The School of Odds
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Aldosivi Mar del Plata v Sarmiento de Junin

Kickoff: 2026-10-11 16:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Aldosivi Mar del Plata (Local)

Prediction 33.38%3.00fair odd
EV -3.54%
Edge -1.22%
Kelly -1.87%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.89

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.85%33.36%33.42%34.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.722.752.8939.22%36.74%36.36%34.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sarmiento de Junin (Visit)

Prediction 36.14%2.77fair odd
EV -3.87%
Edge -1.46%
Kelly -2.33%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.66

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.56%36.10%36.16%36.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.522.552.6642.55%39.62%39.22%37.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.48%3.28fair odd
EV -3.98%
Edge -1.26%
Kelly -1.85%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.58%30.54%30.42%31.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.013.003.1535.71%33.24%33.33%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Aldosivi Mar del Plata (Local): 33.38%; Sarmiento de Junin (Visit): 36.14%; Draw: 30.48%. For Aldosivi Mar del Plata (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.00. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.89, with an expected value of -3.54%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.89I 34.60%NM 32.86%EV -3.54%E -1.22%K -1.87%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 35.70%EV -3.87%E -1.46%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 31.44%EV -7.94%E -2.63%K -3.93%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-28 08:04
Fanatics🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.16%EV -4.87%E -1.71%K -2.63%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.35%EV -6.04%E -2.32%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.50%E -1.78%K -2.62%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-28 04:09
Marathon Bet🎯2.83I 35.34%NM 32.85%EV -5.54%E -1.96%K -3.03%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.75%EV -6.04%E -2.32%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 31.40%EV -9.77%E -3.30%K -4.99%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-28 08:33
NordicBet🎯2.82I 35.46%NM 33.49%EV -5.87%E -2.08%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.05%EV -5.32%E -2.03%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.46%EV -5.50%E -1.78%K -2.62%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-23 03:45
Betsson🎯2.82I 35.46%NM 33.49%EV -5.87%E -2.08%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.05%EV -5.32%E -2.03%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.46%EV -5.50%E -1.78%K -2.62%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-23 03:44
Bovada🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.12%EV -8.21%E -2.99%K -4.69%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.09%EV -6.04%E -2.32%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.79%EV -3.98%E -1.26%K -1.85%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-21 06:14
SportsBet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.88%EV -8.21%E -2.99%K -4.69%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.54%EV -7.85%E -3.08%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.58%EV -3.98%E -1.26%K -1.85%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-21 01:59
FanDuel🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.72%EV -8.21%E -2.99%K -4.69%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.37%EV -7.85%E -3.08%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.91%EV -5.50%E -1.78%K -2.62%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-21 01:59
Codere (IT)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.62%EV -8.21%E -2.99%K -4.69%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.56%EV -6.04%E -2.32%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.82%EV -8.55%E -2.85%K -4.28%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-21 01:29
BoyleSports🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.56%EV -9.88%E -3.66%K -5.81%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.24%EV -9.65%E -3.86%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -8.55%E -2.85%K -4.28%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-21 06:53
Betclic (FR)🎯2.67I 37.45%NM 33.12%EV -10.88%E -4.07%K -6.51%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 36.39%EV -12.18%E -5.01%K -8.52%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.49%EV -11.60%E -4.00%K -6.11%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-26 20:05
Paddy Power🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.23%EV -12.55%E -4.79%K -7.75%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.87%EV -9.65%E -3.86%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.90%EV -8.55%E -2.85%K -4.28%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-21 01:59
Winamax (DE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 33.73%EV -13.22%E -5.08%K -8.26%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.54%EV -13.27%E -5.53%K -9.48%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.73%EV -10.08%E -3.42%K -5.17%G +0.000%14.0%2026-09-21 01:29
Sky Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 33.56%EV -13.22%E -5.08%K -8.26%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.35%EV -13.27%E -5.53%K -9.48%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.09%EV -11.60%E -4.00%K -6.11%G +0.000%14.6%2026-09-21 01:59
Unibet (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 32.95%EV -13.22%E -5.08%K -8.26%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 36.45%EV -15.07%E -6.41%K -11.17%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.60%EV -14.65%E -5.23%K -8.14%G +0.000%16.7%2026-09-26 20:10
Winamax (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 33.99%EV -14.89%E -5.84%K -9.60%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.12%EV -13.27%E -5.53%K -9.48%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.89%EV -11.60%E -4.00%K -6.11%G +0.000%15.4%2026-09-21 01:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.17I 85.47%NM 32.84%1.17I 85.47%NM 32.84%1.12I 89.29%NM 34.31%160.2%2026-09-25 10:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.17I 85.47%NM 32.84%1.17I 85.47%NM 32.84%1.12I 89.29%NM 34.31%160.2%2026-09-26 11:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.17I 85.47%NM 32.84%1.17I 85.47%NM 32.84%1.12I 89.29%NM 34.31%160.2%2026-09-26 12:15