The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Deportivo Riestra v Union Santa Fe

Kickoff: 2026-10-20 00:15 UTC

Final: Deportivo Riestra 1–1 Union Santa Fe

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

38 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Deportivo Riestra (Local)

Prediction 44.54%2.24fair odd
EV +1.12%
Edge +0.492%
Kelly +0.879%
Growth +0.010%

assuming max odds 2.27

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.26%44.50%44.60%46.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.872.082.082.2753.48%48.06%48.08%44.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Union Santa Fe (Visit)

Prediction 25.08%3.99fair odd
EV +5.34%
Edge +1.27%
Kelly +1.67%
Growth +0.089%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.00%25.11%25.03%26.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.683.654.2029.41%27.18%27.40%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.38%3.29fair odd
EV -3.10%
Edge -0.973%
Kelly -1.42%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.19

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.43%30.39%30.37%32.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.033.053.1935.71%33.05%32.79%31.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Deportivo Riestra (Local): 44.54%; Union Santa Fe (Visit): 25.08%; Draw: 30.38%. For Union Santa Fe (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.99. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.34%.

Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 46.44%EV -7.35%E -3.53%K -6.80%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.00%EV +5.34%E +1.27%K +1.67%G +0.089%3.16I 31.65%NM 30.57%EV -4.01%E -1.27%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-20 00:05
LowVig.ag🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 46.44%EV -7.35%E -3.53%K -6.80%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.00%EV +5.34%E +1.27%K +1.67%G +0.089%3.16I 31.65%NM 30.57%EV -4.01%E -1.27%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-20 00:05
BetAnything🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.27%EV -6.46%E -3.07%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.07%EV -0.934%E -0.236%K -0.317%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.67%EV -5.84%E -1.88%K -2.78%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-20 00:05
Pinnacle🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 44.77%EV -3.78%E -1.75%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.92%EV -2.69%E -0.693%K -0.934%G +0.000%3.19I 31.35%NM 30.31%EV -3.10%E -0.973%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-20 00:00
Codere (IT)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.61%EV -5.57%E -2.63%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.89%EV -4.70%E -1.24%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.51%EV -5.84%E -1.88%K -2.78%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-19 23:45
FanDuel🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.84%EV -6.46%E -3.07%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -4.70%E -1.24%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -5.84%E -1.88%K -2.78%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-20 00:05
DraftKings🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.84%EV -6.46%E -3.07%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -4.70%E -1.24%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -5.84%E -1.88%K -2.78%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-20 00:10
SportsBet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.86%EV -7.35%E -3.53%K -6.80%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.55%EV -4.70%E -1.24%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.59%EV -7.36%E -2.41%K -3.59%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-19 23:50
Marathon Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -6.46%E -3.07%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.48%EV -4.70%E -1.24%K -1.68%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.22%EV -9.48%E -3.18%K -4.79%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-19 23:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.99%EV -8.68%E -4.24%K -8.27%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -4.70%E -1.24%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -8.87%E -2.96%K -4.44%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-19 23:45
1xBet🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 42.26%EV +1.12%E +0.492%K +0.879%G +0.010%3.77I 26.53%NM 25.44%EV -5.45%E -1.45%K -1.97%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 32.30%EV -9.79%E -3.29%K -4.97%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-20 00:10
Unibet (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.69%EV -6.46%E -3.07%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -5.95%E -1.59%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -5.84%E -1.88%K -2.78%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-19 23:45
PlayUp🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.48%EV -7.35%E -3.53%K -6.80%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.67%EV -5.95%E -1.59%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.84%EV -8.87%E -2.96%K -4.44%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-20 00:05
Unibet (SE)🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.41%EV -3.78%E -1.75%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.34%EV -7.20%E -1.95%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -8.87%E -2.96%K -4.44%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-20 00:09
Unibet🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.41%EV -3.78%E -1.75%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.34%EV -7.20%E -1.95%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -8.87%E -2.96%K -4.44%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-20 00:09
NordicBet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.78%EV -7.35%E -3.53%K -6.80%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -7.20%E -1.95%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -5.84%E -1.88%K -2.78%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-19 23:55
Betsson🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.78%EV -7.35%E -3.53%K -6.80%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -7.20%E -1.95%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -5.84%E -1.88%K -2.78%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-19 23:55
BetRivers🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 44.23%EV -7.79%E -3.76%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.74%EV -7.20%E -1.95%K -2.67%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.03%EV -10.39%E -3.52%K -5.33%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-19 23:45
