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Defensa y Justicia v Gimnasia Mendoza

2026-09-13 20:00 UTC — Primera División - Argentina

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Defensa y Justicia (Local)

Prediction 42.11%2.38fair odd
EV -6.53%
Edge -2.94%
Kelly -5.35%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.22

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.67%42.11%42.11%43.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.932.102.132.2251.81%47.68%47.06%45.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Gimnasia Mendoza (Visit)

Prediction 28.95%3.45fair odd
EV +2.18%
Edge +0.619%
Kelly +0.863%
Growth +0.019%

assuming max odds 3.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.84%28.95%28.95%29.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.193.173.5333.33%31.34%31.50%28.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.95%3.45fair odd
EV -5.92%
Edge -1.82%
Kelly -2.63%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.71%28.95%28.95%30.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.083.083.2534.72%32.51%32.52%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Defensa y Justicia (Local): 42.11%; Gimnasia Mendoza (Visit): 28.95%; Draw: 28.95%. For Gimnasia Mendoza (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.45. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 3.53, producing a positive expected value of +2.18%.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.77%EV -6.53%E -2.94%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 26.90%EV +2.18%E +0.619%K +0.863%G +0.019%3.13I 31.95%NM 30.33%EV -9.39%E -3.00%K -4.41%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-29 16:55
SportsBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -7.37%E -3.35%K -6.14%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -5.92%E -1.82%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -5.92%E -1.82%K -2.63%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-29 17:05
FanDuel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -7.37%E -3.35%K -6.14%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -7.37%E -2.30%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -7.37%E -2.30%K -3.35%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-29 17:04
Winamax (DE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.85%EV -15.79%E -7.89%K -15.79%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.40%EV -7.37%E -2.30%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.75%EV -11.71%E -3.84%K -5.71%G +0.000%14.0%2026-08-29 16:40
Betclic (FR)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 43.81%EV -18.74%E -9.71%K -20.15%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 26.84%EV -8.82%E -2.80%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.36%EV -16.63%E -5.77%K -8.85%G +0.000%18.3%2026-08-29 16:40
Paddy Power🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.89%EV -9.47%E -4.41%K -8.24%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -10.26%E -3.31%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -10.26%E -3.31%K -4.89%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-29 17:10
Winamax (FR)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 43.50%EV -16.63%E -8.40%K -16.97%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.79%EV -10.26%E -3.31%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.71%EV -13.16%E -4.39%K -6.58%G +0.000%16.1%2026-08-29 16:40
Sky Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.67%EV -11.58%E -5.51%K -10.53%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.17%EV -13.16%E -4.39%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.17%EV -13.16%E -4.39%K -6.58%G +0.000%14.3%2026-08-29 17:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.06I 94.34%NM 33.33%1.06I 94.34%NM 33.33%1.06I 94.34%NM 33.33%183.0%2026-08-29 17:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.06I 94.34%NM 33.33%1.06I 94.34%NM 33.33%1.06I 94.34%NM 33.33%183.0%2026-08-29 17:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-08-29 17:10