The School of Odds
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Boca Juniors v River Plate

Kickoff: 2026-11-01 18:00 UTC

Final: Boca Juniors 1–0 River Plate

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

40 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Boca Juniors (Local)

Prediction 42.98%2.33fair odd
EV -2.86%
Edge -1.27%
Kelly -2.27%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.88%43.00%42.93%45.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.912.142.152.2652.36%46.76%46.51%44.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

River Plate (Visit)

Prediction 26.51%3.77fair odd
EV +2.87%
Edge +0.739%
Kelly +0.995%
Growth +0.029%

assuming max odds 3.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.75%26.53%26.60%27.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.523.503.8830.77%28.38%28.57%25.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.51%3.28fair odd
EV -1.16%
Edge -0.358%
Kelly -0.518%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.24

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.32%30.48%30.47%31.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.033.053.2435.71%32.97%32.79%30.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Boca Juniors (Local): 42.98%; River Plate (Visit): 26.51%; Draw: 30.51%. For River Plate (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.77. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.88, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.87%.

Sportsbook Odds (40 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.67%EV -7.59%E -3.53%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.75%EV +2.87%E +0.739%K +0.995%G +0.029%3.14I 31.85%NM 30.58%EV -4.21%E -1.34%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.1%2026-11-01 17:55
BetOnline.ag🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.91%EV -5.44%E -2.47%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.42%EV +0.745%E +0.196%K +0.266%G +0.002%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.67%EV -3.91%E -1.24%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.5%2026-11-01 17:55
LowVig.ag🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.91%EV -5.44%E -2.47%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.42%EV +0.745%E +0.196%K +0.266%G +0.002%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.67%EV -3.91%E -1.24%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.5%2026-11-01 17:55
BetAnything🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.91%EV -5.44%E -2.47%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.42%EV +0.745%E +0.196%K +0.266%G +0.002%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.67%EV -3.91%E -1.24%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.5%2026-11-01 17:55
Marathon Bet🎯2.19I 45.66%NM 44.25%EV -5.87%E -2.68%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.84%EV -0.580%E -0.155%K -0.211%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.91%EV -1.16%E -0.358%K -0.518%G +0.000%3.2%2026-11-01 14:50
Unibet🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 45.05%EV -11.03%E -5.33%K -10.31%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.87%EV -0.580%E -0.155%K -0.211%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -5.43%E -1.75%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.2%2026-11-01 17:55
Unibet (SE)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 45.05%EV -11.03%E -5.33%K -10.31%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.87%EV -0.580%E -0.155%K -0.211%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -5.43%E -1.75%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.2%2026-11-01 17:55
Pinnacle🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 42.88%EV -2.86%E -1.27%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 26.05%EV -1.38%E -0.370%K -0.506%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 31.06%EV -4.82%E -1.54%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.2%2026-11-01 17:55
FanDuel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -5.44%E -2.47%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -4.56%E -1.27%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -8.48%E -2.83%K -4.24%G +0.000%6.6%2026-11-01 17:55
SportsBet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.88%EV -6.30%E -2.89%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.96%EV -4.56%E -1.27%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.16%EV -8.48%E -2.83%K -4.24%G +0.000%7.0%2026-11-01 17:55
Betsson🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.71%EV -4.58%E -2.06%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.71%EV -5.88%E -1.66%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.58%EV -5.43%E -1.75%K -2.59%G +0.000%5.5%2026-11-01 17:20
NordicBet🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.71%EV -4.58%E -2.06%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.71%EV -5.88%E -1.66%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.58%EV -5.43%E -1.75%K -2.59%G +0.000%5.5%2026-11-01 17:20
Codere (IT)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.93%EV -5.44%E -2.47%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.60%EV -5.88%E -1.66%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.47%EV -5.43%E -1.75%K -2.59%G +0.000%5.9%2026-11-01 14:50
DraftKings🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.93%EV -5.44%E -2.47%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.60%EV -5.88%E -1.66%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.47%EV -5.43%E -1.75%K -2.59%G +0.000%5.9%2026-11-01 17:45
Virgin Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.62%EV -14.04%E -7.02%K -14.04%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.14%EV -5.88%E -1.66%K -2.31%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.25%EV -10.01%E -3.39%K -5.13%G +0.000%12.1%2026-11-01 17:55
LiveScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.62%EV -14.04%E -7.02%K -14.04%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.14%EV -5.88%E -1.66%K -2.31%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.25%EV -10.01%E -3.39%K -5.13%G +0.000%12.1%2026-11-01 17:55
Unibet (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -5.44%E -2.47%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -7.21%E -2.06%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -5.43%E -1.75%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.3%2026-11-01 14:49
Bovada🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.56%EV -5.44%E -2.47%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.75%EV -7.21%E -2.06%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.70%EV -6.96%E -2.28%K -3.39%G +0.000%6.8%2026-11-01 17:44
Betway🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.33%EV -7.59%E -3.53%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -7.21%E -2.06%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -5.43%E -1.75%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.3%2026-11-01 17:50
