Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Banfield v Argentinos Juniors

2026-10-17 18:00 UTC — Primera División - Argentina

Resultado del partido

25 corredores (8 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Banfield (Local)

Predicción 19.69%5.08momio equitativo
EV -3.53%
Ventaja -0.721%
Kelly -0.906%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.90

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
18.92%20.81%19.65%25.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.504.284.404.9028.57%23.35%22.73%20.41%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Argentinos Juniors (Visitante)

Predicción 52.64%1.90momio equitativo
EV +5.28%
Ventaja +2.64%
Kelly +5.28%
Crecimiento +0.279%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
46.32%51.49%52.64%53.28%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.591.801.782.0062.89%55.44%56.18%50.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 27.67%3.61momio equitativo
EV -4.53%
Ventaja -1.31%
Kelly -1.85%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.45

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.81%27.70%27.71%28.84%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.053.293.303.4532.79%30.44%30.30%28.99%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Banfield (Local): 19.69%; Argentinos Juniors (Visitante): 52.64%; Empate: 27.67%. Para Argentinos Juniors (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 1.90. 7 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 2.00, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +5.28%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (25 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Unibet (SE)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.68%EV -25.19%E -6.63%K -9.00%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.90%EV +5.28%E +2.64%K +5.28%G +0.279%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -8.68%E -2.63%K -3.78%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-10 18:00
Unibet🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.68%EV -25.19%E -6.63%K -9.00%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.90%EV +5.28%E +2.64%K +5.28%G +0.279%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -8.68%E -2.63%K -3.78%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-10 18:00
BetRivers🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.73%EV -27.16%E -7.34%K -10.06%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 46.68%EV +3.18%E +1.62%K +3.31%G +0.105%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.59%EV -11.45%E -3.58%K -5.20%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-10 18:00
LiveScore Bet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.84%EV -29.13%E -8.09%K -11.20%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 46.32%EV +1.60%E +0.828%K +1.72%G +0.027%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.84%EV -14.22%E -4.59%K -6.77%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-10 18:00
Virgin Bet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.84%EV -29.13%E -8.09%K -11.20%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 46.32%EV +1.60%E +0.828%K +1.72%G +0.027%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.84%EV -14.22%E -4.59%K -6.77%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-10 18:00
Betsson🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.00%EV -27.16%E -7.34%K -10.06%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.18%EV +1.07%E +0.558%K +1.16%G +0.012%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.81%EV -4.53%E -1.31%K -1.85%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-10 18:15
NordicBet🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.00%EV -27.16%E -7.34%K -10.06%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.18%EV +1.07%E +0.558%K +1.16%G +0.012%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.81%EV -4.53%E -1.31%K -1.85%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-10 18:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 24.94%EV -31.10%E -8.88%K -12.44%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 46.44%EV -1.03%E -0.550%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.62%EV -15.60%E -5.12%K -7.61%G +0.000%14.5%2026-10-10 18:00
1xBet🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.22%EV -7.47%E -1.59%K -2.02%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.92%EV -3.67%E -2.00%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.41I 29.33%NM 27.86%EV -5.64%E -1.65%K -2.34%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-10 14:00
