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Argentinos Juniors v Independiente

2026-11-20 19:00 UTC — Primera División - Argentina

Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Argentinos Juniors (Local)

Prediction 48.72%2.05fair odd
EV -3.54%
Edge -1.79%
Kelly -3.61%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.98

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.15%48.72%48.72%50.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.891.881.9855.56%53.00%53.19%50.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Independiente (Visit)

Prediction 21.98%4.55fair odd
EV -0.201%
Edge -0.044%
Kelly -0.057%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.54

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.93%21.98%21.98%22.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.104.304.274.5424.39%23.24%23.42%22.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.30%3.41fair odd
EV -2.43%
Edge -0.729%
Kelly -1.04%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.53%29.30%29.30%29.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.203.233.3332.79%31.22%30.96%30.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Argentinos Juniors (Local): 48.72%; Independiente (Visit): 21.98%; Draw: 29.30%. For Independiente (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.55. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 4.54, with an expected value of -0.201%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 48.15%EV -3.54%E -1.79%K -3.61%G +0.000%4.27I 23.42%NM 22.33%EV -6.14%E -1.44%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.52%EV -5.36%E -1.66%K -2.40%G +0.000%4.9%2026-11-09 11:20
1xBet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.54%EV -8.41%E -4.47%K -9.56%G +0.000%4.54I 22.03%NM 20.93%EV -0.201%E -0.044%K -0.057%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 28.53%EV -2.43%E -0.729%K -1.04%G +0.000%5.2%2026-11-09 10:24
NetBet (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.28%EV -12.31%E -6.84%K -15.39%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.64%EV -9.87%E -2.41%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.08%EV -10.63%E -3.49%K -5.19%G +0.000%12.7%2026-11-09 11:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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