The School of Odds

Defensa y Justicia v Aldosivi Mar del Plata

Kickoff: 2026-07-24 00:45 UTC

Final: Defensa y Justicia 1–1 Aldosivi Mar del Plata

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. See how the models score across every settled game →

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Head to Head

38 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Defensa y Justicia (Local)

Prediction 48.44%2.06fair odd
EV -2.15%
Edge -1.06%
Kelly -2.11%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.27%48.61%48.51%50.82%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.781.901.912.0256%53%52%50%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Aldosivi Mar del Plata (Visit)

Prediction 21.17%4.72fair odd
EV +1.62%
Edge +0.337%
Kelly +0.425%
Growth +0.007%

assuming max odds 4.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.79%21.09%21.07%22.18%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
4.004.434.404.8025%23%23%21%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 30.39%3.29fair odd
EV -2.75%
Edge -0.860%
Kelly -1.25%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.32%30.30%30.42%31.78%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.873.053.083.2035%33%33%31%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag1.91I 52.36%NM 49.85%EV -7.48%E -3.92%K -8.22%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.83%EV +1.62%E +0.337%K +0.425%G +0.007%3.14I 31.85%NM 30.32%EV -4.58%E -1.46%K -2.14%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-23 23:40
LowVig.ag1.91I 52.36%NM 49.85%EV -7.48%E -3.92%K -8.22%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.83%EV +1.62%E +0.337%K +0.425%G +0.007%3.14I 31.85%NM 30.32%EV -4.58%E -1.46%K -2.14%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-23 23:35
BetAnything1.91I 52.36%NM 49.85%EV -7.48%E -3.92%K -8.22%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.83%EV +1.62%E +0.337%K +0.425%G +0.007%3.14I 31.85%NM 30.32%EV -4.58%E -1.46%K -2.14%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-23 23:35
Unibet1.86I 53.76%NM 50.69%EV -9.90%E -5.32%K -11.51%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.85%EV +0.558%E +0.117%K +0.149%G +0.001%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.46%EV -2.75%E -0.860%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-24 00:25
Unibet (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 50.82%EV -10.39%E -5.61%K -12.22%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.79%EV +0.558%E +0.117%K +0.149%G +0.001%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.38%EV -2.75%E -0.860%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-24 00:25
BetRivers1.85I 54.05%NM 50.72%EV -10.39%E -5.61%K -12.22%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.96%EV -0.501%E -0.107%K -0.135%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -2.75%E -0.860%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-24 00:25
Pinnacle1.99I 50.25%NM 48.49%EV -3.60%E -1.81%K -3.64%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.98%EV -2.62%E -0.569%K -0.727%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 30.54%EV -3.97%E -1.26%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.6%2026-07-24 00:35
FanDuel1.95I 51.28%NM 48.22%EV -5.54%E -2.84%K -5.83%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.44%EV -2.62%E -0.569%K -0.727%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -8.83%E -2.94%K -4.42%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-24 00:24
Virgin Bet1.80I 55.56%NM 50.71%EV -12.81%E -7.12%K -16.01%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.84%EV -2.62%E -0.569%K -0.727%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.45%EV -5.79%E -1.87%K -2.76%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-24 00:25
LiveScore Bet1.80I 55.56%NM 50.71%EV -12.81%E -7.12%K -16.01%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.84%EV -2.62%E -0.569%K -0.727%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.45%EV -5.79%E -1.87%K -2.76%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-24 00:25
1xBet2.02I 49.50%NM 47.45%EV -2.15%E -1.06%K -2.11%G +0.000%4.56I 21.93%NM 21.02%EV -3.46%E -0.760%K -0.973%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 31.53%EV -7.61%E -2.50%K -3.73%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-24 00:40
Codere (IT)1.95I 51.28%NM 48.49%EV -5.54%E -2.84%K -5.83%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.01%EV -4.73%E -1.05%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.50%EV -5.79%E -1.87%K -2.76%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-24 00:20
Fanatics1.91I 52.36%NM 49.47%EV -7.48%E -3.92%K -8.22%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.00%EV -4.73%E -1.05%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.53%EV -2.75%E -0.860%K -1.25%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-23 22:35
SportsBet1.94I 51.55%NM 48.13%EV -6.03%E -3.11%K -6.41%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.75%EV -4.73%E -1.05%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -8.83%E -2.94%K -4.42%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-24 00:25
BoyleSports1.87I 53.48%NM 49.53%EV -9.42%E -5.04%K -10.82%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.58%EV -4.73%E -1.05%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -5.79%E -1.87%K -2.76%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-21 10:05
LeoVegas (SE)1.78I 56.18%NM 50.53%EV -13.78%E -7.74%K -17.66%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.99%EV -4.73%E -1.05%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.49%EV -7.31%E -2.40%K -3.57%G +0.000%11.2%2026-07-24 00:25
Betsson1.98I 50.51%NM 47.75%EV -4.09%E -2.06%K -4.17%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.25%EV -5.79%E -1.30%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.00%EV -7.31%E -2.40%K -3.57%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-24 00:35
NordicBet1.98I 50.51%NM 47.75%EV -4.09%E -2.06%K -4.17%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.25%EV -5.79%E -1.30%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.00%EV -7.31%E -2.40%K -3.57%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-24 00:35
