Language:English
Boca Juniors v Union Santa Fe
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Boca Juniors (Local)
Prediction 66.11%1.51fair odd
EV -4.14%
Edge -2.86%
Kelly -9.20%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.45
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.02%66.12%66.00%67.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.321.391.401.4575.76%71.70%71.43%68.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Union Santa Fe (Visit)
Prediction 12.80%7.81fair odd
EV +9.92%
Edge +1.16%
Kelly +1.31%
Growth +0.130%
assuming max odds 8.59
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.20%12.78%12.92%14.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.257.407.508.5916.00%13.52%13.33%11.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 21.09%4.74fair odd
EV -0.861%
Edge -0.183%
Kelly -0.233%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.70
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.29%21.10%21.08%22.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.054.384.404.7024.69%22.84%22.73%21.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Boca Juniors (Local): 66.11%; Union Santa Fe (Visit): 12.80%; Draw: 21.09%. For Union Santa Fe (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.81. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.59, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.92%.
Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.83%EV -4.80%E -3.33%K -10.91%G +0.000% | 8.59I 11.64%NM 11.20%EV +9.92%E +1.16%K +1.31%G +0.130% | 4.38I 22.83%NM 21.97%EV -7.61%E -1.74%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-10-03 00:24 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.93%EV -5.46%E -3.82%K -12.70%G +0.000% | 8.30I 12.05%NM 11.36%EV +6.21%E +0.749%K +0.851%G +0.053% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.72%EV -12.46%E -3.00%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-03 00:25 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.68%EV -5.46%E -3.82%K -12.70%G +0.000% | 8.25I 12.12%NM 11.73%EV +5.57%E +0.676%K +0.769%G +0.043% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.59%EV -0.861%E -0.183%K -0.233%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-10-03 00:14 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.68%EV -5.46%E -3.82%K -12.70%G +0.000% | 8.25I 12.12%NM 11.73%EV +5.57%E +0.676%K +0.769%G +0.043% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.59%EV -0.861%E -0.183%K -0.233%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-10-03 00:20 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.68%EV -5.46%E -3.82%K -12.70%G +0.000% | 8.25I 12.12%NM 11.73%EV +5.57%E +0.676%K +0.769%G +0.043% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.59%EV -0.861%E -0.183%K -0.233%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-10-03 00:20 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.91%EV -8.77%E -6.35%K -23.07%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.71%EV +2.37%E +0.297%K +0.339%G +0.008% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.37%EV -2.97%E -0.646%K -0.825%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-03 00:25 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.91%EV -8.77%E -6.35%K -23.07%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.71%EV +2.37%E +0.297%K +0.339%G +0.008% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.37%EV -2.97%E -0.646%K -0.825%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-03 00:25 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 67.13%EV -8.11%E -5.83%K -20.79%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV +2.37%E +0.297%K +0.339%G +0.008% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.21%EV -7.19%E -1.63%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-10-03 00:20 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 67.76%EV -9.43%E -6.88%K -25.49%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV +2.37%E +0.297%K +0.339%G +0.008% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -5.08%E -1.13%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-10-03 00:15 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.44%EV -4.14%E -2.86%K -9.20%G +0.000% | 7.87I 12.71%NM 12.24%EV +0.710%E +0.090%K +0.103%G +0.001% | 4.52I 22.12%NM 21.31%EV -4.66%E -1.03%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-10-03 00:15 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.14%EV -4.80%E -3.33%K -10.91%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.70%EV -4.02%E -0.537%K -0.619%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.16%EV -5.08%E -1.13%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-03 00:10 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.29%EV -5.46%E -3.82%K -12.70%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.64%EV -4.02%E -0.537%K -0.619%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.07%EV -5.08%E -1.13%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-02 23:54 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.45%EV -6.12%E -4.31%K -14.58%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.58%EV -4.02%E -0.537%K -0.619%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.97%EV -5.08%E -1.13%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-03 00:25 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.77%EV -7.45%E -5.32%K -18.62%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.46%EV -4.02%E -0.537%K -0.619%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -5.08%E -1.13%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-03 00:25 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.77%EV -7.45%E -5.32%K -18.62%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.46%EV -4.02%E -0.537%K -0.619%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -5.08%E -1.13%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-02 23:45 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.79%EV -7.45%E -5.32%K -18.62%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.28%EV -4.02%E -0.537%K -0.619%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.93%EV -11.41%E -2.72%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-02 23:50 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.41%EV -10.09%E -7.42%K -28.03%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.22%EV -4.02%E -0.537%K -0.619%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.37%EV -5.08%E -1.13%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-10-03 00:21 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.28%EV -8.77%E -6.35%K -23.07%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.20%EV -4.02%E -0.537%K -0.619%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.52%EV -10.35%E -2.44%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-10-02 23:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.44%EV -10.09%E -7.42%K -28.03%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.05%EV -4.02%E -0.537%K -0.619%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.51%EV -11.41%E -2.72%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-10-03 00:20 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.44%EV -10.09%E -7.42%K -28.03%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.05%EV -4.02%E -0.537%K -0.619%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.51%EV -11.41%E -2.72%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-10-03 00:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.11%EV -4.14%E -2.86%K -9.20%G +0.000% | 7.30I 13.70%NM 12.93%EV -6.58%E -0.902%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.96%EV -9.30%E -2.16%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-03 00:25 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.69%EV -5.46%E -3.82%K -12.70%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.96%EV -7.22%E -0.996%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.35%EV -7.19%E -1.63%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-10-03 00:10 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.85%EV -6.12%E -4.31%K -14.58%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.90%EV -7.22%E -0.996%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.25%EV -7.19%E -1.63%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-03 00:20 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 65.49%EV -8.77%E -6.35%K -23.07%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.47%EV -7.22%E -0.996%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.04%EV -13.52%E -3.30%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-10-02 23:50 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.79%EV -4.80%E -3.33%K -10.91%G +0.000% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.16%EV -7.86%E -1.09%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -5.08%E -1.13%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-03 00:20 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 65.95%EV -6.79%E -4.81%K -16.55%G +0.000% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 12.92%EV -7.86%E -1.09%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.13%EV -7.19%E -1.63%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-02 21:03 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.22%EV -7.45%E -5.32%K -18.62%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.04%EV -10.42%E -1.49%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -11.41%E -2.72%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-10-03 00:19 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 65.87%EV -10.09%E -7.42%K -28.03%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.80%EV -10.42%E -1.49%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.33%EV -11.41%E -2.72%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-10-03 00:15 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 66.69%EV -11.41%E -8.52%K -33.57%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.77%EV -10.42%E -1.49%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.54%EV -8.24%E -1.90%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-10-03 00:25 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 66.69%EV -11.41%E -8.52%K -33.57%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.77%EV -10.42%E -1.49%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.54%EV -8.24%E -1.90%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-10-03 00:25 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 66.87%EV -12.74%E -9.65%K -39.80%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.61%EV -10.42%E -1.49%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.53%EV -9.30%E -2.16%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-10-03 00:25 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.07%EV -5.46%E -3.82%K -12.70%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.78%EV -13.62%E -2.02%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -7.19%E -1.63%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-03 00:24 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.07%EV -6.12%E -4.31%K -14.58%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.69%EV -13.62%E -2.02%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.24%EV -8.24%E -1.90%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-10-03 00:25 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 65.56%EV -11.41%E -8.52%K -33.57%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.01%EV -13.62%E -2.02%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.43%EV -13.52%E -3.30%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-10-03 00:25 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 65.02%EV -10.75%E -7.96%K -30.72%G +0.000% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 13.30%EV -15.54%E -2.35%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 21.67%EV -14.57%E -3.60%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-10-03 00:25 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 65.53%EV -12.07%E -9.08%K -36.59%G +0.000% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 13.21%EV -15.54%E -2.35%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.26%EV -13.52%E -3.30%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 14.7% | 2026-10-03 00:25 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 65.67%EV -8.11%E -5.83%K -20.79%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.04%EV -16.82%E -2.59%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.29%EV -5.08%E -1.13%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-10-03 00:24 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 65.03%EV -9.43%E -6.88%K -25.49%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.25%EV -20.02%E -3.20%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.72%EV -9.30%E -2.16%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-10-03 00:24 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.46I 68.49%NM 68.19% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 11.06% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.74% | 0.4% | 2026-10-03 00:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.46I 68.49%NM 68.02% | 8.80I 11.36%NM 11.29% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.69% | 0.7% | 2026-10-03 00:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.45I 68.97%NM 68.34% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 11.01% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.65% | 0.9% | 2026-10-03 00:25 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.45I 68.97%NM 68.30% | 9.09I 11.00%NM 10.89% | 4.76I 21.01%NM 20.81% | 1.0% | 2026-10-02 23:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 68.64% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.91% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.45% | 1.9% | 2026-10-03 00:25 |