Fanatics🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.86%EV -6.49%E -1.37%K -1.73%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.40%EV -5.25%E -2.91%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.74%EV -5.92%E -1.74%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-10 14:01
betfred_uk🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 21.20%EV -14.76%E -3.41%K -4.43%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.99%EV -5.25%E -2.91%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.81%EV -8.68%E -2.63%K -3.78%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-10 14:00
SportsBet🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.34%EV -9.44%E -2.05%K -2.62%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.55%EV -6.30%E -3.54%K -8.07%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.11%EV -4.53%E -1.31%K -1.85%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-10 14:00
Bet Right🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.90%EV -13.38%E -3.04%K -3.93%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 51.66%EV -6.30%E -3.54%K -8.07%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.45%EV -7.30%E -2.18%K -3.11%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-10 18:05
FanDuel🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.19%EV -9.44%E -2.05%K -2.62%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.48%EV -6.82%E -3.86%K -8.86%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.32%EV -5.92%E -1.74%K -2.47%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-10 13:59
Bovada🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.54%EV -5.50%E -1.15%K -1.45%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.28%EV -7.35%E -4.18%K -9.67%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.18%EV -4.53%E -1.31%K -1.85%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-10 13:59
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.40%EV -5.50%E -1.15%K -1.45%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.21%EV -7.88%E -4.50%K -10.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -5.92%E -1.74%K -2.47%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-10 14:00
Codere (IT)🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 18.92%EV -3.53%E -0.721%K -0.906%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.98%EV -7.88%E -4.50%K -10.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.10%EV -8.68%E -2.63%K -3.78%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-10 18:20
BetMGM🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.50%EV -6.49%E -1.37%K -1.73%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 53.25%EV -8.40%E -4.83%K -11.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.25%EV -5.92%E -1.74%K -2.47%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-10 14:00
BoyleSports🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.29%EV -6.49%E -1.37%K -1.73%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 52.95%EV -8.93%E -5.16%K -12.23%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -8.68%E -2.63%K -3.78%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-10 14:00
Paddy Power🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.51%EV -13.38%E -3.04%K -3.93%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 52.15%EV -8.93%E -5.16%K -12.23%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.34%EV -8.68%E -2.63%K -3.78%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-10 14:01
Betclic (FR)🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 18.98%EV -6.49%E -1.37%K -1.73%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.03%EV -10.51%E -6.18%K -15.01%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 28.00%EV -10.90%E -3.38%K -4.91%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-10 18:19
Sky Bet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 21.54%EV -21.25%E -5.31%K -7.08%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 50.67%EV -10.51%E -6.18%K -15.01%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.79%EV -14.22%E -4.59%K -6.77%G +0.000%16.1%2026-10-10 13:57
Winamax (DE)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.02%EV -13.38%E -3.04%K -3.93%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 52.44%EV -11.56%E -6.88%K -17.00%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.53%EV -11.45%E -3.58%K -5.20%G +0.000%13.5%2026-10-10 18:20