theScore Bet1.95I 51.28%NM 48.26%EV -5.54%E -2.84%K -5.83%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.39%EV -6.85%E -1.56%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.36%EV -5.79%E -1.87%K -2.76%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-24 00:20
Bovada1.91I 52.36%NM 48.54%EV -7.48%E -3.92%K -8.22%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.07%EV -6.85%E -1.56%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.39%EV -7.31%E -2.40%K -3.57%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-24 00:39
Everygame1.91I 52.36%NM 48.54%EV -7.48%E -3.92%K -8.22%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.07%EV -6.85%E -1.56%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.39%EV -7.31%E -2.40%K -3.57%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-24 00:19
PlayUp1.95I 51.28%NM 47.27%EV -5.54%E -2.84%K -5.83%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.95%EV -6.85%E -1.56%K -2.02%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.78%EV -11.87%E -4.09%K -6.25%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-24 00:35
Betway1.95I 51.28%NM 48.09%EV -5.54%E -2.84%K -5.83%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.66%EV -8.33%E -1.92%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.25%EV -5.79%E -1.87%K -2.76%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-24 00:39
Marathon Bet1.95I 51.28%NM 47.81%EV -5.54%E -2.84%K -5.83%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.53%EV -8.33%E -1.92%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 30.66%EV -7.61%E -2.50%K -3.73%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-24 00:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.87I 53.48%NM 48.05%EV -9.42%E -5.04%K -10.82%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.75%EV -8.33%E -1.92%K -2.50%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.20%EV -12.48%E -4.33%K -6.64%G +0.000%11.3%2026-07-24 00:30
Paddy Power1.87I 53.48%NM 48.05%EV -9.42%E -5.04%K -10.82%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.75%EV -8.33%E -1.92%K -2.50%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.20%EV -12.48%E -4.33%K -6.64%G +0.000%11.3%2026-07-24 00:25
DraftKings1.95I 51.28%NM 48.02%EV -5.54%E -2.84%K -5.83%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.78%EV -8.97%E -2.09%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.21%EV -5.79%E -1.87%K -2.76%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-24 00:25
Bet Right1.88I 53.19%NM 48.81%EV -8.93%E -4.75%K -10.15%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.59%EV -10.03%E -2.36%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -5.79%E -1.87%K -2.76%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-24 00:40
Betclic (FR)1.84I 54.35%NM 48.52%EV -10.87%E -5.91%K -12.94%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.01%EV -10.03%E -2.36%K -3.09%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 30.47%EV -10.96%E -3.74%K -5.68%G +0.000%12.0%2026-07-24 00:20
Ladbrokes (UK)1.95I 51.28%NM 47.77%EV -5.54%E -2.84%K -5.83%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.18%EV -11.09%E -2.64%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -5.79%E -1.87%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-24 00:30
BetMGM1.95I 51.28%NM 47.77%EV -5.54%E -2.84%K -5.83%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.18%EV -11.09%E -2.64%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -5.79%E -1.87%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-24 00:30
betfred_uk1.90I 52.63%NM 48.42%EV -7.96%E -4.19%K -8.85%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.90%EV -11.09%E -2.64%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.68%EV -5.79%E -1.87%K -2.76%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-24 00:40
Winamax (DE)1.88I 53.19%NM 48.45%EV -8.93%E -4.75%K -10.15%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.69%EV -11.09%E -2.64%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.86%EV -7.31%E -2.40%K -3.57%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-24 00:20
Betr (AU)1.88I 53.19%NM 48.21%EV -8.93%E -4.75%K -10.15%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.58%EV -11.09%E -2.64%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.21%EV -8.83%E -2.94%K -4.42%G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-24 00:40
Sky Bet1.85I 54.05%NM 48.01%EV -10.39%E -5.61%K -12.22%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.15%EV -11.09%E -2.64%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.84%EV -12.48%E -4.33%K -6.64%G +0.000%12.6%2026-07-24 00:25
NetBet (FR)1.81I 55.25%NM 48.51%EV -12.32%E -6.81%K -15.21%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.90%EV -11.09%E -2.64%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 30.59%EV -12.78%E -4.45%K -6.83%G +0.000%13.9%2026-07-24 00:24
Unibet (FR)1.79I 55.87%NM 48.94%EV -13.29%E -7.43%K -16.83%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.86%EV -11.09%E -2.64%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.21%EV -11.87%E -4.09%K -6.25%G +0.000%14.2%2026-07-24 00:20
Winamax (FR)1.82I 54.95%NM 48.26%EV -11.84%E -6.50%K -14.44%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.96%EV -15.32%E -3.83%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.78%EV -10.35%E -3.51%K -5.31%G +0.000%13.8%2026-07-24 00:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.04I 49.02%NM 48.48%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.61%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.91%1.1%2026-07-24 00:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.04I 49.02%NM 48.48%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.61%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.91%1.1%2026-07-24 00:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.02I 49.50%NM 48.94%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.17%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.89%1.2%2026-07-24 00:30
Smarkets2.02I 49.50%NM 48.73%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.51%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.76%1.6%2026-07-24 00:40
Kalshi2.00I 50.00%NM 49.02%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.55%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.44%2.0%2026-07-24 00:35