The School of Odds
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Argentinos Juniors v Lanus

Kickoff: 2026-02-22 15:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

36 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Argentinos Juniors (Local)

Prediction 55.46%1.80fair odd
EV -4.06%
Edge -2.34%
Kelly -5.56%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.73

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.26%55.48%55.46%57.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.561.671.681.7364.10%59.80%59.52%57.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Lanus (Visit)

Prediction 17.34%5.77fair odd
EV +0.564%
Edge +0.097%
Kelly +0.118%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 5.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.44%17.39%17.17%19.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.505.195.205.8022.22%19.25%19.23%17.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.20%3.68fair odd
EV -0.713%
Edge -0.195%
Kelly -0.269%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.90%27.13%27.37%29.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.373.403.6534.72%29.67%29.41%27.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Argentinos Juniors (Local): 55.46%; Lanus (Visit): 17.34%; Draw: 27.20%. For Lanus (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.77. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.564%.

Sportsbook Odds (36 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.08%EV -7.38%E -4.42%K -11.02%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.44%EV +0.564%E +0.097%K +0.118%G +0.001%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.48%EV -2.07%E -0.576%K -0.797%G +0.000%4.9%2026-02-20 05:35
BetOnline.ag🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.08%EV -7.38%E -4.42%K -11.02%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.44%EV +0.564%E +0.097%K +0.118%G +0.001%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.48%EV -2.07%E -0.576%K -0.797%G +0.000%4.9%2026-02-20 05:36
Pinnacle🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.05%EV -7.94%E -4.78%K -12.03%G +0.000%5.64I 17.73%NM 16.79%EV -2.21%E -0.392%K -0.476%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.16%EV -1.53%E -0.422%K -0.584%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-20 05:35
DraftKings🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.58%EV -7.38%E -4.42%K -11.02%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.18%EV -4.64%E -0.843%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.25%EV -2.07%E -0.576%K -0.797%G +0.000%5.8%2026-02-21 15:05
Unibet (UK)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.50%EV -5.72%E -3.36%K -8.17%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.15%EV -4.64%E -0.843%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.35%EV -6.15%E -1.78%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-20 08:10
Fanatics🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.13%EV -5.16%E -3.02%K -7.27%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.14%EV -4.64%E -0.843%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.73%EV -7.51%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-20 05:36
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.28%EV -5.72%E -3.36%K -8.17%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.09%EV -4.64%E -0.843%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.64%EV -7.51%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000%6.4%2026-02-20 05:35
BoyleSports🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.16%EV -7.38%E -4.42%K -11.02%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.05%EV -4.64%E -0.843%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.79%EV -4.79%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-20 05:33
FanDuel🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.42%EV -6.27%E -3.71%K -9.09%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.03%EV -4.64%E -0.843%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -7.51%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-21 15:53
BetMGM🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.42%EV -6.27%E -3.71%K -9.09%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.03%EV -4.64%E -0.843%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -7.51%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-20 05:35
Betsson🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.27%EV -6.83%E -4.06%K -10.04%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.84%EV -8.11%E -1.53%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.90%EV -0.713%E -0.195%K -0.269%G +0.000%5.8%2026-02-20 05:35
NordicBet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.27%EV -6.83%E -4.06%K -10.04%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.84%EV -8.11%E -1.53%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.90%EV -0.713%E -0.195%K -0.269%G +0.000%5.8%2026-02-20 05:35
theScore Bet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.41%EV -6.27%E -3.71%K -9.09%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.84%EV -8.97%E -1.71%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.75%EV -4.79%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-20 08:10
PlayUp🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.30%EV -9.60%E -5.89%K -15.24%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.48%EV -8.97%E -1.71%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -4.79%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000%9.0%2026-02-20 05:35
Bet Right🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.91%EV -5.72%E -3.36%K -8.17%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.46%EV -8.97%E -1.71%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.64%EV -12.95%E -4.05%K -5.89%G +0.000%9.1%2026-02-21 04:05
Betclic (FR)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 55.62%EV -12.37%E -7.83%K -21.33%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 16.74%EV -8.97%E -1.71%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 27.64%EV -13.50%E -4.24%K -6.19%G +0.000%13.8%2026-02-20 05:30
