The School of Odds
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Boca Juniors v Talleres

Kickoff: 2026-10-18 20:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Boca Juniors (Local)

Prediction 55.36%1.81fair odd
EV -4.22%
Edge -2.44%
Kelly -5.78%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.73

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.18%55.44%55.16%56.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.651.671.7366.67%60.79%59.88%57.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Talleres (Visit)

Prediction 17.76%5.63fair odd
EV -0.542%
Edge -0.097%
Kelly -0.118%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.50%17.70%17.95%19.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.335.045.005.6023.09%19.84%20.00%17.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.88%3.72fair odd
EV -5.66%
Edge -1.61%
Kelly -2.26%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.51

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.20%26.86%26.89%27.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.153.393.423.5131.75%29.50%29.24%28.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Boca Juniors (Local): 55.36%; Talleres (Visit): 17.76%; Draw: 26.88%. For Talleres (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.63. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 5.60, with an expected value of -0.542%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.97%EV -4.22%E -2.44%K -5.78%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.94%EV -5.87%E -1.11%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.51I 28.49%NM 27.09%EV -5.66%E -1.61%K -2.26%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-04 02:40
Bovada🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.28%EV -4.78%E -2.78%K -6.63%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.05%EV -12.97%E -2.65%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -5.93%E -1.69%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-04 15:33
Fanatics🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -5.33%E -3.12%K -7.51%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.95%EV -6.76%E -1.29%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -5.93%E -1.69%K -2.37%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-05 04:24
SportsBet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.63%EV -5.33%E -3.12%K -7.51%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.68%EV -11.20%E -2.24%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -5.93%E -1.69%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-04 01:24
FanDuel🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.63%EV -5.33%E -3.12%K -7.51%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.68%EV -11.20%E -2.24%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -5.93%E -1.69%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-04 01:23
Marathon Bet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.06%EV -6.44%E -3.81%K -9.33%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.89%EV -7.65%E -1.47%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.05%EV -7.54%E -2.19%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-04 02:42
BoyleSports🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.79%EV -7.54%E -4.52%K -11.26%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -11.20%E -2.24%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -8.62%E -2.54%K -3.59%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-04 06:35
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.27%EV -7.54%E -4.52%K -11.26%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.08%EV -15.64%E -3.29%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -8.62%E -2.54%K -3.59%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-04 01:24
Codere (IT)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.70%EV -9.76%E -5.99%K -15.49%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.50%EV -0.542%E -0.097%K -0.118%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.79%EV -7.28%E -2.11%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-04 01:09
Sky Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 53.18%EV -10.31%E -6.37%K -16.63%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 19.90%EV -23.10%E -5.33%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.92%EV -13.99%E -4.37%K -6.36%G +0.000%16.1%2026-10-04 01:52
Betclic (FR)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.34%EV -13.08%E -8.33%K -22.95%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 16.85%EV -6.76%E -1.29%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.81%EV -11.31%E -3.43%K -4.92%G +0.000%13.0%2026-10-04 01:10
Winamax (DE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 56.25%EV -13.63%E -8.74%K -24.35%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.55%EV -11.20%E -2.24%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.20%EV -9.96%E -2.97%K -4.24%G +0.000%14.0%2026-10-04 01:10
Winamax (FR)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 55.92%EV -14.74%E -9.57%K -27.30%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 17.58%EV -12.97%E -2.65%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.50%EV -12.65%E -3.89%K -5.62%G +0.000%16.1%2026-10-04 01:10
Unibet (FR)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 56.49%EV -16.96%E -11.30%K -33.91%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 16.61%EV -9.42%E -1.85%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 26.90%EV -15.34%E -4.87%K -7.13%G +0.000%18.0%2026-10-04 22:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.12I 89.29%NM 33.23%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.83%1.13I 88.50%NM 32.94%168.7%2026-10-05 13:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.12I 89.29%NM 33.23%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.83%1.13I 88.50%NM 32.94%168.7%2026-10-05 13:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.12I 89.29%NM 32.93%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.53%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.53%171.1%2026-10-04 03:35