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Deportivo Riestra v San Lorenzo

Kickoff: 2026-03-22 21:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Deportivo Riestra (Local)

Prediction 36.98%2.70fair odd
EV -5.70%
Edge -2.24%
Kelly -3.68%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.90%36.98%36.98%37.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.432.502.502.5541.15%40.05%40.00%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

San Lorenzo (Visit)

Prediction 29.94%3.34fair odd
EV -5.70%
Edge -1.81%
Kelly -2.65%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.82%29.94%29.94%29.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.093.103.1533.33%32.35%32.26%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 33.09%3.02fair odd
EV -5.70%
Edge -2.00%
Kelly -3.08%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.07%33.09%33.09%33.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.792.802.8537.04%35.82%35.71%35.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Deportivo Riestra (Local): 36.98%; San Lorenzo (Visit): 29.94%; Draw: 33.09%. For Deportivo Riestra (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.70. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.55, with an expected value of -5.70%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.98%EV -5.70%E -2.24%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.94%EV -5.70%E -1.81%K -2.65%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.09%EV -5.70%E -2.00%K -3.08%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-13 01:24
Unibet (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.98%EV -5.70%E -2.24%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.94%EV -5.70%E -1.81%K -2.65%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.09%EV -5.70%E -2.00%K -3.08%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-13 01:24
BetRivers🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.98%EV -5.70%E -2.24%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.94%EV -5.70%E -1.81%K -2.65%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.09%EV -5.70%E -2.00%K -3.08%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-13 01:24
LiveScore Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.12%EV -9.40%E -3.84%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.82%EV -8.70%E -2.85%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.07%EV -9.01%E -3.28%K -5.15%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-13 01:24
Virgin Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.12%EV -9.40%E -3.84%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.82%EV -8.70%E -2.85%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.07%EV -9.01%E -3.28%K -5.15%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-13 01:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 36.90%EV -10.14%E -4.17%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -10.19%E -3.40%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.21%EV -10.67%E -3.95%K -6.27%G +0.000%11.5%2026-03-13 01:24
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.