Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Belgrano de Cordoba v Independiente Rivadavia

Kickoff: 2026-08-15 22:00 UTC

Final: Belgrano de Cordoba 2–0 Independiente Rivadavia

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

38 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Belgrano de Cordoba (Local)

Prediction 51.78%1.93fair odd
EV -4.20%
Edge -2.27%
Kelly -4.94%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.54%51.77%51.77%52.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.791.801.8558.82%55.92%55.56%54.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Independiente Rivadavia (Visit)

Prediction 19.33%5.17fair odd
EV +3.01%
Edge +0.565%
Kelly +0.696%
Growth +0.021%

assuming max odds 5.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.15%19.36%19.30%20.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.404.794.785.3322.73%20.88%20.94%18.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.89%3.46fair odd
EV -1.49%
Edge -0.436%
Kelly -0.617%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.41

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.02%28.86%28.93%29.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.193.203.4133.33%31.32%31.25%29.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Belgrano de Cordoba (Local): 51.78%; Independiente Rivadavia (Visit): 19.33%; Draw: 28.89%. For Independiente Rivadavia (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.17. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.33, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.01%.

Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
BetAnything🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.88%EV -5.24%E -2.86%K -6.31%G +0.000%5.33I 18.76%NM 18.15%EV +3.01%E +0.565%K +0.696%G +0.021%3.34I 29.94%NM 28.97%EV -3.51%E -1.05%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-15 21:39
LowVig.ag🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.88%EV -5.24%E -2.86%K -6.31%G +0.000%5.33I 18.76%NM 18.15%EV +3.01%E +0.565%K +0.696%G +0.021%3.34I 29.94%NM 28.97%EV -3.51%E -1.05%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-15 21:39
BetOnline.ag🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.88%EV -5.24%E -2.86%K -6.31%G +0.000%5.33I 18.76%NM 18.15%EV +3.01%E +0.565%K +0.696%G +0.021%3.34I 29.94%NM 28.97%EV -3.51%E -1.05%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-15 21:40
Pinnacle🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.80%EV -5.24%E -2.86%K -6.31%G +0.000%5.12I 19.53%NM 18.87%EV -1.05%E -0.204%K -0.254%G +0.000%3.41I 29.33%NM 28.33%EV -1.49%E -0.436%K -0.617%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-15 21:49
1xBet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.87%EV -4.20%E -2.27%K -4.94%G +0.000%5.06I 19.76%NM 18.96%EV -2.21%E -0.436%K -0.543%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 29.17%EV -4.95%E -1.51%K -2.16%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-15 21:54
Fanatics🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.60%EV -5.24%E -2.86%K -6.31%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.89%EV -3.37%E -0.673%K -0.841%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.51%EV -7.55%E -2.36%K -3.43%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-15 21:34
Unibet (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.25%EV -6.79%E -3.77%K -8.49%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV -3.37%E -0.673%K -0.841%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.94%EV -6.11%E -1.88%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-15 21:40
Unibet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 52.39%EV -7.31%E -4.08%K -9.25%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.76%EV -3.37%E -0.673%K -0.841%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.85%EV -6.11%E -1.88%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-15 21:44
Unibet (SE)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 52.39%EV -7.31%E -4.08%K -9.25%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.76%EV -3.37%E -0.673%K -0.841%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.85%EV -6.11%E -1.88%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-15 21:44
SportsBet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.50%EV -5.75%E -3.16%K -7.02%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.75%EV -3.37%E -0.673%K -0.841%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.76%EV -9.00%E -2.86%K -4.19%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-15 21:40
FanDuel🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.02%EV -6.79%E -3.77%K -8.49%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.73%EV -3.37%E -0.673%K -0.841%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.26%EV -7.55%E -2.36%K -3.43%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-15 21:39
NordicBet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.13%EV -4.20%E -2.27%K -4.94%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.31%EV -5.30%E -1.08%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.56%EV -7.55%E -2.36%K -3.43%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-15 21:29
Betsson🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.13%EV -4.20%E -2.27%K -4.94%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.31%EV -5.30%E -1.08%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.56%EV -7.55%E -2.36%K -3.43%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-15 21:30
DraftKings🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.64%EV -5.24%E -2.86%K -6.31%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.29%EV -5.30%E -1.08%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.08%EV -6.11%E -1.88%K -2.72%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-15 21:39
Codere (IT)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.78%EV -5.75%E -3.16%K -7.02%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.23%EV -5.30%E -1.08%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.99%EV -6.11%E -1.88%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-15 21:40
Bovada🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.57%EV -5.75%E -3.16%K -7.02%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.55%EV -7.23%E -1.51%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -6.11%E -1.88%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-15 21:48
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.07%EV -6.79%E -3.77%K -8.49%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.53%EV -7.23%E -1.51%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.40%EV -4.67%E -1.41%K -2.03%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-15 21:44
Marathon Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.80%EV -6.79%E -3.77%K -8.49%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.42%EV -7.23%E -1.51%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 28.78%EV -6.40%E -1.98%K -2.86%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-15 21:54