Winamax (FR)🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 20.18%EV -15.35%E -3.57%K -4.65%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 52.27%EV -12.62%E -7.60%K -19.11%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.55%EV -12.83%E -4.07%K -5.97%G +0.000%15.2%2026-10-10 18:20
Unibet (FR)🎯4.45I 22.47%NM 19.02%EV -12.39%E -2.78%K -3.59%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 53.23%EV -16.30%E -10.25%K -27.63%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 27.75%EV -15.60%E -5.12%K -7.61%G +0.000%18.2%2026-10-10 18:20
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (4)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Smarkets◎4.40I 22.73%NM 19.54%1.66I 60.24%NM 51.80%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.66%16.3%2026-10-10 18:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 33.53%1.12I 89.29%NM 32.93%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.53%171.1%2026-10-10 20:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 33.53%1.12I 89.29%NM 32.93%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.53%171.1%2026-10-10 18:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 33.53%1.12I 89.29%NM 32.93%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.53%171.1%2026-10-10 20:30
Arbitraje (34 combinaciones) +0.61%Codere (IT) 4.90 (20.5%) / Unibet (SE) 2.00 (50.3%) / SportsBet 3.45 (29.2%)Ver las 34 combinaciones
Banfield (Local)Argentinos Juniors (Visitante)EmpateMargen
Codere (IT)🎯 4.90 (20.5%)Unibet (SE)🎯 2.00 (50.3%)Bovada🎯 3.45 (29.2%)+0.610%
Codere (IT)🎯 4.90 (20.5%)Unibet (SE)🎯 2.00 (50.3%)SportsBet🎯 3.45 (29.2%)+0.610%
Codere (IT)🎯 4.90 (20.5%)Unibet (SE)🎯 2.00 (50.3%)Betsson🎯 3.45 (29.2%)+0.610%
Codere (IT)🎯 4.90 (20.5%)Unibet (SE)🎯 2.00 (50.3%)NordicBet🎯 3.45 (29.2%)+0.610%
Codere (IT)🎯 4.90 (20.5%)Unibet🎯 2.00 (50.3%)Bovada🎯 3.45 (29.2%)+0.610%
Codere (IT)🎯 4.90 (20.5%)Unibet🎯 2.00 (50.3%)SportsBet🎯 3.45 (29.2%)+0.610%
Codere (IT)🎯 4.90 (20.5%)Unibet🎯 2.00 (50.3%)Betsson🎯 3.45 (29.2%)+0.610%
Codere (IT)🎯 4.90 (20.5%)Unibet🎯 2.00 (50.3%)NordicBet🎯 3.45 (29.2%)+0.610%
Codere (IT)🎯 4.90 (20.5%)Unibet (SE)🎯 2.00 (50.1%)1xBet🎯 3.41 (29.4%)+0.267%
Codere (IT)🎯 4.90 (20.5%)Unibet🎯 2.00 (50.1%)1xBet🎯 3.41 (29.4%)+0.267%
Bovada🎯 4.80 (20.9%)Unibet (SE)🎯 2.00 (50.1%)Bovada🎯 3.45 (29.0%)+0.181%
Bovada🎯 4.80 (20.9%)Unibet (SE)🎯 2.00 (50.1%)SportsBet🎯 3.45 (29.0%)+0.181%
Bovada🎯 4.80 (20.9%)Unibet (SE)🎯 2.00 (50.1%)Betsson🎯 3.45 (29.0%)+0.181%
Bovada🎯 4.80 (20.9%)Unibet (SE)🎯 2.00 (50.1%)NordicBet🎯 3.45 (29.0%)+0.181%
Bovada🎯 4.80 (20.9%)Unibet🎯 2.00 (50.1%)Bovada🎯 3.45 (29.0%)+0.181%
Bovada🎯 4.80 (20.9%)Unibet🎯 2.00 (50.1%)SportsBet🎯 3.45 (29.0%)+0.181%
Bovada🎯 4.80 (20.9%)Unibet🎯 2.00 (50.1%)Betsson🎯 3.45 (29.0%)+0.181%
Bovada🎯 4.80 (20.9%)Unibet🎯 2.00 (50.1%)NordicBet🎯 3.45 (29.0%)+0.181%
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 4.80 (20.9%)Unibet (SE)🎯 2.00 (50.1%)Bovada🎯 3.45 (29.0%)+0.181%
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 4.80 (20.9%)Unibet (SE)🎯 2.00 (50.1%)SportsBet🎯 3.45 (29.0%)+0.181%
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 4.80 (20.9%)Unibet (SE)🎯 2.00 (50.1%)Betsson🎯 3.45 (29.0%)+0.181%
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 4.80 (20.9%)Unibet (SE)🎯 2.00 (50.1%)NordicBet🎯 3.45 (29.0%)+0.181%
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 4.80 (20.9%)Unibet🎯 2.00 (50.1%)Bovada🎯 3.45 (29.0%)+0.181%
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 4.80 (20.9%)Unibet🎯 2.00 (50.1%)SportsBet🎯 3.45 (29.0%)+0.181%
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 4.80 (20.9%)Unibet🎯 2.00 (50.1%)Betsson🎯 3.45 (29.0%)+0.181%
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 4.80 (20.9%)Unibet🎯 2.00 (50.1%)NordicBet🎯 3.45 (29.0%)+0.181%
Codere (IT)🎯 4.90 (20.4%)Unibet (SE)🎯 2.00 (50.1%)Fanatics🎯 3.40 (29.5%)+0.180%
Codere (IT)🎯 4.90 (20.4%)Unibet (SE)🎯 2.00 (50.1%)Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 3.40 (29.5%)+0.180%
Codere (IT)🎯 4.90 (20.4%)Unibet (SE)🎯 2.00 (50.1%)FanDuel🎯 3.40 (29.5%)+0.180%
Codere (IT)🎯 4.90 (20.4%)Unibet (SE)🎯 2.00 (50.1%)BetMGM🎯 3.40 (29.5%)+0.180%
Codere (IT)🎯 4.90 (20.4%)Unibet🎯 2.00 (50.1%)Fanatics🎯 3.40 (29.5%)+0.180%
Codere (IT)🎯 4.90 (20.4%)Unibet🎯 2.00 (50.1%)Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 3.40 (29.5%)+0.180%
Codere (IT)🎯 4.90 (20.4%)Unibet🎯 2.00 (50.1%)FanDuel🎯 3.40 (29.5%)+0.180%
Codere (IT)🎯 4.90 (20.4%)Unibet🎯 2.00 (50.1%)BetMGM🎯 3.40 (29.5%)+0.180%