theScore Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -4.23%E -1.97%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.68%EV -8.46%E -2.32%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.73%EV -7.36%E -2.41%K -3.59%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-19 23:45
Bovada🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.39%EV -6.46%E -3.07%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.54%EV -8.46%E -2.32%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.07%EV -5.84%E -1.88%K -2.78%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-19 23:45
Fanatics🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.65%EV -4.23%E -1.97%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -9.71%E -2.70%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -5.84%E -1.88%K -2.78%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-20 00:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.65%EV -4.23%E -1.97%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -9.71%E -2.70%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -5.84%E -1.88%K -2.78%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-19 23:35
Betway🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.23%EV -6.46%E -3.07%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -9.71%E -2.70%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -5.84%E -1.88%K -2.78%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-19 23:40
BoyleSports🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.39%EV -8.68%E -4.24%K -8.27%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -9.71%E -2.70%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.33%EV -8.87%E -2.96%K -4.44%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-19 23:44
Paddy Power🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.54%EV -10.91%E -5.46%K -10.91%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.74%EV -9.71%E -2.70%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -11.91%E -4.11%K -6.27%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-20 00:05
Sky Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.54%EV -10.91%E -5.46%K -10.91%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.74%EV -9.71%E -2.70%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -11.91%E -4.11%K -6.27%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-19 23:44
Bet Right🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.86%EV -6.46%E -3.07%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.94%EV -10.97%E -3.09%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.20%EV -7.36%E -2.41%K -3.59%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-20 00:05
Winamax (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.45%EV -8.68%E -4.24%K -8.27%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.67%EV -10.97%E -3.09%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.88%EV -7.36%E -2.41%K -3.59%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-19 23:45
NetBet (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.48%EV -10.91%E -5.46%K -10.91%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.06%EV -10.97%E -3.09%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 30.46%EV -11.30%E -3.87%K -5.89%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-20 00:09
Unibet (FR)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 46.05%EV -16.70%E -8.93%K -19.20%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.26%EV -10.97%E -3.09%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.69%EV -11.91%E -4.11%K -6.27%G +0.000%16.1%2026-10-19 23:49
BetMGM🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.33%EV -4.23%E -1.97%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -12.22%E -3.49%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -5.84%E -1.88%K -2.78%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-19 23:35
betfred_uk🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.50%EV -8.68%E -4.24%K -8.27%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -12.22%E -3.49%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -5.84%E -1.88%K -2.78%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-20 00:05
Betr (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.07%EV -8.68%E -4.24%K -8.27%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -12.22%E -3.49%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.12%EV -8.87%E -2.96%K -4.44%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-19 23:45
Virgin Bet🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 43.29%EV -7.79%E -3.76%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.60%EV -12.22%E -3.49%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.11%EV -12.52%E -4.35%K -6.66%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-20 00:10
LiveScore Bet🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 43.29%EV -7.79%E -3.76%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.60%EV -12.22%E -3.49%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.11%EV -12.52%E -4.35%K -6.66%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-20 00:10
Winamax (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -10.91%E -5.46%K -10.91%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -12.22%E -3.49%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -8.87%E -2.96%K -4.44%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-19 23:45
Betclic (FR)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 44.63%EV -12.69%E -6.48%K -13.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.99%EV -12.22%E -3.49%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.37%EV -12.52%E -4.35%K -6.66%G +0.000%14.3%2026-10-19 23:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 43.19%EV -10.02%E -4.96%K -9.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.66%EV -14.73%E -4.33%K -6.14%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.16%EV -14.95%E -5.34%K -8.31%G +0.000%14.6%2026-10-20 00:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.20I 45.45%NM 44.91%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.70%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.40%1.2%2026-10-20 00:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.20I 45.45%NM 44.91%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.70%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.40%1.2%2026-10-20 00:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.20I 45.45%NM 44.91%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.70%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.40%1.2%2026-10-20 00:10
Kalshi◎2.17I 46.08%NM 45.16%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.50%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.34%2.0%2026-10-20 00:00
Smarkets◎2.18I 45.87%NM 44.92%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.48%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.60%2.1%2026-10-20 00:10