PlayUp🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.90%EV -7.59%E -3.53%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -7.21%E -2.06%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -8.48%E -2.83%K -4.24%G +0.000%8.4%2026-11-01 17:55
BetRivers🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.02%EV -8.02%E -3.75%K -7.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.30%EV -7.21%E -2.06%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.68%EV -8.48%E -2.83%K -4.24%G +0.000%8.6%2026-11-01 17:40
BoyleSports🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -9.74%E -4.64%K -8.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -7.21%E -2.06%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -8.48%E -2.83%K -4.24%G +0.000%9.5%2026-11-01 14:55
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.93%EV -9.74%E -4.64%K -8.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.76%EV -7.21%E -2.06%K -2.88%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.31%EV -12.14%E -4.22%K -6.46%G +0.000%10.9%2026-11-01 17:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.93%EV -9.74%E -4.64%K -8.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.76%EV -7.21%E -2.06%K -2.88%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.31%EV -12.14%E -4.22%K -6.46%G +0.000%10.9%2026-11-01 17:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 44.89%EV -16.62%E -8.56%K -17.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.88%EV -7.21%E -2.06%K -2.88%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.24%EV -12.14%E -4.22%K -6.46%G +0.000%14.8%2026-11-01 17:55
theScore Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.39%EV -5.44%E -2.47%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.03%EV -8.53%E -2.47%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.58%EV -6.96%E -2.28%K -3.39%G +0.000%7.2%2026-11-01 14:49
Bet Right🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.53%EV -9.74%E -4.64%K -8.85%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.50%EV -8.53%E -2.47%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.97%EV -6.96%E -2.28%K -3.39%G +0.000%9.4%2026-11-01 17:40
Fanatics🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -3.29%E -1.46%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -9.86%E -2.90%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.40%EV -5.43%E -1.75%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.1%2026-11-01 17:50
BetMGM🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -5.44%E -2.47%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -9.86%E -2.90%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -5.43%E -1.75%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.1%2026-11-01 14:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -5.44%E -2.47%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -9.86%E -2.90%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -5.43%E -1.75%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.1%2026-11-01 14:10
Neds🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -5.44%E -2.47%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -9.86%E -2.90%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -5.43%E -1.75%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.1%2026-11-01 14:09
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -5.44%E -2.47%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -9.86%E -2.90%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -5.43%E -1.75%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.1%2026-11-01 14:10
betfred_uk🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -7.59%E -3.53%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -9.86%E -2.90%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -8.48%E -2.83%K -4.24%G +0.000%9.3%2026-11-01 17:55
Winamax (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.35%EV -7.59%E -3.53%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.78%EV -9.86%E -2.90%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.87%EV -10.01%E -3.39%K -5.13%G +0.000%9.8%2026-11-01 15:10
Betr (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -9.74%E -4.64%K -8.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -9.86%E -2.90%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -8.48%E -2.83%K -4.24%G +0.000%10.4%2026-11-01 14:50
Sky Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.61%EV -9.74%E -4.64%K -8.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.32%EV -9.86%E -2.90%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.07%EV -12.14%E -4.22%K -6.46%G +0.000%11.8%2026-11-01 17:39
NetBet (FR)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 43.15%EV -11.03%E -5.33%K -10.31%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -9.86%E -2.90%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 30.59%EV -10.92%E -3.74%K -5.69%G +0.000%12.0%2026-11-01 17:55
Betclic (FR)🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 43.21%EV -12.75%E -6.28%K -12.38%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 26.74%EV -13.04%E -3.98%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 30.04%EV -10.92%E -3.74%K -5.69%G +0.000%14.0%2026-11-01 17:34
Winamax (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.32%EV -11.89%E -5.80%K -11.32%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.69%EV -13.84%E -4.26%K -6.15%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.98%EV -14.58%E -5.21%K -8.10%G +0.000%15.3%2026-11-01 15:09
Unibet (FR)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 44.52%EV -17.90%E -9.37%K -19.68%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.16%EV -13.84%E -4.26%K -6.15%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.32%EV -11.53%E -3.98%K -6.07%G +0.000%17.6%2026-11-01 17:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.30I 43.48%NM 42.96%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.67%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.37%1.2%2026-11-01 17:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.30I 43.48%NM 42.96%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.67%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.37%1.2%2026-11-01 17:55
Smarkets◎2.30I 43.48%NM 42.96%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.67%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.37%1.2%2026-11-01 17:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.28I 43.86%NM 43.18%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.57%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.25%1.6%2026-11-01 17:55
Kalshi◎2.22I 45.05%NM 44.17%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.47%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.36%2.0%2026-11-01 17:45

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