The School of Odds
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Atlético Huracán v Gimnasia La Plata

Kickoff: 2026-10-18 20:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Atlético Huracán (Local)

Prediction 39.91%2.51fair odd
EV -4.23%
Edge -1.76%
Kelly -3.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.00%39.70%39.93%41.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.292.322.4048.78%43.57%43.10%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Gimnasia La Plata (Visit)

Prediction 29.22%3.42fair odd
EV -5.05%
Edge -1.55%
Kelly -2.24%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.63%29.41%29.26%31.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.043.023.2535.71%32.90%33.06%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.88%3.24fair odd
EV -4.27%
Edge -1.38%
Kelly -2.04%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.08%30.89%30.81%32.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.802.942.953.1035.71%34.00%33.90%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Atlético Huracán (Local): 39.91%; Gimnasia La Plata (Visit): 29.22%; Draw: 30.88%. For Atlético Huracán (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.51. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.40, with an expected value of -4.23%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
SportsBet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -4.23%E -1.76%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.57%EV -10.89%E -3.57%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.57%EV -5.82%E -1.91%K -2.84%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-04 00:58
Bovada🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -4.23%E -1.76%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -12.35%E -4.12%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -4.27%E -1.38%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-04 15:43
FanDuel🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -4.23%E -1.76%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -12.35%E -4.12%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -7.36%E -2.45%K -3.68%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-04 01:00
Paddy Power🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -4.23%E -1.76%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -9.43%E -3.04%K -4.49%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -13.54%E -4.83%K -7.52%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-12 03:23
1xBet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.92%EV -5.03%E -2.11%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.23%EV -5.05%E -1.55%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 30.85%EV -4.89%E -1.59%K -2.35%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-04 01:50
betfred_uk🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -5.03%E -2.11%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -12.35%E -4.12%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -7.36%E -2.45%K -3.68%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-10 14:00
Marathon Bet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.93%EV -7.02%E -3.01%K -5.28%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.26%EV -7.10%E -2.23%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 30.81%EV -6.74%E -2.23%K -3.34%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-04 01:42
Codere (IT)🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 40.13%EV -7.82%E -3.38%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.97%EV -6.51%E -2.03%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.90%EV -7.36%E -2.45%K -3.68%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-04 01:00
BoyleSports🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -8.22%E -3.57%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -9.43%E -3.04%K -4.49%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -10.45%E -3.60%K -5.50%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-04 06:40
Sky Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 38.36%EV -10.21%E -4.54%K -8.17%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.82%EV -18.20%E -6.50%K -10.11%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.82%EV -13.54%E -4.83%K -7.52%G +0.000%15.9%2026-10-04 01:25
Winamax (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.93%EV -12.21%E -5.55%K -10.17%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.78%EV -13.81%E -4.68%K -7.08%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.29%EV -10.45%E -3.60%K -5.50%G +0.000%13.8%2026-10-04 01:00
Betclic (FR)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 40.53%EV -13.01%E -5.97%K -11.02%G +0.000%3.07I 32.57%NM 28.78%EV -10.31%E -3.36%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.68%EV -11.07%E -3.84%K -5.89%G +0.000%13.2%2026-10-04 01:00
Winamax (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.07%EV -14.20%E -6.61%K -12.35%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.71%EV -15.28%E -5.27%K -8.04%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.23%EV -11.99%E -4.21%K -6.48%G +0.000%16.1%2026-10-04 01:00
Unibet (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 41.20%EV -18.19%E -8.88%K -17.33%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 28.63%EV -13.81%E -4.68%K -7.08%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.17%EV -13.54%E -4.83%K -7.52%G +0.000%18.4%2026-10-04 22:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎2.26I 44.25%NM 37.93%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.58%2.56I 39.06%NM 33.49%16.6%2026-10-10 20:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%172.7%2026-10-04 01:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%172.7%2026-10-04 01:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 32.92%1.10I 90.91%NM 32.92%1.06I 94.34%NM 34.16%176.2%2026-10-11 07:05