The School of Odds
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Boca Juniors v Central Córdoba

2026-09-12 00:30 UTC — Primera División - Argentina

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Boca Juniors (Local)

Prediction 70.32%1.42fair odd
EV -6.48%
Edge -4.87%
Kelly -19.63%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.74%70.32%70.32%70.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.301.311.311.3376.92%76.05%76.05%75.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Central Córdoba (Visit)

Prediction 9.35%10.69fair odd
EV -6.48%
Edge -0.648%
Kelly -0.720%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 10.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.35%9.35%9.35%11.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.509.259.7510.0013.33%10.81%10.26%10.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.33%4.92fair odd
EV -6.48%
Edge -1.41%
Kelly -1.80%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.33%20.33%20.33%21.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.404.504.6025.00%22.73%22.22%21.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Boca Juniors (Local): 70.32%; Central Córdoba (Visit): 9.35%; Draw: 20.33%. For Central Córdoba (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.69. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 10.00, with an expected value of -6.48%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
SportsBet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.32%EV -6.48%E -4.87%K -19.63%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.35%EV -6.48%E -0.648%K -0.720%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.33%EV -6.48%E -1.41%K -1.80%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-29 22:05
FanDuel🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.32%EV -6.48%E -4.87%K -19.63%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.35%EV -6.48%E -0.648%K -0.720%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.33%EV -6.48%E -1.41%K -1.80%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-29 22:03
Paddy Power🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.82%EV -8.59%E -6.61%K -28.63%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.55%EV -11.15%E -1.17%K -1.31%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.63%EV -10.54%E -2.40%K -3.10%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-29 22:05
Sky Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 66.74%EV -8.59%E -6.61%K -28.63%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.57%EV -29.86%E -3.98%K -4.59%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.69%EV -18.68%E -4.67%K -6.23%G +0.000%15.3%2026-08-29 22:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.36I 73.53%NM 28.04%1.06I 94.34%NM 35.98%1.06I 94.34%NM 35.98%162.2%2026-08-29 22:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.36I 73.53%NM 28.04%1.06I 94.34%NM 35.98%1.06I 94.34%NM 35.98%162.2%2026-08-29 22:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.36I 73.53%NM 27.37%1.04I 96.15%NM 35.79%1.01I 99.01%NM 36.85%168.7%2026-08-29 22:40