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Boca Juniors v Talleres
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Boca Juniors (Local)
Prediction 65.36%1.53fair odd
EV -3.92%
Edge -2.67%
Kelly -8.34%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.47
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.17%65.39%65.57%67.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.321.411.401.4775.76%70.91%71.17%68.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Talleres (Visit)
Prediction 11.92%8.39fair odd
EV +10.58%
Edge +1.14%
Kelly +1.28%
Growth +0.135%
assuming max odds 9.28
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.37%11.89%11.85%13.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.507.897.809.2815.38%12.67%12.82%10.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 22.72%4.40fair odd
EV -2.29%
Edge -0.532%
Kelly -0.693%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.12%22.72%22.58%24.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.704.064.104.3027.03%24.64%24.39%23.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Boca Juniors (Local): 65.36%; Talleres (Visit): 11.92%; Draw: 22.72%. For Talleres (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.39. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 9.28, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.58%.
Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.92%EV -4.57%E -3.13%K -9.94%G +0.000% | 9.28I 10.78%NM 10.37%EV +10.58%E +1.14%K +1.28%G +0.135% | 4.06I 24.63%NM 23.71%EV -7.74%E -1.91%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-10-17 00:25 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 65.90%EV -3.92%E -2.67%K -8.34%G +0.000% | 9.25I 10.81%NM 10.47%EV +10.22%E +1.11%K +1.24%G +0.127% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.63%EV -6.83%E -1.67%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-10-17 00:20 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 65.90%EV -3.92%E -2.67%K -8.34%G +0.000% | 9.25I 10.81%NM 10.47%EV +10.22%E +1.11%K +1.24%G +0.127% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.63%EV -6.83%E -1.67%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-10-17 00:20 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 65.90%EV -3.92%E -2.67%K -8.34%G +0.000% | 9.25I 10.81%NM 10.47%EV +10.22%E +1.11%K +1.24%G +0.127% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.63%EV -6.83%E -1.67%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-10-17 00:20 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.52%EV -8.50%E -6.07%K -21.24%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.50%EV +7.24%E +0.805%K +0.905%G +0.066% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.98%EV -2.29%E -0.532%K -0.693%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-17 00:05 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.59%EV -5.88%E -4.08%K -13.37%G +0.000% | 8.63I 11.59%NM 11.11%EV +2.84%E +0.329%K +0.372%G +0.011% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.30%EV -2.29%E -0.532%K -0.693%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-10-17 00:24 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.92%EV -6.54%E -4.57%K -15.20%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV +1.29%E +0.151%K +0.171%G +0.002% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.99%EV -6.83%E -1.67%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-17 00:25 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.38%EV -5.88%E -4.08%K -13.37%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.08%EV +1.29%E +0.151%K +0.171%G +0.002% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -9.10%E -2.28%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-17 00:10 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.54%EV -6.54%E -4.57%K -15.20%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.03%EV +1.29%E +0.151%K +0.171%G +0.002% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.43%EV -9.10%E -2.28%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-17 00:10 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.70%EV -6.54%E -4.57%K -15.20%G +0.000% | 8.25I 12.12%NM 11.39%EV -1.69%E -0.205%K -0.234%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.91%EV -6.83%E -1.67%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-17 00:24 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.55%EV -7.84%E -5.56%K -19.13%G +0.000% | 8.25I 12.12%NM 11.37%EV -1.69%E -0.205%K -0.234%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.08%EV -3.42%E -0.805%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-10-17 00:25 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.67%EV -5.88%E -4.08%K -13.37%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.82%EV -4.67%E -0.584%K -0.667%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -4.56%E -1.09%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-17 00:10 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.82%EV -6.54%E -4.57%K -15.20%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.77%EV -4.67%E -0.584%K -0.667%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.41%EV -4.56%E -1.09%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-17 00:09 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.94%EV -5.88%E -4.08%K -13.37%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.69%EV -4.67%E -0.584%K -0.667%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.38%EV -9.10%E -2.28%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-17 00:24 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 64.87%EV -7.19%E -5.06%K -17.12%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.51%EV -4.67%E -0.584%K -0.667%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.62%EV -11.38%E -2.92%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-17 00:10 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.57%EV -8.50%E -6.07%K -21.24%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.48%EV -4.67%E -0.584%K -0.667%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.95%EV -9.10%E -2.28%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-10-17 00:15 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 64.59%EV -8.50%E -6.07%K -21.24%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.30%EV -4.67%E -0.584%K -0.667%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.11%EV -14.78%E -3.94%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-10-17 00:10 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 64.59%EV -8.50%E -6.07%K -21.24%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.30%EV -4.67%E -0.584%K -0.667%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.11%EV -14.78%E -3.94%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-10-17 00:09 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.93%EV -8.50%E -6.07%K -21.24%G +0.000% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 11.83%EV -7.06%E -0.905%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.24%EV -5.70%E -1.37%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-10-17 00:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.93%EV -8.50%E -6.07%K -21.24%G +0.000% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 11.83%EV -7.06%E -0.905%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.24%EV -5.70%E -1.37%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-10-17 00:24 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.05%EV -8.50%E -6.07%K -21.24%G +0.000% | 7.75I 12.90%NM 11.93%EV -7.65%E -0.987%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.02%EV -4.56%E -1.09%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-10-17 00:24 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.51%EV -7.19%E -5.06%K -17.12%G +0.000% | 7.70I 12.99%NM 12.08%EV -8.25%E -1.07%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.41%EV -5.70%E -1.37%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-16 23:25 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.00%EV -5.23%E -3.61%K -11.62%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.57%EV -10.63%E -1.42%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.44%EV -4.56%E -1.09%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-17 00:15 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.44%EV -8.50%E -6.07%K -21.24%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.22%EV -10.63%E -1.42%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.35%EV -6.83%E -1.67%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-10-17 00:25 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.08%EV -8.50%E -6.07%K -21.24%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.15%EV -10.63%E -1.42%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.78%EV -9.10%E -2.28%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-10-17 00:24 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.77%EV -11.11%E -8.17%K -30.86%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.11%EV -10.63%E -1.42%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.12%EV -2.29%E -0.532%K -0.693%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-10-17 00:24 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 65.40%EV -9.80%E -7.10%K -25.80%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.03%EV -10.63%E -1.42%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.56%EV -9.10%E -2.28%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-10-17 00:25 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 65.73%EV -11.11%E -8.17%K -30.86%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.92%EV -10.63%E -1.42%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.35%EV -9.10%E -2.28%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-10-17 00:15 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 65.73%EV -11.11%E -8.17%K -30.86%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.92%EV -10.63%E -1.42%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.35%EV -9.10%E -2.28%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-10-16 23:40 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 65.73%EV -11.11%E -8.17%K -30.86%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.92%EV -10.63%E -1.42%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.35%EV -9.10%E -2.28%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-10-17 00:20 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 64.56%EV -11.11%E -8.17%K -30.86%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.71%EV -10.63%E -1.42%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.73%EV -15.92%E -4.30%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-10-17 00:10 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 64.73%EV -4.57%E -3.13%K -9.94%G +0.000% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 12.77%EV -11.82%E -1.60%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.50%EV -4.56%E -1.09%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-17 00:20 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 64.17%EV -9.80%E -7.10%K -25.80%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.21%EV -13.61%E -1.88%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.61%EV -14.78%E -3.94%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-10-17 00:15 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.23%EV -5.88%E -4.08%K -13.37%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.21%EV -16.59%E -2.37%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.56%EV -6.83%E -1.67%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-10-17 00:20 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 64.42%EV -11.11%E -8.17%K -30.86%G +0.000% | 6.90I 14.49%NM 12.70%EV -17.78%E -2.58%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 3.83I 26.11%NM 22.88%EV -12.97%E -3.39%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-10-17 00:24 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 65.18%EV -13.72%E -10.40%K -42.89%G +0.000% | 6.90I 14.49%NM 12.47%EV -17.78%E -2.58%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 22.35%EV -12.51%E -3.25%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 16.2% | 2026-10-17 00:20 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 64.74%EV -7.84%E -5.56%K -19.13%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.52%EV -19.57%E -2.90%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.73%EV -4.56%E -1.09%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-10-17 00:25 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 64.40%EV -9.15%E -6.58%K -23.46%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.77%EV -22.55%E -3.47%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.83%EV -6.83%E -1.67%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-10-17 00:20 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.48I 67.57%NM 67.12% | 9.20I 10.87%NM 10.80% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.08% | 0.7% | 2026-10-17 00:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.48I 67.57%NM 67.12% | 9.20I 10.87%NM 10.80% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.08% | 0.7% | 2026-10-17 00:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.48I 67.57%NM 67.12% | 9.20I 10.87%NM 10.80% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.08% | 0.7% | 2026-10-17 00:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.45I 68.97%NM 67.88% | 9.60I 10.42%NM 10.25% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.87% | 1.6% | 2026-10-17 00:15 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.45I 68.97%NM 67.65% | 9.09I 11.00%NM 10.79% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 21.56% | 1.9% | 2026-10-17 00:15 |