Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Defensa y Justicia v Independiente

2026-11-02 22:00 UTC — Primera División - Argentina

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

43%

28%

29%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Defensa y Justicia (Local)

Prediction 42.66%2.34fair odd

EV -5.72%

Edge -2.59%

Kelly -4.73%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.21

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

42.05%42.69%42.64%43.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.962.122.152.2151.02%47.15%46.51%45.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Independiente (Visit)

Prediction 27.96%3.58fair odd

EV -3.53%

Edge -1.02%

Kelly -1.44%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

27.15%28.03%27.92%28.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.003.233.203.4533.33%31.00%31.25%28.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.38%3.40fair odd

EV -4.53%

Edge -1.39%

Kelly -2.01%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

28.67%29.28%29.43%29.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.903.103.153.2534.48%32.25%31.75%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Defensa y Justicia (Local): 42.66%; Independiente (Visit): 27.96%; Draw: 29.38%. For Independiente (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.58. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.45, with an expected value of -3.53%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Draw	Margin	Updated
1xBet🎯	2.21I 45.25%NM 42.90%EV -5.72%E -2.59%K -4.73%G +0.000%	3.44I 29.07%NM 27.56%EV -3.81%E -1.11%K -1.56%G +0.000%	3.21I 31.15%NM 29.54%EV -5.70%E -1.78%K -2.58%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-10-24 23:05
Fanatics🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -6.14%E -2.79%K -5.12%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -4.93%E -1.45%K -2.05%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -6.00%E -1.87%K -2.73%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-10-24 23:15
Unibet🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.67%EV -6.14%E -2.79%K -5.12%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -7.72%E -2.34%K -3.36%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -4.53%E -1.39%K -2.01%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-10-24 23:05
Unibet (SE)🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.67%EV -6.14%E -2.79%K -5.12%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -7.72%E -2.34%K -3.36%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -4.53%E -1.39%K -2.01%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-10-24 23:05
Marathon Bet🎯	2.17I 46.08%NM 42.90%EV -7.42%E -3.42%K -6.35%G +0.000%	3.38I 29.59%NM 27.54%EV -5.49%E -1.62%K -2.30%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 29.55%EV -7.47%E -2.37%K -3.47%G +0.000%	7.4%	2026-10-24 23:04
BetRivers🎯	2.16I 46.30%NM 42.55%EV -7.85%E -3.63%K -6.77%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 28.28%EV -9.12%E -2.81%K -4.05%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 29.18%EV -7.47%E -2.37%K -3.47%G +0.000%	8.8%	2026-10-24 23:05
Bovada🎯	2.15I 46.51%NM 43.57%EV -8.28%E -3.85%K -7.20%G +0.000%	3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -3.53%E -1.02%K -1.44%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -6.00%E -1.87%K -2.73%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-10-24 23:14
BoyleSports🎯	2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -8.28%E -3.85%K -7.20%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -10.52%E -3.29%K -4.78%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -6.00%E -1.87%K -2.73%G +0.000%	9.0%	2026-10-25 00:04
Virgin Bet🎯	2.10I 47.62%NM 42.46%EV -10.41%E -4.96%K -9.46%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 28.31%EV -11.92%E -3.78%K -5.54%G +0.000%	3.05I 32.79%NM 29.23%EV -10.40%E -3.41%K -5.08%G +0.000%	12.2%	2026-10-24 23:05
LiveScore Bet🎯	2.10I 47.62%NM 42.46%EV -10.41%E -4.96%K -9.46%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 28.31%EV -11.92%E -3.78%K -5.54%G +0.000%	3.05I 32.79%NM 29.23%EV -10.40%E -3.41%K -5.08%G +0.000%	12.2%	2026-10-24 23:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯	2.06I 48.54%NM 42.53%EV -12.12%E -5.88%K -11.43%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 28.26%EV -13.32%E -4.30%K -6.34%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 29.21%EV -11.87%E -3.96%K -5.94%G +0.000%	14.1%	2026-10-24 23:04
Betclic (FR)🎯	2.05I 48.78%NM 42.52%EV -12.54%E -6.12%K -11.95%G +0.000%	3.12I 32.05%NM 27.94%EV -12.76%E -4.09%K -6.02%G +0.000%	2.95I 33.90%NM 29.55%EV -13.34%E -4.52%K -6.84%G +0.000%	14.7%	2026-10-24 23:04
Winamax (DE)🎯	2.05I 48.78%NM 42.45%EV -12.54%E -6.12%K -11.95%G +0.000%	3.05I 32.79%NM 28.53%EV -14.71%E -4.82%K -7.18%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 29.01%EV -11.87%E -3.96%K -5.94%G +0.000%	14.9%	2026-10-24 23:04
Winamax (FR)🎯	2.05I 48.78%NM 42.05%EV -12.54%E -6.12%K -11.95%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 28.73%EV -16.11%E -5.37%K -8.06%G +0.000%	2.95I 33.90%NM 29.22%EV -13.34%E -4.52%K -6.84%G +0.000%	16.0%	2026-10-24 23:05
Unibet (FR)🎯	1.96I 51.02%NM 43.33%EV -16.38%E -8.36%K -17.07%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 27.39%EV -13.32%E -4.30%K -6.34%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 29.28%EV -14.81%E -5.11%K -7.80%G +0.000%	17.8%	2026-10-24 23:05

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.