The School of Odds
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Argentinos Juniors v Independiente Rivadavia

Kickoff: 2026-10-25 21:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Argentinos Juniors (Local)

Prediction 46.65%2.14fair odd
EV -3.44%
Edge -1.66%
Kelly -3.21%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.07

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.04%47.01%46.65%49.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.881.971.952.0753.19%50.71%51.28%48.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Independiente Rivadavia (Visit)

Prediction 24.09%4.15fair odd
EV +8.18%
Edge +1.82%
Kelly +2.35%
Growth +0.192%

assuming max odds 4.49

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.17%23.77%24.09%25.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.883.884.4928.57%25.76%25.77%22.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.26%3.42fair odd
EV -4.92%
Edge -1.51%
Kelly -2.19%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.62%29.22%29.26%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.183.203.2533.33%31.43%31.25%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Argentinos Juniors (Local): 46.65%; Independiente Rivadavia (Visit): 24.09%; Draw: 29.26%. For Independiente Rivadavia (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.15. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.49, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.18%.

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.50%EV -10.43%E -5.43%K -11.34%G +0.000%4.49I 22.27%NM 21.17%EV +8.18%E +1.82%K +2.35%G +0.192%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.33%EV -5.21%E -1.61%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-12 06:49
Marathon Bet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.54%EV -12.30%E -6.54%K -13.98%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.17%EV +6.02%E +1.37%K +1.77%G +0.106%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.29%EV -6.97%E -2.19%K -3.19%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-12 06:44
SportsBet🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 47.11%EV -7.17%E -3.60%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.04%EV -6.03%E -1.55%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.85%EV -4.92%E -1.51%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-20 11:55
FanDuel🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.41%EV -9.03%E -4.63%K -9.51%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.70%EV -6.03%E -1.55%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -6.38%E -1.99%K -2.90%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-20 11:55
BetOnline.ag🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 46.03%EV -3.44%E -1.66%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.56%EV -6.51%E -1.68%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.41%EV -5.21%E -1.61%K -2.33%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-20 11:50
LowVig.ag🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 46.03%EV -3.44%E -1.66%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.56%EV -6.51%E -1.68%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.41%EV -5.21%E -1.61%K -2.33%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-20 11:50
Bet Right🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.11%EV -9.03%E -4.63%K -9.51%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -8.44%E -2.22%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.71%EV -6.38%E -1.99%K -2.90%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-20 11:55
betfred_uk🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.96%EV -9.03%E -4.63%K -9.51%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.42%EV -9.65%E -2.57%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -6.38%E -1.99%K -2.90%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-20 11:55
DraftKings🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.04%EV -4.37%E -2.13%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.65%EV -13.26%E -3.68%K -5.10%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.31%EV -7.84%E -2.49%K -3.65%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-20 04:50
Paddy Power🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.07%EV -9.03%E -4.63%K -9.51%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.95%EV -13.26%E -3.68%K -5.10%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.98%EV -9.31%E -3.00%K -4.43%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-21 06:17
Sky Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 45.82%EV -10.90%E -5.71%K -11.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.01%EV -15.67%E -4.48%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.17%EV -12.23%E -4.08%K -6.12%G +0.000%14.3%2026-10-20 11:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.39I 71.94%NM 31.02%1.01I 99.01%NM 42.69%1.64I 60.98%NM 26.29%131.9%2026-10-18 21:49
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.19I 84.03%NM 32.57%1.17I 85.47%NM 33.13%1.13I 88.50%NM 34.30%158.0%2026-10-20 12:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.19I 84.03%NM 32.57%1.17I 85.47%NM 33.13%1.13I 88.50%NM 34.30%158.0%2026-10-20 12:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.17I 85.47%NM 32.64%1.17I 85.47%NM 32.64%1.10I 90.91%NM 34.72%161.8%2026-10-20 12:10