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Barracas Central v Sarmiento de Junin

Kickoff: 2026-04-05 20:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Barracas Central (Local)

Prediction 38.81%2.58fair odd
EV +4.78%
Edge +1.77%
Kelly +2.81%
Growth +0.134%

assuming max odds 2.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.54%38.79%38.78%39.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.352.382.7046.51%42.48%42.02%37.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sarmiento de Junin (Visit)

Prediction 29.34%3.41fair odd
EV +2.67%
Edge +0.764%
Kelly +1.07%
Growth +0.029%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.81%29.31%29.46%32.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.703.033.003.5037.04%33.03%33.33%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 31.86%3.14fair odd
EV -1.24%
Edge -0.400%
Kelly -0.590%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.45%31.90%31.77%35.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.622.812.803.1038.17%35.57%35.71%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Barracas Central (Local): 38.81%; Sarmiento de Junin (Visit): 29.34%; Draw: 31.86%. For Barracas Central (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.58. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.78%.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Bovada🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.54%EV +4.78%E +1.77%K +2.81%G +0.134%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.16%EV -14.93%E -5.15%K -7.86%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.30%EV -10.80%E -3.86%K -6.00%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-02 07:59
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.72%EV -2.98%E -1.19%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -4.66%E -1.43%K -2.07%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.04%EV -16.53%E -6.31%K -10.20%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-02 18:10
FanDuel🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.30%EV -4.92%E -2.01%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.48%EV -9.06%E -2.92%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.23%EV -12.39%E -4.51%K -7.08%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-02 18:09
1xBet🎯2.41I 41.49%NM 38.82%EV -6.48%E -2.69%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 29.89%EV -8.18%E -2.61%K -3.84%G +0.000%2.99I 33.44%NM 31.29%EV -4.74%E -1.59%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-26 23:35
Fanatics🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.62%EV -6.86%E -2.86%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.71%EV -6.13%E -1.91%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.67%EV -1.24%E -0.400%K -0.590%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-26 09:30
SportsBet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -6.86%E -2.86%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -11.99%E -4.00%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -4.43%E -1.48%K -2.21%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-27 04:26
Betway🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -6.86%E -2.86%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -14.93%E -5.15%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -4.43%E -1.48%K -2.21%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-27 06:39
Marathon Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.21%EV -7.64%E -3.21%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -4.66%E -1.43%K -2.07%G +0.000%2.91I 34.36%NM 32.07%EV -7.29%E -2.51%K -3.82%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-02 18:10
BoyleSports🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.63%EV -7.64%E -3.21%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.66%EV -9.06%E -2.92%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -7.61%E -2.62%K -4.01%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-27 10:09
Sky Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.06%EV -7.64%E -3.21%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.40%EV -11.99%E -4.00%K -6.00%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.54%EV -16.21%E -6.16%K -9.95%G +0.000%13.4%2026-04-02 18:10
Betsson🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.92%EV -8.81%E -3.75%K -6.52%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.81%EV +2.67%E +0.764%K +1.07%G +0.029%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.27%EV -10.16%E -3.60%K -5.58%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-27 04:29
NordicBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.92%EV -8.81%E -3.75%K -6.52%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.81%EV +2.67%E +0.764%K +1.07%G +0.029%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.27%EV -10.16%E -3.60%K -5.58%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-27 04:29
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 37.41%EV -10.75%E -4.67%K -8.27%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.88%EV -15.51%E -5.39%K -8.25%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 32.72%EV -16.21%E -6.16%K -9.95%G +0.000%16.2%2026-03-27 06:14
Winamax (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 38.36%EV -12.69%E -5.64%K -10.15%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.82%EV -17.86%E -6.38%K -9.92%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.82%EV -10.80%E -3.86%K -6.00%G +0.000%15.9%2026-03-26 09:23
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 38.35%EV -12.69%E -5.64%K -10.15%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.28%EV -16.39%E -5.75%K -8.86%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.38%EV -12.39%E -4.51%K -7.08%G +0.000%15.9%2026-03-26 09:24
Unibet (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 38.35%EV -12.69%E -5.64%K -10.15%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.28%EV -16.39%E -5.75%K -8.86%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.38%EV -12.39%E -4.51%K -7.08%G +0.000%15.9%2026-03-26 09:25
Betclic (FR)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 38.64%EV -13.46%E -6.04%K -10.94%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 30.02%EV -15.81%E -5.51%K -8.45%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.33%EV -12.39%E -4.51%K -7.08%G +0.000%16.0%2026-03-26 09:19
Winamax (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 38.03%EV -14.63%E -6.65%K -12.19%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 30.99%EV -20.79%E -7.70%K -12.23%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 30.99%EV -13.98%E -5.18%K -8.23%G +0.000%19.5%2026-03-26 09:24
PMU (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 38.79%EV -16.57%E -7.71%K -14.41%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 30.33%EV -19.33%E -7.03%K -11.04%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 30.89%EV -13.98%E -5.18%K -8.23%G +0.000%19.9%2026-03-27 06:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.05I 95.24%NM 33.23%1.05I 95.24%NM 33.23%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.55%186.6%2026-03-27 06:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.05I 95.24%NM 33.23%1.05I 95.24%NM 33.23%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.55%186.6%2026-03-27 01:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.02I 98.04%NM 33.77%190.3%2026-03-27 01:25