Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Deportivo Riestra v Central Córdoba

Kickoff: 2026-10-05 19:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

38 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Deportivo Riestra (Local)

Prediction 49.78%2.01fair odd
EV -3.43%
Edge -1.77%
Kelly -3.65%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.94

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.65%49.87%49.82%51.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.731.851.871.9457.80%53.92%53.62%51.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Central Córdoba (Visit)

Prediction 19.91%5.02fair odd
EV +5.31%
Edge +1.00%
Kelly +1.24%
Growth +0.066%

assuming max odds 5.29

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.22%19.89%19.79%21.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.684.725.2923.81%21.39%21.19%18.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.32%3.30fair odd
EV -4.20%
Edge -1.33%
Kelly -1.94%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.16

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.06%30.24%30.39%31.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.063.103.1634.72%32.70%32.26%31.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Deportivo Riestra (Local): 49.78%; Central Córdoba (Visit): 19.91%; Draw: 30.32%. For Central Córdoba (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.02. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.29, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.31%.

Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 51.27%EV -6.42%E -3.42%K -7.30%G +0.000%5.29I 18.90%NM 18.22%EV +5.31%E +1.00%K +1.24%G +0.066%3.16I 31.65%NM 30.50%EV -4.20%E -1.33%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-05 14:41
Unibet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.30%EV -8.91%E -4.87%K -10.74%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.41%EV +1.53%E +0.300%K +0.373%G +0.006%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.29%EV -6.02%E -1.94%K -2.87%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-22 09:59
Unibet (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.30%EV -8.91%E -4.87%K -10.74%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.41%EV +1.53%E +0.300%K +0.373%G +0.006%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.29%EV -6.02%E -1.94%K -2.87%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-22 09:59
LowVig.ag🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 49.76%EV -3.43%E -1.77%K -3.65%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.70%EV -2.45%E -0.500%K -0.629%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 30.55%EV -4.20%E -1.33%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-04 23:50
BetOnline.ag🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 49.76%EV -3.43%E -1.77%K -3.65%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.70%EV -2.45%E -0.500%K -0.629%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 30.55%EV -4.20%E -1.33%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-04 23:50
BetAnything🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 49.76%EV -3.43%E -1.77%K -3.65%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.70%EV -2.45%E -0.500%K -0.629%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 30.55%EV -4.20%E -1.33%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-04 23:50
Betsson🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.25%EV -6.42%E -3.42%K -7.30%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.28%EV -2.45%E -0.500%K -0.629%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.47%EV -6.02%E -1.94%K -2.87%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-05 13:54
NordicBet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.25%EV -6.42%E -3.42%K -7.30%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.28%EV -2.45%E -0.500%K -0.629%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.47%EV -6.02%E -1.94%K -2.87%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-05 13:54
BetRivers🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.83%EV -10.40%E -5.78%K -13.00%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.67%EV -2.45%E -0.500%K -0.629%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.50%EV -9.05%E -3.02%K -4.53%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-22 09:59
Bovada🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.18%EV -6.92%E -3.70%K -7.95%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.55%EV -4.44%E -0.926%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.27%EV -6.02%E -1.94%K -2.87%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-05 14:54
DraftKings🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.18%EV -6.92%E -3.70%K -7.95%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.55%EV -4.44%E -0.926%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.27%EV -6.02%E -1.94%K -2.87%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-05 04:11
SportsBet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.20%EV -7.91%E -4.28%K -9.31%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.35%EV -4.44%E -0.926%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.45%EV -7.54%E -2.47%K -3.68%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-05 14:55
FanDuel🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.72%EV -8.91%E -4.87%K -10.74%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.34%EV -4.44%E -0.926%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.94%EV -6.02%E -1.94%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-05 14:53
Fanatics🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.55%EV -4.93%E -2.58%K -5.42%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.92%EV -5.44%E -1.14%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.53%EV -6.02%E -1.94%K -2.87%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-05 14:45
Betway🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.44%EV -6.42%E -3.42%K -7.30%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.57%EV -5.44%E -1.14%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.99%EV -9.05%E -3.02%K -4.53%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-05 13:10
PlayUp🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.85%EV -7.91%E -4.28%K -9.31%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.41%EV -5.44%E -1.14%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -9.05%E -3.02%K -4.53%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-05 13:54
BoyleSports🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.60%EV -8.91%E -4.87%K -10.74%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.11%EV -5.44%E -1.14%K -1.45%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.30%EV -12.08%E -4.17%K -6.36%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-05 10:05
Virgin Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 50.69%EV -11.90%E -6.72%K -15.45%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.89%EV -5.44%E -1.14%K -1.45%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.42%EV -10.57%E -3.58%K -5.42%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-22 08:19
