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CA Tigre BA v Independiente Rivadavia

Kickoff: 2026-04-05 20:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

CA Tigre BA (Local)

Prediction 41.18%2.43fair odd
EV -4.45%
Edge -1.92%
Kelly -3.37%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.32

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.24%41.19%41.23%42.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.182.202.3250.00%45.97%45.45%43.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Independiente Rivadavia (Visit)

Prediction 27.87%3.59fair odd
EV +1.74%
Edge +0.476%
Kelly +0.656%
Growth +0.011%

assuming max odds 3.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.71%27.71%28.11%28.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.213.203.6534.48%31.15%31.25%27.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.94%3.23fair odd
EV -4.08%
Edge -1.32%
Kelly -1.94%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.71%31.10%30.66%32.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.912.883.1037.04%34.35%34.72%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: CA Tigre BA (Local): 41.18%; Independiente Rivadavia (Visit): 27.87%; Draw: 30.94%. For Independiente Rivadavia (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.59. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.65, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.74%.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
NordicBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -7.33%E -3.26%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.71%EV +1.74%E +0.476%K +0.656%G +0.011%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.58%EV -10.89%E -3.78%K -5.79%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-27 02:15
Betsson🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -7.33%E -3.26%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.71%EV +1.74%E +0.476%K +0.656%G +0.011%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.58%EV -10.89%E -3.78%K -5.79%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-27 02:14
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.80%EV -9.39%E -4.27%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.27%EV -2.44%E -0.698%K -0.977%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.93%EV -10.89%E -3.78%K -5.79%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-27 12:50
Bovada🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.25%EV -7.33%E -3.26%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.30%EV -5.23%E -1.54%K -2.18%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.46%EV -8.72%E -2.96%K -4.47%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-27 15:17
Fanatics🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%EV -5.28%E -2.29%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -8.02%E -2.43%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -4.08%E -1.32%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-23 00:04
1xBet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.37%EV -4.45%E -1.92%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.82%EV -9.41%E -2.90%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 30.81%EV -5.94%E -1.95%K -2.91%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-26 23:35
SportsBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.35%EV -7.33%E -3.26%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -9.41%E -2.90%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -4.08%E -1.32%K -1.94%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-27 10:30
BoyleSports🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.05%EV -11.45%E -5.33%K -9.96%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -9.41%E -2.90%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.13%EV -7.17%E -2.39%K -3.59%G +0.000%10.6%2026-03-23 08:24
Marathon Bet🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 40.37%EV -4.86%E -2.11%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 28.96%EV -10.25%E -3.18%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 30.67%EV -5.94%E -1.95%K -2.91%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-27 15:19
FanDuel🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.23%EV -5.28%E -2.29%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -10.81%E -3.38%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -7.17%E -2.39%K -3.59%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-27 15:12
Betclic (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.08%EV -15.57%E -7.60%K -14.83%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 27.65%EV -13.03%E -4.18%K -6.15%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.27%EV -11.82%E -4.15%K -6.39%G +0.000%15.9%2026-03-22 17:59
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.51%EV -9.39%E -4.27%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.75%EV -13.59%E -4.38%K -6.47%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.73%EV -10.27%E -3.54%K -5.40%G +0.000%12.2%2026-03-27 15:12
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.01%EV -15.57%E -7.60%K -14.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.78%EV -13.59%E -4.38%K -6.47%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.22%EV -11.82%E -4.15%K -6.39%G +0.000%16.1%2026-03-16 02:15
Unibet (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.01%EV -15.57%E -7.60%K -14.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.78%EV -13.59%E -4.38%K -6.47%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.22%EV -11.82%E -4.15%K -6.39%G +0.000%16.1%2026-03-26 08:20
Winamax (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.03%EV -15.57%E -7.60%K -14.83%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.25%EV -14.99%E -4.91%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.71%EV -10.27%E -3.54%K -5.40%G +0.000%16.1%2026-03-16 02:15
Sky Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.25%EV -11.45%E -5.33%K -9.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.85%EV -16.38%E -5.46%K -8.19%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.91%EV -13.36%E -4.77%K -7.42%G +0.000%15.6%2026-03-27 15:12
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.24%EV -9.39%E -4.27%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.78%EV -16.38%E -5.46%K -8.19%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 31.98%EV -16.46%E -6.09%K -9.68%G +0.000%15.8%2026-03-27 02:20
Winamax (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 41.80%EV -17.63%E -8.82%K -17.63%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 28.34%EV -17.77%E -6.02%K -9.11%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 29.86%EV -13.36%E -4.77%K -7.42%G +0.000%19.6%2026-03-16 02:15
PMU (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 41.60%EV -17.63%E -8.82%K -17.63%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 28.69%EV -19.17%E -6.61%K -10.09%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 29.71%EV -13.36%E -4.77%K -7.42%G +0.000%20.2%2026-03-27 10:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 33.23%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.23%1.03I 97.09%NM 33.55%189.4%2026-03-27 06:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 33.23%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.23%1.03I 97.09%NM 33.55%189.4%2026-03-26 17:14
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 33.23%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.23%1.03I 97.09%NM 33.55%189.4%2026-03-26 17:14