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Defensa y Justicia v Aldosivi Mar del Plata
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Defensa y Justicia (Local)
Prediction 48.44%2.06fair odd
EV -2.15%
Edge -1.06%
Kelly -2.11%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.02
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.27%48.61%48.51%50.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.781.901.912.0256.18%52.69%52.36%49.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Aldosivi Mar del Plata (Visit)
Prediction 21.17%4.72fair odd
EV +1.62%
Edge +0.337%
Kelly +0.425%
Growth +0.007%
assuming max odds 4.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.79%21.09%21.07%22.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.434.404.8025.00%22.58%22.73%20.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 30.39%3.29fair odd
EV -2.75%
Edge -0.860%
Kelly -1.25%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.32%30.30%30.42%31.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.873.053.083.2034.84%32.74%32.52%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Defensa y Justicia (Local): 48.44%; Aldosivi Mar del Plata (Visit): 21.17%; Draw: 30.39%. For Aldosivi Mar del Plata (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.72. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.62%.
Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.85%EV -7.48%E -3.92%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.83%EV +1.62%E +0.337%K +0.425%G +0.007% | 3.14I 31.85%NM 30.32%EV -4.58%E -1.46%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-23 23:40 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.85%EV -7.48%E -3.92%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.83%EV +1.62%E +0.337%K +0.425%G +0.007% | 3.14I 31.85%NM 30.32%EV -4.58%E -1.46%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-23 23:35 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.85%EV -7.48%E -3.92%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.83%EV +1.62%E +0.337%K +0.425%G +0.007% | 3.14I 31.85%NM 30.32%EV -4.58%E -1.46%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-23 23:35 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 50.69%EV -9.90%E -5.32%K -11.51%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.85%EV +0.558%E +0.117%K +0.149%G +0.001% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.46%EV -2.75%E -0.860%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-24 00:25 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.82%EV -10.39%E -5.61%K -12.22%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.79%EV +0.558%E +0.117%K +0.149%G +0.001% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.38%EV -2.75%E -0.860%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-24 00:25 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.72%EV -10.39%E -5.61%K -12.22%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.96%EV -0.501%E -0.107%K -0.135%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -2.75%E -0.860%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-07-24 00:25 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.99I 50.25%NM 48.49%EV -3.60%E -1.81%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.98%EV -2.62%E -0.569%K -0.727%G +0.000% | 3.16I 31.65%NM 30.54%EV -3.97%E -1.26%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-07-24 00:35 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.22%EV -5.54%E -2.84%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.44%EV -2.62%E -0.569%K -0.727%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -8.83%E -2.94%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-24 00:24 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.71%EV -12.81%E -7.12%K -16.01%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.84%EV -2.62%E -0.569%K -0.727%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.45%EV -5.79%E -1.87%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-07-24 00:25 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.71%EV -12.81%E -7.12%K -16.01%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.84%EV -2.62%E -0.569%K -0.727%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.45%EV -5.79%E -1.87%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-07-24 00:25 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.45%EV -2.15%E -1.06%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 4.56I 21.93%NM 21.02%EV -3.46%E -0.760%K -0.973%G +0.000% | 3.04I 32.89%NM 31.53%EV -7.61%E -2.50%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-07-24 00:40 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.49%EV -5.54%E -2.84%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.01%EV -4.73%E -1.05%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.50%EV -5.79%E -1.87%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-24 00:20 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.47%EV -7.48%E -3.92%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.00%EV -4.73%E -1.05%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.53%EV -2.75%E -0.860%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-23 22:35 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.13%EV -6.03%E -3.11%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.75%EV -4.73%E -1.05%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -8.83%E -2.94%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-24 00:25 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.53%EV -9.42%E -5.04%K -10.82%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.58%EV -4.73%E -1.05%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -5.79%E -1.87%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-07-21 10:05 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 50.53%EV -13.78%E -7.74%K -17.66%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.99%EV -4.73%E -1.05%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.49%EV -7.31%E -2.40%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-07-24 00:25 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.75%EV -4.09%E -2.06%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 21.25%EV -5.79%E -1.30%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.00%EV -7.31%E -2.40%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-24 00:35 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.75%EV -4.09%E -2.06%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 21.25%EV -5.79%E -1.30%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.00%EV -7.31%E -2.40%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-24 00:35 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.26%EV -5.54%E -2.84%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.39%EV -6.85%E -1.56%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.36%EV -5.79%E -1.87%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-24 00:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.54%EV -7.48%E -3.92%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.07%EV -6.85%E -1.56%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.39%EV -7.31%E -2.40%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-07-24 00:39 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.54%EV -7.48%E -3.92%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.07%EV -6.85%E -1.56%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.39%EV -7.31%E -2.40%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-07-24 00:19 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.27%EV -5.54%E -2.84%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.95%EV -6.85%E -1.56%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.78%EV -11.87%E -4.09%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-07-24 00:35 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.09%EV -5.54%E -2.84%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.66%EV -8.33%E -1.92%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.25%EV -5.79%E -1.87%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-07-24 00:39 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.81%EV -5.54%E -2.84%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.53%EV -8.33%E -1.92%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 3.04I 32.89%NM 30.66%EV -7.61%E -2.50%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-24 00:40 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 48.05%EV -9.42%E -5.04%K -10.82%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.75%EV -8.33%E -1.92%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.20%EV -12.48%E -4.33%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-07-24 00:30 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 48.05%EV -9.42%E -5.04%K -10.82%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.75%EV -8.33%E -1.92%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.20%EV -12.48%E -4.33%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-07-24 00:25 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.02%EV -5.54%E -2.84%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.78%EV -8.97%E -2.09%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.21%EV -5.79%E -1.87%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-07-24 00:25 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.81%EV -8.93%E -4.75%K -10.15%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.59%EV -10.03%E -2.36%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -5.79%E -1.87%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-07-24 00:40 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 48.52%EV -10.87%E -5.91%K -12.94%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.01%EV -10.03%E -2.36%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 2.93I 34.13%NM 30.47%EV -10.96%E -3.74%K -5.68%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-07-24 00:20 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.77%EV -5.54%E -2.84%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.18%EV -11.09%E -2.64%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -5.79%E -1.87%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-24 00:30 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.77%EV -5.54%E -2.84%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.18%EV -11.09%E -2.64%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -5.79%E -1.87%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-24 00:30 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.42%EV -7.96%E -4.19%K -8.85%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.90%EV -11.09%E -2.64%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.68%EV -5.79%E -1.87%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-07-24 00:40 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.45%EV -8.93%E -4.75%K -10.15%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.69%EV -11.09%E -2.64%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.86%EV -7.31%E -2.40%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-07-24 00:20 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.21%EV -8.93%E -4.75%K -10.15%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.58%EV -11.09%E -2.64%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.21%EV -8.83%E -2.94%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-07-24 00:40 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.01%EV -10.39%E -5.61%K -12.22%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.15%EV -11.09%E -2.64%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.84%EV -12.48%E -4.33%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-07-24 00:25 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 48.51%EV -12.32%E -6.81%K -15.21%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.90%EV -11.09%E -2.64%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 30.59%EV -12.78%E -4.45%K -6.83%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-07-24 00:24 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 48.94%EV -13.29%E -7.43%K -16.83%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.86%EV -11.09%E -2.64%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.21%EV -11.87%E -4.09%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 14.2% | 2026-07-24 00:20 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 48.26%EV -11.84%E -6.50%K -14.44%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.96%EV -15.32%E -3.83%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 29.78%EV -10.35%E -3.51%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-07-24 00:20 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.04I 49.02%NM 48.48% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.61% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.91% | 1.1% | 2026-07-24 00:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.04I 49.02%NM 48.48% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.61% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.91% | 1.1% | 2026-07-24 00:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.02I 49.50%NM 48.94% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.17% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.89% | 1.2% | 2026-07-24 00:30 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.02I 49.50%NM 48.73% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.51% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.76% | 1.6% | 2026-07-24 00:40 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.02% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 21.55% | 3.33I 30.03%NM 29.44% | 2.0% | 2026-07-24 00:35 |
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