The School of Odds
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Banfield v Belgrano de Cordoba

2026-08-10 22:00 UTC — Primera División - Argentina

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Banfield (Local)

Prediction 30.57%3.27fair odd
EV -5.22%
Edge -1.68%
Kelly -2.49%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.24%30.57%30.49%31.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.942.953.1036.36%34.04%33.90%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Belgrano de Cordoba (Visit)

Prediction 37.80%2.65fair odd
EV -2.46%
Edge -0.955%
Kelly -1.56%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.58

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.82%37.80%38.09%38.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.402.402.5843.48%41.62%41.67%38.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 31.62%3.16fair odd
EV -5.13%
Edge -1.71%
Kelly -2.57%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.01%31.62%31.42%32.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.652.842.873.0037.74%35.24%34.90%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Banfield (Local): 30.57%; Belgrano de Cordoba (Visit): 37.80%; Draw: 31.62%. For Belgrano de Cordoba (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.65. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.58, with an expected value of -2.46%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet3.10I 32.26%NM 30.64%EV -5.22%E -1.68%K -2.49%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 36.82%EV -2.46%E -0.955%K -1.56%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.53%EV -7.66%E -2.62%K -3.99%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-02 19:19
Fanatics3.10I 32.26%NM 30.32%EV -5.22%E -1.68%K -2.49%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.36%EV -7.38%E -3.01%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.33%EV -5.13%E -1.71%K -2.57%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-02 19:29
SportsBet3.05I 32.79%NM 30.66%EV -6.75%E -2.21%K -3.29%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.17%EV -7.38%E -3.01%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.17%EV -5.13%E -1.71%K -2.57%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-02 15:14
Codere (IT)3.05I 32.79%NM 30.39%EV -6.75%E -2.21%K -3.29%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.08%EV -5.49%E -2.20%K -3.66%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.53%EV -9.88%E -3.47%K -5.34%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-02 19:19
FanDuel3.00I 33.33%NM 31.01%EV -8.28%E -2.76%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -7.38%E -3.01%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.01%EV -5.13%E -1.71%K -2.57%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-02 15:15
betfred_uk3.00I 33.33%NM 30.38%EV -8.28%E -2.76%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.97%EV -9.27%E -3.86%K -6.62%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.65%EV -8.93%E -3.10%K -4.75%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-02 15:15
Paddy Power2.90I 34.48%NM 31.10%EV -11.34%E -3.91%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.58%EV -9.27%E -3.86%K -6.62%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.32%EV -8.93%E -3.10%K -4.75%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-02 15:14
Unibet (FR)2.85I 35.09%NM 30.41%EV -12.86%E -4.51%K -6.95%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 36.88%EV -11.16%E -4.75%K -8.27%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 32.71%EV -16.20%E -6.11%K -9.82%G +0.000%15.4%2026-08-02 19:19
Betclic (FR)2.85I 35.09%NM 30.24%EV -12.86%E -4.51%K -6.95%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.48%EV -13.05%E -5.67%K -10.04%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 32.28%EV -15.57%E -5.83%K -9.32%G +0.000%16.0%2026-08-02 19:19
Winamax (DE)2.80I 35.71%NM 31.16%EV -14.39%E -5.14%K -8.00%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.12%EV -11.16%E -4.75%K -8.27%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.72%EV -13.04%E -4.74%K -7.45%G +0.000%14.6%2026-08-02 19:20
Sky Bet2.80I 35.71%NM 30.91%EV -14.39%E -5.14%K -8.00%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.63%EV -13.05%E -5.67%K -10.04%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.47%EV -13.04%E -4.74%K -7.45%G +0.000%15.6%2026-08-02 15:14
Winamax (FR)2.75I 36.36%NM 31.11%EV -15.92%E -5.79%K -9.10%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.20%EV -13.05%E -5.67%K -10.04%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 31.69%EV -14.62%E -5.42%K -8.60%G +0.000%16.9%2026-08-02 19:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets2.82I 35.46%NM 30.55%2.34I 42.74%NM 36.82%2.64I 37.88%NM 32.63%16.1%2026-08-02 19:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.19I 84.03%NM 31.46%1.19I 84.03%NM 31.46%1.01I 99.01%NM 37.07%167.1%2026-08-02 15:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.19I 84.03%NM 31.46%1.19I 84.03%NM 31.46%1.01I 99.01%NM 37.07%167.1%2026-08-02 15:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.19I 84.03%NM 31.46%1.19I 84.03%NM 31.46%1.01I 99.01%NM 37.07%167.1%2026-08-02 15:15