The School of Odds
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Banfield v Argentinos Juniors

Kickoff: 2026-10-18 20:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Banfield (Local)

Prediction 19.31%5.18fair odd
EV -3.47%
Edge -0.695%
Kelly -0.869%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.39%19.32%19.29%21.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.584.605.0025.00%21.83%21.74%20.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Argentinos Juniors (Visit)

Prediction 53.01%1.89fair odd
EV -2.99%
Edge -1.63%
Kelly -3.60%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.67%53.01%52.95%53.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.721.731.8363.69%58.24%57.80%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.68%3.61fair odd
EV -4.50%
Edge -1.30%
Kelly -1.84%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.00%27.67%27.76%27.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.293.303.4532.79%30.42%30.30%28.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Banfield (Local): 19.31%; Argentinos Juniors (Visit): 53.01%; Draw: 27.68%. For Argentinos Juniors (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.89. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.83, with an expected value of -2.99%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Codere (IT)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.52%EV -3.47%E -0.695%K -0.869%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 53.84%EV -8.82%E -5.13%K -12.25%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.64%EV -7.27%E -2.17%K -3.09%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-04 01:25
Betclic (FR)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 18.39%EV -7.34%E -1.53%K -1.93%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 53.84%EV -13.06%E -7.96%K -20.40%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 27.77%EV -11.97%E -3.76%K -5.49%G +0.000%13.3%2026-10-04 01:24
BoyleSports🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.29%EV -8.30%E -1.75%K -2.21%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 52.95%EV -8.29%E -4.79%K -11.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -8.65%E -2.62%K -3.76%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-04 06:35
1xBet🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.22%EV -9.27%E -1.97%K -2.50%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.92%EV -2.99%E -1.63%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.41I 29.33%NM 27.86%EV -5.60%E -1.64%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-04 01:25
Bovada🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.45%EV -11.20%E -2.43%K -3.11%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.27%EV -4.58%E -2.54%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.27%EV -4.50%E -1.30%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-04 15:33
SportsBet🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.34%EV -11.20%E -2.43%K -3.11%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.55%EV -5.64%E -3.17%K -7.23%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.11%EV -4.50%E -1.30%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-04 01:24
Marathon Bet🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.21%EV -11.20%E -2.43%K -3.11%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 51.95%EV -5.11%E -2.85%K -6.46%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 27.84%EV -7.54%E -2.26%K -3.22%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-04 01:42
FanDuel🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.19%EV -11.20%E -2.43%K -3.11%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.48%EV -6.17%E -3.48%K -8.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.32%EV -5.88%E -1.73%K -2.45%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-04 01:29
Unibet (FR)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 18.39%EV -11.20%E -2.43%K -3.11%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 53.88%EV -16.77%E -10.68%K -29.42%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 27.73%EV -15.57%E -5.11%K -7.60%G +0.000%18.2%2026-10-04 22:25
Winamax (DE)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 19.50%EV -13.13%E -2.92%K -3.75%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 53.50%EV -13.06%E -7.96%K -20.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.00%EV -10.03%E -3.09%K -4.46%G +0.000%14.0%2026-10-04 01:24
Paddy Power🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.51%EV -15.06%E -3.42%K -4.43%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 52.15%EV -8.29%E -4.79%K -11.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.34%EV -8.65%E -2.62%K -3.76%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-04 01:24
Winamax (FR)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 19.56%EV -15.06%E -3.42%K -4.43%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 53.12%EV -14.12%E -8.72%K -22.77%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.32%EV -12.80%E -4.06%K -5.95%G +0.000%16.2%2026-10-04 01:24
Sky Bet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 21.54%EV -22.78%E -5.69%K -7.59%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 50.67%EV -9.88%E -5.81%K -14.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.79%EV -14.19%E -4.58%K -6.76%G +0.000%16.1%2026-10-04 01:52
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.08I 48.08%NM 25.93%1.12I 89.29%NM 48.15%2.08I 48.08%NM 25.93%85.4%2026-10-05 15:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.08I 48.08%NM 25.93%1.12I 89.29%NM 48.15%2.08I 48.08%NM 25.93%85.4%2026-10-05 15:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 33.53%1.12I 89.29%NM 32.93%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.53%171.1%2026-10-04 03:35