The School of Odds
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Boca Juniors v Central Córdoba

Kickoff: 2026-09-13 20:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Boca Juniors (Local)

Prediction 70.13%1.43fair odd
EV -4.62%
Edge -3.40%
Kelly -12.84%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.74%70.13%70.27%70.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.241.301.301.3680.65%76.98%76.92%73.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Central Córdoba (Visit)

Prediction 9.50%10.53fair odd
EV -5.04%
Edge -0.504%
Kelly -0.560%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 10.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.35%9.50%9.42%11.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.508.989.5010.0013.33%11.13%10.53%10.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.37%4.91fair odd
EV -6.28%
Edge -1.36%
Kelly -1.74%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.94%20.37%20.32%21.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.384.404.6025.00%22.83%22.73%21.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Boca Juniors (Local): 70.13%; Central Córdoba (Visit): 9.50%; Draw: 20.37%. For Boca Juniors (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.43. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.36, with an expected value of -4.62%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.62%EV -4.62%E -3.40%K -12.84%G +0.000%9.75I 10.26%NM 9.71%EV -7.42%E -0.761%K -0.848%G +0.000%4.58I 21.83%NM 20.67%EV -6.68%E -1.46%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-29 22:05
Marathon Bet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 69.57%EV -6.03%E -4.50%K -17.73%G +0.000%9.60I 10.42%NM 9.71%EV -8.84%E -0.921%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.72%EV -8.31%E -1.85%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-29 21:48
SportsBet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.32%EV -6.73%E -5.06%K -20.39%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.35%EV -5.04%E -0.504%K -0.560%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.33%EV -6.28%E -1.36%K -1.74%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-29 21:44
FanDuel🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.32%EV -6.73%E -5.06%K -20.39%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.35%EV -5.04%E -0.504%K -0.560%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.33%EV -6.28%E -1.36%K -1.74%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-29 21:45
Codere (IT)🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 70.50%EV -8.13%E -6.21%K -26.23%G +0.000%9.80I 10.20%NM 9.42%EV -6.94%E -0.708%K -0.789%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.08%EV -6.28%E -1.36%K -1.74%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-29 16:40
Paddy Power🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.82%EV -8.83%E -6.79%K -29.44%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.55%EV -9.79%E -1.03%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.63%EV -10.35%E -2.35%K -3.04%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-29 21:45
Sky Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 66.74%EV -8.83%E -6.79%K -29.44%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.57%EV -28.78%E -3.84%K -4.43%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.69%EV -18.50%E -4.63%K -6.17%G +0.000%15.3%2026-08-29 21:45
Winamax (DE)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 69.09%EV -10.94%E -8.61%K -40.50%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 10.97%EV -24.03%E -3.00%K -3.43%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.94%EV -10.35%E -2.35%K -3.04%G +0.000%14.0%2026-08-29 16:40
Winamax (FR)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 68.70%EV -11.64%E -9.24%K -44.76%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.17%EV -26.41%E -3.41%K -3.91%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.13%EV -12.39%E -2.88%K -3.75%G +0.000%15.5%2026-08-29 16:40
Betclic (FR)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 69.05%EV -12.34%E -9.87%K -49.35%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.15%EV -19.29%E -2.27%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 20.80%EV -15.44%E -3.72%K -4.90%G +0.000%15.9%2026-08-29 20:09
Unibet (FR)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 68.79%EV -13.04%E -10.52%K -54.33%G +0.000%8.40I 11.90%NM 10.15%EV -20.24%E -2.41%K -2.73%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 21.06%EV -17.48%E -4.32%K -5.73%G +0.000%17.2%2026-08-29 20:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.06I 94.34%NM 33.33%1.06I 94.34%NM 33.33%1.06I 94.34%NM 33.33%183.0%2026-08-29 17:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.06I 94.34%NM 33.33%1.06I 94.34%NM 33.33%1.06I 94.34%NM 33.33%183.0%2026-08-29 17:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-08-29 17:10