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Argentinos Juniors v Independiente Rivadavia

Kickoff: 2026-10-27 22:00 UTC

Final: Argentinos Juniors 1–0 Independiente Rivadavia

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

37 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Argentinos Juniors (Local)

Prediction 45.61%2.19fair odd
EV -2.40%
Edge -1.12%
Kelly -2.11%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.14

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.29%45.60%45.67%47.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.852.032.022.1454.05%49.29%49.50%46.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Independiente Rivadavia (Visit)

Prediction 24.31%4.11fair odd
EV +5.52%
Edge +1.27%
Kelly +1.65%
Growth +0.091%

assuming max odds 4.34

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.13%24.36%24.30%25.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.793.804.3429.41%26.40%26.32%23.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.08%3.32fair odd
EV -2.23%
Edge -0.687%
Kelly -0.993%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.76%30.05%30.03%31.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.093.103.2534.72%32.40%32.26%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Argentinos Juniors (Local): 45.61%; Independiente Rivadavia (Visit): 24.31%; Draw: 30.08%. For Independiente Rivadavia (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.11. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.34, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.52%.

Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.01I 49.75%NM 47.77%EV -8.33%E -4.15%K -8.25%G +0.000%4.34I 23.04%NM 22.13%EV +5.52%E +1.27%K +1.65%G +0.091%3.19I 31.35%NM 30.10%EV -4.04%E -1.27%K -1.84%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-27 21:54
Pinnacle🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 45.16%EV -2.40%E -1.12%K -2.11%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.16%EV -2.75%E -0.687%K -0.917%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.68%EV -5.24%E -1.66%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-27 21:50
FanDuel🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.00%EV -6.51%E -3.17%K -6.20%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.58%EV -2.75%E -0.687%K -0.917%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -6.75%E -2.18%K -3.21%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-27 21:50
SportsBet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -6.51%E -3.17%K -6.20%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -2.75%E -0.687%K -0.917%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.77%EV -8.25%E -2.71%K -4.02%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-27 21:50
BetOnline.ag🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 45.10%EV -2.40%E -1.12%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 24.25%EV -3.24%E -0.813%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.64%EV -5.24%E -1.66%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-27 21:40
LowVig.ag🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 45.10%EV -2.40%E -1.12%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 24.25%EV -3.24%E -0.813%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.64%EV -5.24%E -1.66%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-27 21:40
BetAnything🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 45.10%EV -2.40%E -1.12%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 24.25%EV -3.24%E -0.813%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.64%EV -5.24%E -1.66%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-27 21:40
Betsson🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.67%EV -7.88%E -3.90%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.87%EV -3.97%E -1.00%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.46%EV -3.74%E -1.17%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-27 21:55
NordicBet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.67%EV -7.88%E -3.90%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.87%EV -3.97%E -1.00%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.46%EV -3.74%E -1.17%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-27 21:55
Codere (IT)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.37%EV -5.14%E -2.47%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.20%EV -5.18%E -1.33%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.44%EV -6.75%E -2.18%K -3.21%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-27 07:00
Unibet (UK)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.37%EV -5.14%E -2.47%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.20%EV -5.18%E -1.33%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.44%EV -6.75%E -2.18%K -3.21%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-27 06:57
DraftKings🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.95%EV -6.51%E -3.17%K -6.20%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.15%EV -5.18%E -1.33%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.90%EV -5.24%E -1.66%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-27 21:54
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.40%EV -8.79%E -4.39%K -8.79%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.28%EV -5.18%E -1.33%K -1.79%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.31%EV -12.76%E -4.40%K -6.72%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-27 21:50
Marathon Bet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.01%EV -7.88%E -3.90%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 24.20%EV -6.64%E -1.73%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.79%EV -6.14%E -1.97%K -2.90%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-26 11:25
Fanatics🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.87%EV -6.51%E -3.17%K -6.20%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -7.61%E -2.00%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -3.74%E -1.17%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-25 02:10
theScore Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.62%EV -4.23%E -2.01%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.66%EV -7.61%E -2.00%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.72%EV -8.25%E -2.71%K -4.02%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-27 07:05
Bovada🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.44%EV -6.51%E -3.17%K -6.20%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.51%EV -7.61%E -2.00%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -6.75%E -2.18%K -3.21%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-27 21:53
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.44%EV -6.51%E -3.17%K -6.20%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.51%EV -7.61%E -2.00%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -6.75%E -2.18%K -3.21%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-27 21:55
