Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Central Córdoba v San Lorenzo

Kickoff: 2026-08-04 00:15 UTC

Final: Central Córdoba 1–0 San Lorenzo

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

38 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Central Córdoba (Local)

Prediction 30.23%3.31fair odd
EV +3.37%
Edge +0.986%
Kelly +1.39%
Growth +0.047%

assuming max odds 3.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.05%30.26%30.20%31.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.073.053.4234.48%32.57%32.79%29.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

San Lorenzo (Visit)

Prediction 37.33%2.68fair odd
EV -2.20%
Edge -0.840%
Kelly -1.36%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.17%37.32%37.36%39.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.492.502.6243.48%40.14%40.00%38.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 32.45%3.08fair odd
EV -2.66%
Edge -0.887%
Kelly -1.33%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.12%32.42%32.44%33.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.862.873.0037.04%35.02%34.90%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Central Córdoba (Local): 30.23%; San Lorenzo (Visit): 37.33%; Draw: 32.45%. For Central Córdoba (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.31. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.42, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.37%.

Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯3.42I 29.24%NM 28.05%EV +3.37%E +0.986%K +1.39%G +0.047%2.44I 40.98%NM 39.32%EV -8.92%E -3.66%K -6.19%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 32.63%EV -4.61%E -1.57%K -2.37%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-04 00:04
BetOnline.ag🎯3.31I 30.21%NM 29.18%EV +0.047%E +0.014%K +0.020%G +0.000%2.59I 38.61%NM 37.29%EV -3.32%E -1.28%K -2.09%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.53%EV -6.55%E -2.28%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-04 00:10
LowVig.ag🎯3.31I 30.21%NM 29.18%EV +0.047%E +0.014%K +0.020%G +0.000%2.59I 38.61%NM 37.29%EV -3.32%E -1.28%K -2.09%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.53%EV -6.55%E -2.28%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-04 00:09
BetAnything🎯3.26I 30.67%NM 29.72%EV -1.46%E -0.449%K -0.648%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.98%EV -2.20%E -0.840%K -1.36%G +0.000%2.91I 34.36%NM 33.30%EV -5.58%E -1.92%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-04 00:09
Pinnacle🎯3.26I 30.67%NM 29.70%EV -1.46%E -0.449%K -0.648%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.25%EV -2.95%E -1.13%K -1.84%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 33.05%EV -4.93%E -1.68%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-04 00:00
Fanatics🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.56%EV -3.28%E -1.02%K -1.49%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.83%EV -6.68%E -2.67%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.61%EV -5.91%E -2.04%K -3.11%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-04 00:09
DraftKings🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.15%EV -4.79%E -1.52%K -2.23%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.53%EV -2.95%E -1.13%K -1.84%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.32%EV -7.53%E -2.64%K -4.07%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-03 23:54
Codere (IT)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.88%EV -4.79%E -1.52%K -2.23%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -6.68%E -2.67%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.46%EV -5.91%E -2.04%K -3.11%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-04 00:00
Bovada🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.66%EV -4.79%E -1.52%K -2.23%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -8.55%E -3.49%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.21%EV -5.91%E -2.04%K -3.11%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-04 00:08
Unibet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.59%EV -6.30%E -2.03%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.48%EV -2.95%E -1.13%K -1.84%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.93%EV -6.55%E -2.28%K -3.49%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-04 00:00
Unibet (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.59%EV -6.30%E -2.03%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.48%EV -2.95%E -1.13%K -1.84%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.93%EV -6.55%E -2.28%K -3.49%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-03 23:59
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.32%EV -6.30%E -2.03%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.36%EV -8.55%E -3.49%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.33%EV -2.66%E -0.887%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-04 00:09
FanDuel🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.27%EV -6.30%E -2.03%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.80%EV -4.81%E -1.89%K -3.11%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.93%EV -7.53%E -2.64%K -4.07%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-04 00:05
Unibet (UK)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.22%EV -6.30%E -2.03%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -6.68%E -2.67%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.31%EV -5.91%E -2.04%K -3.11%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-04 00:00
theScore Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.22%EV -6.30%E -2.03%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -6.68%E -2.67%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.31%EV -5.91%E -2.04%K -3.11%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-03 23:59
SportsBet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -6.30%E -2.03%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.05%EV -6.68%E -2.67%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.08%EV -9.15%E -3.27%K -5.08%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-03 23:59
Betway🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -6.30%E -2.03%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.05%EV -6.68%E -2.67%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.08%EV -9.15%E -3.27%K -5.08%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-03 23:55
NordicBet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.19%EV -7.81%E -2.56%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 36.88%EV -3.69%E -1.43%K -2.34%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.93%EV -3.31%E -1.11%K -1.67%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-03 23:59