LiveScore Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 50.69%EV -11.90%E -6.72%K -15.45%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.89%EV -5.44%E -1.14%K -1.45%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.42%EV -10.57%E -3.58%K -5.42%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-22 08:19
1xBet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.48%EV -4.43%E -2.31%K -4.82%G +0.000%4.69I 21.32%NM 20.26%EV -6.63%E -1.41%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 30.26%EV -4.81%E -1.53%K -2.25%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-30 09:39
Codere (IT)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.47%EV -4.93%E -2.58%K -5.42%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.54%EV -8.42%E -1.83%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.99%EV -4.50%E -1.43%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-05 06:29
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.23%EV -4.93%E -2.58%K -5.42%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.44%EV -8.42%E -1.83%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.33%EV -6.02%E -1.94%K -2.87%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-05 11:24
Unibet (UK)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.36%EV -5.43%E -2.86%K -6.03%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.39%EV -8.42%E -1.83%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.25%EV -6.02%E -1.94%K -2.87%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-05 06:24
Marathon Bet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.53%EV -6.42%E -3.42%K -7.30%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.24%EV -8.42%E -1.83%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 30.23%EV -6.63%E -2.15%K -3.19%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-30 12:17
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 50.59%EV -13.89%E -8.03%K -19.02%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.03%EV -8.42%E -1.83%K -2.34%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.39%EV -12.69%E -4.41%K -6.75%G +0.000%14.3%2026-09-22 08:14
BetMGM🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.01%EV -4.93%E -2.58%K -5.42%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.80%EV -10.42%E -2.31%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.19%EV -6.02%E -1.94%K -2.87%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-05 11:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.14%EV -5.43%E -2.86%K -6.03%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.75%EV -10.42%E -2.31%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -6.02%E -1.94%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-05 14:25
betfred_uk🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%EV -5.43%E -2.86%K -6.03%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.54%EV -10.42%E -2.31%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -9.05%E -3.02%K -4.53%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-05 14:54
Bet Right🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 49.43%EV -7.42%E -3.99%K -8.62%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.43%EV -10.42%E -2.31%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.14%EV -7.54%E -2.47%K -3.68%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-05 14:54
Paddy Power🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.00%EV -10.40%E -5.78%K -13.00%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.00%EV -10.42%E -2.31%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -9.05%E -3.02%K -4.53%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-05 14:54
NetBet (FR)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.24%EV -13.89%E -8.03%K -19.02%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.70%EV -10.42%E -2.31%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.06%EV -7.54%E -2.47%K -3.68%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-05 08:53
theScore Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.78%EV -4.93%E -2.58%K -5.42%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.17%EV -12.41%E -2.82%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -6.02%E -1.94%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-05 06:25
Betr (AU)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.09%EV -7.91%E -4.28%K -9.31%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.64%EV -12.41%E -2.82%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.27%EV -9.05%E -3.02%K -4.53%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-05 14:55
Betclic (FR)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 49.60%EV -9.41%E -5.17%K -11.47%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.51%EV -12.41%E -2.82%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 29.89%EV -8.44%E -2.80%K -4.18%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-05 07:55
Unibet (FR)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 50.65%EV -13.89%E -8.03%K -19.02%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.14%EV -13.40%E -3.08%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.21%EV -9.05%E -3.02%K -4.53%G +0.000%14.1%2026-10-05 06:24
Sky Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.11%EV -10.40%E -5.78%K -13.00%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.41%EV -13.80%E -3.19%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.48%EV -12.08%E -4.17%K -6.36%G +0.000%13.1%2026-10-05 15:03
Winamax (DE)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 49.47%EV -8.41%E -4.57%K -10.01%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.17%EV -14.40%E -3.35%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.36%EV -6.02%E -1.94%K -2.87%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-05 06:24
Winamax (FR)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 49.26%EV -9.41%E -5.17%K -11.47%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.35%EV -16.39%E -3.90%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.39%EV -7.54%E -2.47%K -3.68%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-05 06:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.94I 51.55%NM 50.88%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.28%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.84%1.3%2026-10-05 14:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.93I 51.81%NM 51.01%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.23%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.76%1.6%2026-10-05 15:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.93I 51.81%NM 51.01%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.23%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.76%1.6%2026-10-05 15:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.93I 51.81%NM 51.01%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.23%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.76%1.6%2026-10-05 15:15
Kalshi◎1.92I 52.08%NM 51.03%5.26I 19.01%NM 18.63%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.34%2.1%2026-10-05 15:10