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Belgrano de Cordoba v Independiente Rivadavia

2026-08-15 22:00 UTC — Primera División - Argentina

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Belgrano de Cordoba (Local)

Prediction 47.07%2.12fair odd
EV -2.57%
Edge -1.24%
Kelly -2.40%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.07

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.68%47.07%46.93%48.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.931.922.0755.56%51.88%52.08%48.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Independiente Rivadavia (Visit)

Prediction 22.67%4.41fair odd
EV -2.51%
Edge -0.584%
Kelly -0.761%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.56%22.67%22.88%24.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.943.964.3027.78%25.35%25.22%23.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.26%3.30fair odd
EV -4.68%
Edge -1.49%
Kelly -2.18%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.67%30.26%30.19%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.852.993.023.1535.09%33.39%33.11%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Belgrano de Cordoba (Local): 47.07%; Independiente Rivadavia (Visit): 22.67%; Draw: 30.26%. For Independiente Rivadavia (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.41. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 4.30, with an expected value of -2.51%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet2.07I 48.31%NM 45.90%EV -2.57%E -1.24%K -2.40%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.46%EV -8.18%E -2.02%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -6.19%E -2.00%K -2.95%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-02 23:25
Bovada2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -3.51%E -1.71%K -3.34%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -9.31%E -2.33%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.77%EV -7.71%E -2.53%K -3.76%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-02 23:28
Marathon Bet2.03I 49.26%NM 45.92%EV -4.45%E -2.19%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 23.42%EV -9.77%E -2.45%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 30.66%EV -8.01%E -2.63%K -3.93%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-02 23:25
SportsBet1.99I 50.25%NM 46.96%EV -6.33%E -3.18%K -6.40%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -9.31%E -2.33%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.67%EV -4.68%E -1.49%K -2.18%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-02 19:15
FanDuel1.95I 51.28%NM 47.25%EV -8.22%E -4.21%K -8.65%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -9.31%E -2.33%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.72%EV -6.19%E -2.00%K -2.95%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-02 19:14
Codere (IT)1.93I 51.81%NM 48.04%EV -9.16%E -4.75%K -9.85%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.56%EV -2.51%E -0.584%K -0.761%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.40%EV -7.71%E -2.53%K -3.76%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-02 18:59
Paddy Power1.91I 52.36%NM 46.74%EV -10.10%E -5.29%K -11.10%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.50%EV -13.85%E -3.64%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.76%EV -9.22%E -3.07%K -4.61%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-02 19:15
Sky Bet1.91I 52.36%NM 45.68%EV -10.10%E -5.29%K -11.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.24%EV -18.38%E -5.11%K -7.07%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.09%EV -12.25%E -4.22%K -6.44%G +0.000%14.6%2026-08-02 19:14
Winamax (DE)1.84I 54.35%NM 47.72%EV -13.39%E -7.28%K -15.95%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.51%EV -11.58%E -2.97%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.76%EV -10.73%E -3.64%K -5.50%G +0.000%13.9%2026-08-02 19:00
Unibet (FR)1.83I 54.64%NM 47.50%EV -13.87%E -7.58%K -16.71%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.00%EV -10.45%E -2.64%K -3.54%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.50%EV -13.76%E -4.83%K -7.44%G +0.000%15.0%2026-08-02 19:00
Winamax (FR)1.82I 54.95%NM 47.47%EV -14.34%E -7.88%K -17.48%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.74%EV -13.85%E -3.64%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.79%EV -12.25%E -4.22%K -6.44%G +0.000%15.7%2026-08-02 19:00
Betclic (FR)1.80I 55.56%NM 47.91%EV -15.28%E -8.49%K -19.10%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 21.83%EV -10.45%E -2.64%K -3.54%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.26%EV -13.76%E -4.83%K -7.44%G +0.000%16.0%2026-08-02 18:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-08-02 19:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-08-02 19:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-08-02 19:55