The School of Odds
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Boca Juniors v Union Santa Fe

Kickoff: 2026-10-04 22:15 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

31 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Boca Juniors (Local)

Prediction 59.10%1.69fair odd
EV -4.25%
Edge -2.62%
Kelly -6.86%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.31%59.07%59.07%60.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.481.561.561.6267.57%64.25%64.10%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Union Santa Fe (Visit)

Prediction 16.17%6.19fair odd
EV +1.85%
Edge +0.294%
Kelly +0.349%
Growth +0.006%

assuming max odds 6.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.95%16.11%16.19%17.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.905.635.606.3020.41%17.77%17.86%15.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.73%4.04fair odd
EV -2.57%
Edge -0.652%
Kelly -0.874%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.94

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.82%24.82%24.74%26.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.683.703.9429.41%27.14%27.03%25.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Boca Juniors (Local): 59.10%; Union Santa Fe (Visit): 16.17%; Draw: 24.73%. For Union Santa Fe (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.19. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.85%.

Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
NordicBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.88%EV -5.43%E -3.40%K -9.05%G +0.000%6.30I 15.87%NM 14.95%EV +1.85%E +0.294%K +0.349%G +0.006%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.17%EV -10.98%E -3.05%K -4.22%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-22 07:14
Betsson🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.88%EV -5.43%E -3.40%K -9.05%G +0.000%6.30I 15.87%NM 14.95%EV +1.85%E +0.294%K +0.349%G +0.006%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.17%EV -10.98%E -3.05%K -4.22%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-22 07:10
1xBet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.66%EV -6.02%E -3.79%K -10.21%G +0.000%6.02I 16.61%NM 15.76%EV -2.68%E -0.444%K -0.533%G +0.000%3.86I 25.91%NM 24.58%EV -4.55%E -1.18%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-23 04:33
SportsBet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.55%EV -8.98%E -5.83%K -16.63%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.54%EV -3.00%E -0.500%K -0.600%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -3.56%E -0.913%K -1.23%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-23 07:19
FanDuel🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.55%EV -8.98%E -5.83%K -16.63%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.54%EV -3.00%E -0.500%K -0.600%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -3.56%E -0.913%K -1.23%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-23 07:19
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.71%EV -9.57%E -6.25%K -18.06%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.48%EV -3.00%E -0.500%K -0.600%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.82%EV -3.56%E -0.913%K -1.23%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-24 22:57
betfred_uk🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.13%EV -9.57%E -6.25%K -18.06%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.33%EV -3.00%E -0.500%K -0.600%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -7.27%E -1.94%K -2.64%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-24 22:30
Pinnacle🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.17%EV -7.21%E -4.59%K -12.64%G +0.000%5.96I 16.78%NM 15.85%EV -3.65%E -0.612%K -0.735%G +0.000%3.94I 25.38%NM 23.98%EV -2.57%E -0.652%K -0.874%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-22 07:19
Marathon Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.63%EV -7.80%E -5.00%K -13.92%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.77%EV -4.62%E -0.782%K -0.942%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 24.61%EV -6.53%E -1.73%K -2.35%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-23 05:46
Codere (IT)🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 58.07%EV -6.02%E -3.79%K -10.21%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.92%EV -6.23%E -1.07%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.01%EV -12.21%E -3.44%K -4.79%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-13 15:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.85%EV -5.43%E -3.40%K -9.05%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.37%EV -7.04%E -1.22%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -6.03%E -1.59%K -2.15%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-23 04:00
Fanatics🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.00%EV -6.02%E -3.79%K -10.21%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.31%EV -7.04%E -1.22%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.69%EV -6.03%E -1.59%K -2.15%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-22 07:10
BetMGM🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.30%EV -7.21%E -4.59%K -12.64%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -7.04%E -1.22%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.50%EV -6.03%E -1.59%K -2.15%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-28 04:30
Unibet (UK)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 58.76%EV -6.61%E -4.19%K -11.40%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.15%EV -7.04%E -1.22%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.09%EV -8.50%E -2.30%K -3.15%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-27 22:44
Unibet (SE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.70%EV -4.25%E -2.62%K -6.86%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.69%EV -9.47%E -1.69%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.61%EV -9.74%E -2.67%K -3.68%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-22 08:14
Unibet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.70%EV -4.25%E -2.62%K -6.86%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.69%EV -9.47%E -1.69%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.61%EV -9.74%E -2.67%K -3.68%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-22 08:14
Bovada🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.24%EV -7.21%E -4.59%K -12.64%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.61%EV -9.47%E -1.69%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.16%EV -4.80%E -1.25%K -1.68%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-27 13:00
NetBet (FR)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 59.48%EV -12.52%E -8.46%K -26.09%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.72%EV -9.47%E -1.69%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.80%EV -12.21%E -3.44%K -4.79%G +0.000%13.6%2026-09-28 04:10
BetRivers🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.63%EV -5.43%E -3.40%K -9.05%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.76%EV -11.08%E -2.01%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -10.98%E -3.05%K -4.22%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-22 08:15
DraftKings🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.03%EV -7.80%E -5.00%K -13.92%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.74%EV -11.08%E -2.01%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.23%EV -6.03%E -1.59%K -2.15%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-22 07:04
theScore Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.64%EV -7.80%E -5.00%K -13.92%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.63%EV -11.08%E -2.01%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.72%EV -8.50%E -2.30%K -3.15%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-24 16:05
BoyleSports🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.99%EV -8.39%E -5.41%K -15.25%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -11.08%E -2.01%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.38%EV -7.27%E -1.94%K -2.64%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-26 06:40
Betclic (FR)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.83%EV -9.57%E -6.25%K -18.06%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.37%EV -11.08%E -2.01%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 24.80%EV -10.24%E -2.82%K -3.89%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-26 22:20
Paddy Power🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.78%EV -11.34%E -7.56%K -22.69%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.30%EV -11.08%E -2.01%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.91%EV -7.27%E -1.94%K -2.64%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-23 07:19
LiveScore Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.31%EV -7.21%E -4.59%K -12.64%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.98%EV -14.32%E -2.70%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.71%EV -13.45%E -3.84%K -5.38%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-22 08:19
Virgin Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.31%EV -7.21%E -4.59%K -12.64%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.98%EV -14.32%E -2.70%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.71%EV -13.45%E -3.84%K -5.38%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-22 08:19
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 57.33%EV -9.57%E -6.25%K -18.06%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 16.87%EV -15.93%E -3.06%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.80%EV -15.92%E -4.68%K -6.63%G +0.000%14.0%2026-09-22 08:14
Unibet (FR)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 57.95%EV -12.52%E -8.46%K -26.09%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 16.82%EV -17.55%E -3.44%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.23%EV -15.92%E -4.68%K -6.63%G +0.000%16.6%2026-09-22 07:09
Winamax (DE)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 57.93%EV -10.16%E -6.68%K -19.54%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.61%EV -19.17%E -3.83%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.46%EV -10.98%E -3.05%K -4.22%G +0.000%13.6%2026-09-22 07:08
Sky Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 57.85%EV -11.34%E -7.56%K -22.69%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.36%EV -19.17%E -3.83%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.79%EV -13.45%E -3.84%K -5.38%G +0.000%15.2%2026-09-23 09:44
Winamax (FR)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 57.65%EV -11.34%E -7.56%K -22.69%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 17.65%EV -20.78%E -4.24%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.71%EV -13.45%E -3.84%K -5.38%G +0.000%15.6%2026-09-22 07:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.50I 66.67%NM 57.22%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.16%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.62%16.5%2026-09-25 01:35