The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Deportivo Riestra v Union Santa Fe

Kickoff: 2026-10-18 20:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Deportivo Riestra (Local)

Prediction 38.78%2.58fair odd
EV -5.37%
Edge -2.20%
Kelly -3.73%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.44

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.27%38.72%38.77%39.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.342.382.4446.51%42.80%41.93%40.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Union Santa Fe (Visit)

Prediction 28.52%3.51fair odd
EV -5.59%
Edge -1.69%
Kelly -2.42%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.31

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.84%28.65%28.61%29.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.143.153.3134.48%31.89%31.75%30.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 32.69%3.06fair odd
EV -3.55%
Edge -1.20%
Kelly -1.82%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.44%32.62%32.62%33.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.802.802.9538.46%35.68%35.71%33.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Deportivo Riestra (Local): 38.78%; Union Santa Fe (Visit): 28.52%; Draw: 32.69%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.06. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.95, with an expected value of -3.55%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.44I 40.98%NM 38.95%EV -5.37%E -2.20%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.31I 30.21%NM 28.72%EV -5.59%E -1.69%K -2.42%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 32.33%EV -3.88%E -1.32%K -2.00%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-04 01:25
Codere (IT)🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 38.27%EV -6.14%E -2.54%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.06%EV -5.87%E -1.78%K -2.55%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.67%EV -10.09%E -3.67%K -5.77%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-04 01:04
Fanatics🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.14%EV -6.92%E -2.88%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.47%EV -5.87%E -1.78%K -2.55%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.39%EV -5.19%E -1.79%K -2.73%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-05 04:24
SportsBet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.83%EV -6.92%E -2.88%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.58%EV -10.15%E -3.22%K -4.72%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -3.55%E -1.20%K -1.82%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-04 01:24
Bovada🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.83%EV -6.92%E -2.88%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.58%EV -10.15%E -3.22%K -4.72%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -3.55%E -1.20%K -1.82%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-04 15:33
FanDuel🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.64%EV -6.92%E -2.88%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.92%EV -11.58%E -3.73%K -5.51%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.44%EV -3.55%E -1.20%K -1.82%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-04 01:23
Marathon Bet🎯2.39I 41.84%NM 38.95%EV -7.31%E -3.06%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 28.73%EV -7.59%E -2.34%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.32%EV -5.84%E -2.03%K -3.11%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-04 01:42
BoyleSports🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.55%EV -7.70%E -3.23%K -5.58%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -8.73%E -2.73%K -3.97%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.77%EV -8.46%E -3.02%K -4.70%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-04 06:35
Paddy Power🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.64%EV -10.80%E -4.70%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.62%EV -14.43%E -4.81%K -7.22%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.74%EV -8.46%E -3.02%K -4.70%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-04 01:24
Betclic (FR)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 38.79%EV -11.57%E -5.08%K -9.04%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.08%EV -10.15%E -3.22%K -4.72%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 33.13%EV -12.71%E -4.76%K -7.61%G +0.000%13.1%2026-10-04 01:05
Winamax (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 38.89%EV -12.74%E -5.66%K -10.19%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.69%EV -13.00%E -4.26%K -6.34%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.41%EV -11.73%E -4.34%K -6.90%G +0.000%14.3%2026-10-04 01:03
Winamax (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 38.48%EV -12.74%E -5.66%K -10.19%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.86%EV -14.43%E -4.81%K -7.22%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 32.67%EV -13.36%E -5.04%K -8.10%G +0.000%15.5%2026-10-04 01:05
Sky Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 38.33%EV -12.74%E -5.66%K -10.19%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.74%EV -17.28%E -5.96%K -9.10%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 31.94%EV -11.73%E -4.34%K -6.90%G +0.000%16.0%2026-10-04 01:52
Unibet (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 39.50%EV -16.62%E -7.73%K -14.45%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 27.84%EV -13.00%E -4.26%K -6.34%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 32.66%EV -15.00%E -5.77%K -9.37%G +0.000%17.8%2026-10-04 01:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%172.7%2026-10-04 01:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%172.7%2026-10-04 01:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%172.7%2026-10-04 01:30