Betsson🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.19%EV -7.81%E -2.56%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 36.88%EV -3.69%E -1.43%K -2.34%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.93%EV -3.31%E -1.11%K -1.67%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-04 00:00
BetRivers🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.83%EV -7.81%E -2.56%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.17%EV -2.95%E -1.13%K -1.84%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.00%EV -7.53%E -2.64%K -4.07%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-03 23:59
Unibet (FR)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.28%EV -7.81%E -2.56%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.83%EV -14.15%E -6.15%K -10.88%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.89%EV -9.15%E -3.27%K -5.08%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-04 00:00
Marathon Bet🎯3.02I 33.11%NM 30.92%EV -8.72%E -2.89%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 37.96%EV -8.17%E -3.32%K -5.60%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -2.66%E -0.887%K -1.33%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-03 23:59
BetMGM🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -9.32%E -3.11%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.78%EV -8.55%E -3.49%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.37%EV -4.28%E -1.45%K -2.20%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-04 00:05
BoyleSports🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -9.32%E -3.11%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.02%EV -6.68%E -2.67%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.13%EV -6.55%E -2.28%K -3.49%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-03 12:49
PlayUp🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -9.32%E -3.11%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.89%EV -6.68%E -2.67%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.36%EV -7.53%E -2.64%K -4.07%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-03 23:55
betfred_uk🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -9.32%E -3.11%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.68%EV -6.68%E -2.67%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -9.15%E -3.27%K -5.08%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-03 11:30
Bet Right🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -9.32%E -3.11%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.36%EV -8.55%E -3.49%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.12%EV -7.53%E -2.64%K -4.07%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-04 00:04
Paddy Power🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.16%EV -9.32%E -3.11%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.93%EV -8.55%E -3.49%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.90%EV -10.77%E -3.92%K -6.16%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-04 00:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.16%EV -9.32%E -3.11%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.93%EV -8.55%E -3.49%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.90%EV -10.77%E -3.92%K -6.16%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-03 23:59
Betclic (FR)🎯2.98I 33.56%NM 29.94%EV -9.93%E -3.33%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.97%EV -12.28%E -5.23%K -9.10%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 32.09%EV -9.80%E -3.52%K -5.50%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-03 23:58
Winamax (DE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.80%EV -10.83%E -3.67%K -5.56%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.86%EV -10.41%E -4.34%K -7.44%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.33%EV -5.91%E -2.04%K -3.11%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-04 00:00
Virgin Bet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.74%EV -10.83%E -3.67%K -5.56%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.28%EV -6.68%E -2.67%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.98%EV -10.77%E -3.92%K -6.16%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-03 23:59
LiveScore Bet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.74%EV -10.83%E -3.67%K -5.56%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.28%EV -6.68%E -2.67%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.98%EV -10.77%E -3.92%K -6.16%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-03 23:59
Betr (AU)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.70%EV -10.83%E -3.67%K -5.56%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.96%EV -8.55%E -3.49%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.34%EV -9.15%E -3.27%K -5.08%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-03 22:39
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.52%EV -10.83%E -3.67%K -5.56%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.75%EV -8.55%E -3.49%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.74%EV -10.77%E -3.92%K -6.16%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-03 23:59
NetBet (FR)🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 30.08%EV -11.74%E -4.02%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.38%EV -12.28%E -5.23%K -9.10%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.54%EV -12.39%E -4.59%K -7.29%G +0.000%13.8%2026-08-03 23:59
Winamax (FR)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.75%EV -12.35%E -4.26%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.95%EV -12.28%E -5.23%K -9.10%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.29%EV -7.53%E -2.64%K -4.07%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-03 23:59
Sky Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.47%EV -12.35%E -4.26%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.81%EV -10.41%E -4.34%K -7.44%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.72%EV -12.39%E -4.59%K -7.29%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-03 23:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.30I 30.30%NM 30.02%2.68I 37.31%NM 36.96%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.02%0.9%2026-08-04 00:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.30I 30.30%NM 30.02%2.68I 37.31%NM 36.96%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.02%0.9%2026-08-04 00:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.30I 30.30%NM 30.02%2.68I 37.31%NM 36.96%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.02%0.9%2026-08-04 00:05
Smarkets3.25I 30.77%NM 30.26%2.66I 37.59%NM 36.97%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.78%1.7%2026-08-04 00:10
Kalshi3.23I 30.96%NM 30.36%2.63I 38.02%NM 37.28%3.03I 33.00%NM 32.36%2.0%2026-08-04 00:10

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