Unibet (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.52%EV -4.06%E -2.34%K -5.56%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.14%EV -9.84%E -1.89%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.34%EV -6.15%E -1.78%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-21 02:05
Unibet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.52%EV -4.06%E -2.34%K -5.56%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.14%EV -9.84%E -1.89%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.34%EV -6.15%E -1.78%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-21 02:05
BetRivers🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.67%EV -4.61%E -2.68%K -6.40%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.08%EV -9.84%E -1.89%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.25%EV -6.15%E -1.78%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.4%2026-02-21 02:05
Marathon Bet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.22%EV -4.61%E -2.68%K -6.40%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.94%EV -9.84%E -1.89%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.84%EV -8.87%E -2.65%K -3.78%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-22 02:50
BetAnything🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.74%EV -5.72%E -3.36%K -8.17%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.89%EV -9.84%E -1.89%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.37%EV -7.51%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000%7.5%2026-02-20 15:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.55%EV -5.72%E -3.36%K -8.17%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.18%EV -11.57%E -2.27%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.27%EV -7.51%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-21 02:04
Bovada🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.27%EV -4.61%E -2.68%K -6.40%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.67%EV -13.31%E -2.66%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.06%EV -6.15%E -1.78%K -2.51%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-22 03:29
Betway🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.47%EV -4.06%E -2.34%K -5.56%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.50%EV -13.31%E -2.66%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.03%EV -10.23%E -3.10%K -4.45%G +0.000%8.1%2026-02-21 06:30
SportsBet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.90%EV -5.72%E -3.36%K -8.17%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.33%EV -13.31%E -2.66%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.77%EV -10.23%E -3.10%K -4.45%G +0.000%9.1%2026-02-21 16:10
Virgin Bet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.72%EV -7.94%E -4.78%K -12.03%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.17%EV -13.31%E -2.66%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.11%EV -8.87%E -2.65%K -3.78%G +0.000%10.1%2026-02-21 02:05
LiveScore Bet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.72%EV -7.94%E -4.78%K -12.03%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.17%EV -13.31%E -2.66%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.11%EV -8.87%E -2.65%K -3.78%G +0.000%10.1%2026-02-21 02:05
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.35%EV -7.38%E -4.42%K -11.02%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.15%EV -13.31%E -2.66%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -10.23%E -3.10%K -4.45%G +0.000%10.2%2026-02-21 15:59
Betr (AU)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 53.73%EV -6.83%E -4.06%K -10.04%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.05%EV -13.31%E -2.66%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.21%EV -12.95%E -4.05%K -5.89%G +0.000%10.8%2026-02-21 04:00
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 55.16%EV -12.37%E -7.83%K -21.33%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 17.61%EV -14.17%E -2.86%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.23%EV -12.95%E -4.05%K -5.89%G +0.000%14.7%2026-02-20 08:10
Winamax (DE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.12%EV -10.16%E -6.27%K -16.38%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.22%EV -15.04%E -3.07%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.66%EV -8.87%E -2.65%K -3.78%G +0.000%12.0%2026-02-20 08:10
PMU (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 54.65%EV -13.48%E -8.64%K -24.08%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 17.40%EV -15.04%E -3.07%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 27.95%EV -17.03%E -5.58%K -8.31%G +0.000%17.3%2026-02-21 15:55
Sky Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.00%EV -7.38%E -4.42%K -11.02%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.44%EV -16.77%E -3.49%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.55%EV -15.67%E -5.06%K -7.46%G +0.000%13.0%2026-02-21 15:55
NetBet (FR)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 54.16%EV -10.71%E -6.65%K -17.56%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.16%EV -16.77%E -3.49%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.68%EV -14.31%E -4.54%K -6.66%G +0.000%14.7%2026-02-21 10:51
Winamax (FR)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 54.65%EV -12.37%E -7.83%K -21.33%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.37%EV -18.51%E -3.94%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.98%EV -12.95%E -4.05%K -5.89%G +0.000%15.8%2026-02-20 08:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 51.26%EV -7.38%E -4.42%K -11.02%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.02%EV -21.98%E -4.88%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.72%EV -21.66%E -7.52%K -11.52%G +0.000%16.8%2026-02-21 15:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.56I 64.10%NM 50.75%3.40I 29.41%NM 23.29%3.05I 32.79%NM 25.96%26.3%2026-02-22 06:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.56I 64.10%NM 50.75%3.40I 29.41%NM 23.29%3.05I 32.79%NM 25.96%26.3%2026-02-22 06:00
Smarkets◎1.03I 97.09%NM 63.60%4.20I 23.81%NM 15.60%3.15I 31.75%NM 20.80%52.6%2026-02-21 15:40
Matchbook◎1.58I 63.29%NM 35.23%1.15I 86.96%NM 48.40%3.40I 29.41%NM 16.37%79.7%2026-02-21 07:09
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.56I 64.10%NM 33.52%1.06I 94.34%NM 49.33%3.05I 32.79%NM 17.15%91.2%2026-02-22 06:00