42
Codere (IT)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.34%EV -8.39%E -5.08%K -12.90%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%EV -2.55%E -0.425%K -0.510%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.17%EV -6.82%E -2.07%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-04 00:50
Paddy Power🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.42%EV -8.39%E -5.08%K -12.90%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.96%EV -18.79%E -3.76%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.63%EV -8.24%E -2.53%K -3.66%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-04 00:53
Sky Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 53.16%EV -10.05%E -6.21%K -16.21%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.13%EV -22.85%E -4.81%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.71%EV -15.30%E -5.10%K -7.65%G +0.000%16.1%2026-10-04 00:50
Betclic (FR)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 56.06%EV -12.27%E -7.77%K -21.16%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.82%EV -9.05%E -1.62%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.12%EV -11.06%E -3.51%K -5.14%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-04 00:50
Winamax (DE)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 55.81%EV -12.27%E -7.77%K -21.16%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.64%EV -13.92%E -2.63%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.56%EV -9.65%E -3.02%K -4.39%G +0.000%13.4%2026-10-04 00:50
Winamax (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 55.28%EV -13.38%E -8.58%K -23.90%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 16.91%EV -17.17%E -3.37%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.82%EV -12.47%E -4.02%K -5.94%G +0.000%16.0%2026-10-04 00:50
Unibet (FR)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 56.18%EV -15.60%E -10.27%K -30.01%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 15.81%EV -12.29%E -2.28%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.00%EV -13.88%E -4.55%K -6.77%G +0.000%17.1%2026-10-04 00:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.12I 89.29%NM 32.93%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.53%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.53%171.1%2026-10-04 03:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.12I 89.29%NM 32.93%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.53%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.53%171.1%2026-10-04 03:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.12I 89.29%NM 32.93%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.53%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.53%171.1%2026-10-04 03:35