The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Estudiantes v Lanus

Kickoff: 2026-03-11 21:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Estudiantes (Local)

Prediction 45.72%2.19fair odd
EV -2.15%
Edge -1.01%
Kelly -1.89%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.14

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.57%45.72%45.72%47.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.911.971.962.1452.36%50.69%51.02%46.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Lanus (Visit)

Prediction 23.94%4.18fair odd
EV +0.565%
Edge +0.135%
Kelly +0.177%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.34%23.94%23.94%25.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.654.054.104.2027.40%24.69%24.39%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.33%3.30fair odd
EV -2.94%
Edge -0.918%
Kelly -1.33%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.48%30.33%30.33%30.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.023.123.153.2033.11%32.08%31.75%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Estudiantes (Local): 45.72%; Lanus (Visit): 23.94%; Draw: 30.33%. For Lanus (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.18. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.565%.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.84%EV -9.47%E -4.78%K -9.66%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.55%EV +0.565%E +0.135%K +0.177%G +0.001%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.60%EV -2.94%E -0.918%K -1.33%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-09 09:59
Unibet (SE)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.97%EV -9.92%E -5.04%K -10.23%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.50%EV +0.565%E +0.135%K +0.177%G +0.001%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.53%EV -2.94%E -0.918%K -1.33%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-09 10:00
BetRivers🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.87%EV -10.38%E -5.30%K -10.81%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%EV +0.565%E +0.135%K +0.177%G +0.001%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.79%EV -4.45%E -1.41%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-09 10:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 47.87%EV -11.30%E -5.82%K -12.02%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.65%EV -1.83%E -0.446%K -0.590%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.48%EV -4.45%E -1.41%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-09 09:59
Virgin Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.53%EV -12.67%E -6.63%K -13.92%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.70%EV -4.22%E -1.06%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.77%EV -7.49%E -2.45%K -3.65%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-09 10:00
LiveScore Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.53%EV -12.67%E -6.63%K -13.92%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.70%EV -4.22%E -1.06%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.77%EV -7.49%E -2.45%K -3.65%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-09 09:59
Marathon Bet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.57%EV -2.15%E -1.01%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.55%EV -12.60%E -3.45%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 30.88%EV -8.40%E -2.78%K -4.16%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-04 01:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.