The School of Odds
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Defensa y Justicia v Independiente

Kickoff: 2026-10-31 17:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Defensa y Justicia (Local)

Prediction 41.62%2.40fair odd
EV -4.26%
Edge -1.85%
Kelly -3.28%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.68%41.68%41.55%42.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.222.242.3047.62%45.13%44.64%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Independiente (Visit)

Prediction 28.71%3.48fair odd
EV -6.71%
Edge -2.06%
Kelly -2.98%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.77%28.70%28.74%30.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.193.203.2534.48%31.37%31.25%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.67%3.37fair odd
EV -2.39%
Edge -0.725%
Kelly -1.04%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.29

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.77%29.61%29.71%30.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.973.123.103.2933.67%32.03%32.26%30.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Defensa y Justicia (Local): 41.62%; Independiente (Visit): 28.71%; Draw: 29.67%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.37. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.29, with an expected value of -2.39%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.47%EV -4.26%E -1.85%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.53%EV -7.28%E -2.25%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 28.99%EV -2.39%E -0.725%K -1.04%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-27 17:35
Betsson🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.75%EV -6.34%E -2.82%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -6.71%E -2.06%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.35%EV -5.06%E -1.58%K -2.30%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-27 22:05
NordicBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.75%EV -6.34%E -2.82%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -6.71%E -2.06%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.35%EV -5.06%E -1.58%K -2.30%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-27 22:05
SportsBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.55%EV -6.34%E -2.82%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.68%EV -9.58%E -3.04%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -3.57%E -1.10%K -1.59%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-18 18:48
Bovada🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.55%EV -6.34%E -2.82%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -6.71%E -2.06%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.68%EV -6.54%E -2.08%K -3.04%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-27 22:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.35%EV -6.34%E -2.82%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -6.71%E -2.06%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -8.02%E -2.59%K -3.82%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-27 22:05
FanDuel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.17%EV -6.34%E -2.82%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -8.14%E -2.54%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -8.02%E -2.59%K -3.82%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-27 22:01
Marathon Bet🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 41.51%EV -6.76%E -3.02%K -5.45%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 28.70%EV -7.00%E -2.16%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.80%EV -7.43%E -2.38%K -3.50%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-27 17:20
DraftKings🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.90%EV -8.43%E -3.83%K -7.02%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -6.71%E -2.06%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -8.02%E -2.59%K -3.82%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-25 22:26
PlayUp🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -8.43%E -3.83%K -7.02%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.14%EV -9.58%E -3.04%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.14%EV -6.54%E -2.08%K -3.04%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-27 22:05
Bet Right🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -8.43%E -3.83%K -7.02%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -8.14%E -2.54%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -8.02%E -2.59%K -3.82%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-27 22:05
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.93%EV -8.43%E -3.83%K -7.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -11.01%E -3.55%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.02%EV -10.99%E -3.66%K -5.50%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-27 22:02
betfred_uk🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -10.51%E -4.89%K -9.14%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -8.14%E -2.54%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -8.02%E -2.59%K -3.82%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-27 13:40
Sky Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.68%EV -10.51%E -4.89%K -9.14%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.16%EV -16.75%E -5.78%K -8.82%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.16%EV -10.99%E -3.66%K -5.50%G +0.000%14.3%2026-10-18 19:07
NetBet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.31%EV -12.59%E -5.99%K -11.44%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.77%EV -8.14%E -2.54%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 29.92%EV -11.88%E -4.00%K -6.03%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-27 23:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.28I 43.86%NM 41.42%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.06%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.51%5.9%2026-10-27 20:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.28I 43.86%NM 41.42%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.06%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.51%5.9%2026-10-27 21:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.28I 43.86%NM 41.42%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.06%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.51%5.9%2026-10-27 21:00
Smarkets◎1.03I 97.09%NM 36.28%1.09I 91.74%NM 34.29%1.27I 78.74%NM 29.43%167.6%2026-10-27 02:30

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