The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Estudiantes v Racing Club

Kickoff: 2026-05-09 00:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Estudiantes (Local)

Prediction 39.41%2.54fair odd
EV -2.65%
Edge -1.07%
Kelly -1.80%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.47

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.07%39.41%38.63%41.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.372.422.4747.62%42.19%41.32%40.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Racing Club (Visit)

Prediction 29.35%3.41fair odd
EV -6.07%
Edge -1.90%
Kelly -2.76%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.65%29.35%30.00%30.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.123.113.2032.79%32.07%32.15%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 31.23%3.20fair odd
EV -5.67%
Edge -1.88%
Kelly -2.81%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.88%31.23%31.37%31.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.822.952.983.0235.46%33.90%33.56%33.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Estudiantes (Local): 39.41%; Racing Club (Visit): 29.35%; Draw: 31.23%. For Estudiantes (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.54. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.47, with an expected value of -2.65%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 38.54%EV -2.65%E -1.07%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.94%EV -6.65%E -2.09%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 31.52%EV -5.67%E -1.88%K -2.81%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-04 04:25
1xBet🎯2.46I 40.65%NM 38.07%EV -3.05%E -1.24%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.07I 32.57%NM 30.50%EV -9.88%E -3.22%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.43%EV -6.92%E -2.32%K -3.50%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-05 04:24
Marathon Bet🎯2.44I 40.98%NM 38.22%EV -3.83%E -1.57%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 30.48%EV -10.18%E -3.33%K -4.94%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.30%EV -6.92%E -2.32%K -3.50%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-05 04:20
Everygame🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.25%EV -5.41%E -2.25%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.10%EV -10.47%E -3.43%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -9.42%E -3.25%K -4.96%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-04 05:18
Bovada🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.72%EV -7.38%E -3.14%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.17%EV -6.07%E -1.90%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.11%EV -6.30%E -2.10%K -3.15%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-05 04:24
NetBet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.47%EV -17.23%E -8.21%K -15.67%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.65%EV -7.53%E -2.39%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 30.88%EV -11.92%E -4.23%K -6.55%G +0.000%14.8%2026-05-05 04:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.