The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Estudiantes v Platense

Kickoff: 2026-09-13 20:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Estudiantes (Local)

Prediction 54.12%1.85fair odd
EV -4.21%
Edge -2.38%
Kelly -5.47%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.82%54.12%53.61%55.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.561.681.671.7764.10%59.59%59.88%56.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Platense (Visit)

Prediction 17.13%5.84fair odd
EV -0.637%
Edge -0.110%
Kelly -0.133%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.98%17.13%17.60%22.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.685.065.205.8027.17%19.78%19.23%17.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.75%3.48fair odd
EV -5.12%
Edge -1.55%
Kelly -2.22%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.81%28.75%28.79%29.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.143.203.3034.48%31.85%31.25%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Estudiantes (Local): 54.12%; Platense (Visit): 17.13%; Draw: 28.75%. For Platense (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.84. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 5.80, with an expected value of -0.637%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.63%EV -4.21%E -2.38%K -5.47%G +0.000%5.39I 18.55%NM 17.61%EV -7.66%E -1.42%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.76%EV -5.12%E -1.55%K -2.22%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-29 22:10
SportsBet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.28%EV -4.76%E -2.70%K -6.26%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.86%EV -10.06%E -1.92%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.85%EV -6.55%E -2.02%K -2.91%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-29 17:05
Marathon Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.61%EV -5.84%E -3.36%K -7.89%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.60%EV -9.20%E -1.74%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 28.79%EV -6.84%E -2.11%K -3.05%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-29 22:05
FanDuel🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.24%EV -5.84%E -3.36%K -7.89%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.81%EV -10.92%E -2.10%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -7.99%E -2.50%K -3.63%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-29 17:10
Betclic (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 48.82%EV -8.00%E -4.71%K -11.43%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 22.55%EV -36.96%E -10.04%K -13.79%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 28.62%EV -16.62%E -5.73%K -8.75%G +0.000%20.5%2026-08-29 22:04
Codere (IT)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.50%EV -9.63%E -5.76%K -14.37%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.98%EV -0.637%E -0.110%K -0.133%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.52%EV -6.55%E -2.02%K -2.91%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-29 17:05
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.12%EV -9.63%E -5.76%K -14.37%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.08%EV -14.34%E -2.87%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.81%EV -6.55%E -2.02%K -2.91%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-29 22:01
Sky Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 51.87%EV -9.63%E -5.76%K -14.37%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.25%EV -22.91%E -5.09%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.88%EV -13.74%E -4.58%K -6.87%G +0.000%15.4%2026-08-29 17:10
Winamax (DE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 55.08%EV -13.41%E -8.38%K -22.36%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 16.95%EV -10.92%E -2.10%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.98%EV -9.43%E -2.99%K -4.39%G +0.000%13.5%2026-08-29 17:05
Winamax (FR)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 54.52%EV -14.50%E -9.18%K -24.99%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.23%EV -14.34%E -2.87%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.25%EV -12.31%E -4.03%K -6.00%G +0.000%16.1%2026-08-29 17:05
Unibet (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 54.85%EV -15.58%E -9.99%K -27.82%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.14%EV -9.20%E -1.74%K -2.14%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.01%EV -15.18%E -5.15%K -7.78%G +0.000%16.9%2026-08-29 20:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.