Betway🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.05%EV -8.79%E -4.39%K -8.79%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.24%EV -7.61%E -2.00%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.71%EV -6.75%E -2.18%K -3.21%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-27 21:54
Paddy Power🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.13%EV -8.79%E -4.39%K -8.79%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.75%EV -7.61%E -2.00%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.12%EV -12.76%E -4.40%K -6.72%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-27 21:50
BetMGM🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.29%EV -6.51%E -3.17%K -6.20%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.76%EV -8.83%E -2.35%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.95%EV -6.75%E -2.18%K -3.21%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-27 21:55
PlayUp🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.66%EV -7.88%E -3.90%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.59%EV -8.83%E -2.35%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -6.75%E -2.18%K -3.21%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-27 21:55
BoyleSports🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.90%EV -8.79%E -4.39%K -8.79%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.48%EV -8.83%E -2.35%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.62%EV -6.75%E -2.18%K -3.21%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-27 05:55
Sky Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.98%EV -8.79%E -4.39%K -8.79%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.99%EV -8.83%E -2.35%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.02%EV -12.76%E -4.40%K -6.72%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-27 21:54
Unibet (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -6.51%E -3.17%K -6.20%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.36%EV -10.04%E -2.71%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.87%EV -2.23%E -0.687%K -0.993%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-27 21:54
Unibet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -6.51%E -3.17%K -6.20%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.36%EV -10.04%E -2.71%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.87%EV -2.23%E -0.687%K -0.993%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-27 21:55
BetRivers🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.56%EV -7.88%E -3.90%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.22%EV -11.26%E -3.08%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.22%EV -5.24%E -1.66%K -2.44%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-27 21:40
Winamax (DE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.38%EV -8.79%E -4.39%K -8.79%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.86%EV -11.26%E -3.08%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.76%EV -8.25%E -2.71%K -4.02%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-27 06:58
NetBet (FR)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.55%EV -11.07%E -5.68%K -11.65%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.34%EV -11.26%E -3.08%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.11%EV -11.26%E -3.82%K -5.77%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-27 21:45
Unibet (FR)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 46.62%EV -15.63%E -8.45%K -18.39%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.63%EV -11.26%E -3.08%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.74%EV -12.76%E -4.40%K -6.72%G +0.000%15.9%2026-10-27 21:40
Betclic (FR)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 45.42%EV -11.98%E -6.21%K -12.88%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 24.15%EV -11.75%E -3.24%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.44%EV -13.36%E -4.64%K -7.11%G +0.000%14.1%2026-10-27 21:39
Bet Right🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -6.51%E -3.17%K -6.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -12.47%E -3.47%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -6.75%E -2.18%K -3.21%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-27 21:55
Winamax (FR)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 45.25%EV -9.70%E -4.90%K -9.90%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.89%EV -12.47%E -3.47%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.86%EV -9.75%E -3.25%K -4.88%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-27 07:00
Betr (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.29%EV -6.51%E -3.17%K -6.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.94%EV -14.91%E -4.26%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.77%EV -8.25%E -2.71%K -4.02%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-27 21:55
LiveScore Bet🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 45.49%EV -10.16%E -5.16%K -10.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.60%EV -14.91%E -4.26%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.91%EV -6.75%E -2.18%K -3.21%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-27 21:54
Virgin Bet🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 45.49%EV -10.16%E -5.16%K -10.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.60%EV -14.91%E -4.26%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.91%EV -6.75%E -2.18%K -3.21%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-27 21:54
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 45.45%EV -11.98%E -6.21%K -12.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.80%EV -17.34%E -5.10%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.76%EV -8.25%E -2.71%K -4.02%G +0.000%14.0%2026-10-27 21:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.14I 46.73%NM 46.38%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.08%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.54%0.8%2026-10-27 21:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.14I 46.73%NM 46.38%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.08%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.54%0.8%2026-10-27 21:55
Kalshi◎2.17I 46.08%NM 45.62%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.74%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.65%1.0%2026-10-27 21:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.14I 46.73%NM 46.16%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.97%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.87%1.2%2026-10-27 21:55
Smarkets◎2.14I 46.73%NM 46.16%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.97%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.87%1.2%2026-10-27 21:50

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