BetRivers🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.80%EV -8.34%E -4.71%K -10.83%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.10%EV -7.23%E -1.51%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.10%EV -9.00%E -2.86%K -4.19%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-15 21:44
BetMGM🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.96%EV -6.79%E -3.77%K -8.49%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.69%EV -8.20%E -1.73%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.34%EV -4.67%E -1.41%K -2.03%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-15 21:44
Betway🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.96%EV -6.79%E -3.77%K -8.49%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.69%EV -8.20%E -1.73%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.34%EV -4.67%E -1.41%K -2.03%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-15 21:40
Paddy Power🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.24%EV -9.38%E -5.36%K -12.50%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.88%EV -8.20%E -1.73%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -13.33%E -4.44%K -6.67%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-15 21:39
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.24%EV -9.38%E -5.36%K -12.50%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.88%EV -8.20%E -1.73%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -13.33%E -4.44%K -6.67%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-15 21:49
Unibet (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.59%EV -11.97%E -7.04%K -17.10%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.02%EV -9.16%E -1.95%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.38%EV -9.00%E -2.86%K -4.19%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-15 21:40
PlayUp🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.54%EV -5.24%E -2.86%K -6.31%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.10%EV -11.10%E -2.41%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.36%EV -9.00%E -2.86%K -4.19%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-15 21:54
Betclic (FR)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.61%EV -10.41%E -6.02%K -14.27%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.41%EV -11.10%E -2.41%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 28.99%EV -11.02%E -3.58%K -5.30%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-15 21:40
Virgin Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 51.75%EV -11.45%E -6.70%K -16.13%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.24%EV -11.10%E -2.41%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.01%EV -11.89%E -3.90%K -5.80%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-15 21:44
LiveScore Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 51.75%EV -11.45%E -6.70%K -16.13%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.24%EV -11.10%E -2.41%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.01%EV -11.89%E -3.90%K -5.80%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-15 21:44
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 51.65%EV -11.97%E -7.04%K -17.10%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.09%EV -11.10%E -2.41%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.27%EV -13.33%E -4.44%K -6.67%G +0.000%13.9%2026-08-15 21:44
BoyleSports🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.96%EV -6.79%E -3.77%K -8.49%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -13.03%E -2.90%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -7.55%E -2.36%K -3.43%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-15 21:40
betfred_uk🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.96%EV -6.79%E -3.77%K -8.49%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -13.03%E -2.90%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -7.55%E -2.36%K -3.43%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-15 21:55
Bet Right🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.96%EV -6.79%E -3.77%K -8.49%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -13.03%E -2.90%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -7.55%E -2.36%K -3.43%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-15 21:54
theScore Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.96%EV -6.79%E -3.77%K -8.49%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -13.03%E -2.90%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -7.55%E -2.36%K -3.43%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-15 21:39
Winamax (DE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 51.74%EV -8.86%E -5.03%K -11.66%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.24%EV -13.03%E -2.90%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.02%EV -6.11%E -1.88%K -2.72%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-15 21:39
Sky Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.70%EV -9.38%E -5.36%K -12.50%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.72%EV -13.03%E -2.90%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.58%EV -13.33%E -4.44%K -6.67%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-15 21:39
NetBet (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 51.68%EV -11.97%E -7.04%K -17.10%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.52%EV -13.03%E -2.90%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.80%EV -11.89%E -3.90%K -5.80%G +0.000%13.8%2026-08-15 21:55
Betr (AU)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 50.77%EV -7.82%E -4.40%K -10.03%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.54%EV -14.96%E -3.40%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.69%EV -9.00%E -2.86%K -4.19%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-15 21:54
Winamax (FR)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 51.34%EV -9.90%E -5.69%K -13.37%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.30%EV -14.96%E -3.40%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.36%EV -9.00%E -2.86%K -4.19%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-15 21:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.92I 52.08%NM 51.89%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.80%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.31%0.4%2026-08-15 21:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.92I 52.08%NM 51.89%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.80%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.31%0.4%2026-08-15 21:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.92I 52.08%NM 51.89%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.80%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.31%0.4%2026-08-15 21:55
Smarkets1.91I 52.36%NM 52.03%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.75%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.23%0.6%2026-08-15 21:55
Kalshi1.89I 52.91%NM 51.40%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.43%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.17%2.9%2026-08-15 21:55

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