The School of Odds
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Barracas Central v Atlético Huracán

Kickoff: 2026-10-11 20:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Barracas Central (Local)

Prediction 29.60%3.38fair odd
EV -3.81%
Edge -1.17%
Kelly -1.69%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.73%29.67%29.43%30.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.053.053.2535.71%32.78%32.79%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Atlético Huracán (Visit)

Prediction 37.25%2.68fair odd
EV -3.88%
Edge -1.51%
Kelly -2.46%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.58

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.78%37.30%37.28%38.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.442.452.5843.48%41.06%40.82%38.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 33.15%3.02fair odd
EV -2.21%
Edge -0.750%
Kelly -1.13%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.37%33.03%33.30%34.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.772.802.9539.22%36.06%35.71%33.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Barracas Central (Local): 29.60%; Atlético Huracán (Visit): 37.25%; Draw: 33.15%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.02. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.95, with an expected value of -2.21%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.24%EV -3.81%E -1.17%K -1.69%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 36.83%EV -3.88%E -1.51%K -2.46%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.94%EV -7.19%E -2.57%K -3.99%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-26 11:43
Codere (IT)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -5.29%E -1.65%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.94%EV -6.86%E -2.75%K -4.58%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -10.50%E -3.89%K -6.18%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-21 01:24
Marathon Bet🎯3.18I 31.45%NM 29.26%EV -5.88%E -1.85%K -2.70%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 36.78%EV -5.75%E -2.27%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 33.96%EV -9.17%E -3.35%K -5.27%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-26 11:41
Bovada🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.22%EV -8.25%E -2.66%K -3.93%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -6.86%E -2.75%K -4.58%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.31%EV -3.87%E -1.33%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-21 06:14
BoyleSports🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -8.25%E -2.66%K -3.93%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -10.59%E -4.41%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -7.19%E -2.57%K -3.99%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-21 06:53
Betclic (FR)🎯3.08I 32.47%NM 28.78%EV -8.84%E -2.87%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 37.40%EV -11.71%E -4.94%K -8.55%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.83%EV -13.15%E -5.02%K -8.12%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-26 20:05
NordicBet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.86%EV -9.73%E -3.19%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.91%EV -5.00%E -1.96%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.23%EV -3.21%E -1.10%K -1.67%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-25 04:10
Betsson🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.86%EV -9.73%E -3.19%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.91%EV -5.00%E -1.96%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.23%EV -3.21%E -1.10%K -1.67%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-25 04:10
SportsBet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.50%EV -9.73%E -3.19%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -8.73%E -3.56%K -6.02%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.53%EV -2.21%E -0.750%K -1.13%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-21 01:34
FanDuel🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -11.21%E -3.74%K -5.60%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.78%EV -8.73%E -3.56%K -6.02%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.37%EV -2.21%E -0.750%K -1.13%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-21 01:34
Paddy Power🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.11%EV -11.21%E -3.74%K -5.60%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.63%EV -10.59%E -4.41%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.26%EV -7.19%E -2.57%K -3.99%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-21 01:34
Winamax (DE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.34%EV -11.21%E -3.74%K -5.60%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.45%EV -12.45%E -5.30%K -9.22%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.21%EV -12.16%E -4.59%K -7.37%G +0.000%13.6%2026-09-21 01:24
Unibet (FR)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 28.73%EV -11.21%E -3.74%K -5.60%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.47%EV -14.31%E -6.22%K -11.01%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 33.80%EV -15.47%E -6.07%K -9.98%G +0.000%16.0%2026-09-26 20:04
Winamax (FR)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 29.62%EV -14.17%E -4.89%K -7.46%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.35%EV -14.31%E -6.22%K -11.01%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.04%EV -13.82%E -5.31%K -8.63%G +0.000%16.4%2026-09-21 01:24
Sky Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 30.73%EV -17.13%E -6.12%K -9.51%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.41%EV -14.31%E -6.22%K -11.01%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 31.87%EV -10.50%E -3.89%K -6.18%G +0.000%16.2%2026-09-21 01:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.09I 91.74%NM 35.37%1.15I 86.96%NM 33.53%1.24I 80.65%NM 31.10%159.3%2026-09-26 14:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.17I 85.47%NM 32.84%1.17I 85.47%NM 32.84%1.12I 89.29%NM 34.31%160.2%2026-09-26 15:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.17I 85.47%NM 32.84%1.17I 85.47%NM 32.84%1.12I 89.29%NM 34.31%160.2%2026-09-26 15:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.17I 85.47%NM 32.84%1.17I 85.47%NM 32.84%1.12I 89.29%NM 34.31%160.2%2026-09-26 15:35