The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Aldosivi Mar del Plata v Sarmiento de Junin

Kickoff: 2026-10-09 17:30 UTC

Final: Aldosivi Mar del Plata 1–3 Sarmiento de Junin

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

33 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Aldosivi Mar del Plata (Local)

Prediction 37.50%2.67fair odd
EV -0.614%
Edge -0.232%
Kelly -0.372%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.19%37.39%37.49%38.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.472.502.6545.45%40.44%40.00%37.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sarmiento de Junin (Visit)

Prediction 31.36%3.19fair odd
EV -4.05%
Edge -1.32%
Kelly -1.96%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.06

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.39%31.49%31.25%34.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.882.903.0638.46%34.71%34.48%32.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 31.14%3.21fair odd
EV -3.47%
Edge -1.12%
Kelly -1.65%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.11%31.11%31.26%31.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.973.003.1036.36%33.69%33.33%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Aldosivi Mar del Plata (Local): 37.50%; Sarmiento de Junin (Visit): 31.36%; Draw: 31.14%. For Aldosivi Mar del Plata (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.67. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.65, with an expected value of -0.614%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (33 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.52%EV -0.614%E -0.232%K -0.372%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.62%EV -12.20%E -4.36%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.86%EV -5.03%E -1.65%K -2.45%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-04 18:21
Unibet (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.52%EV -0.614%E -0.232%K -0.372%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.62%EV -12.20%E -4.36%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.86%EV -5.03%E -1.65%K -2.45%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-04 18:21
BetRivers🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.34%EV -2.49%E -0.957%K -1.56%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.03%EV -15.34%E -5.68%K -9.02%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.63%EV -6.58%E -2.19%K -3.29%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-04 18:21
1xBet🎯2.57I 38.91%NM 36.93%EV -3.61%E -1.41%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.01I 33.22%NM 31.53%EV -5.62%E -1.87%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.01I 33.22%NM 31.53%EV -6.27%E -2.08%K -3.12%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-05 07:49
Pinnacle🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.38%EV -4.36%E -1.71%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 31.15%EV -4.05%E -1.32%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 31.46%EV -5.65%E -1.86%K -2.78%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-04 19:50
LowVig.ag🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -4.36%E -1.71%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 31.12%EV -4.05%E -1.32%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 31.53%EV -5.96%E -1.97%K -2.95%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-04 23:55
BetOnline.ag🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -4.36%E -1.71%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 31.12%EV -4.05%E -1.32%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 31.53%EV -5.96%E -1.97%K -2.95%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-04 23:55
LiveScore Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.19%EV -4.36%E -1.71%K -2.82%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.86%EV -16.90%E -6.38%K -10.24%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.94%EV -9.70%E -3.34%K -5.10%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-04 18:21
Virgin Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.19%EV -4.36%E -1.71%K -2.82%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.86%EV -16.90%E -6.38%K -10.24%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.94%EV -9.70%E -3.34%K -5.10%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-04 18:20
NordicBet🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 37.49%EV -5.49%E -2.18%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.03%EV -7.50%E -2.54%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.48%EV -3.47%E -1.12%K -1.65%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-04 19:40
Betsson🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 37.49%EV -5.49%E -2.18%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.03%EV -7.50%E -2.54%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.48%EV -3.47%E -1.12%K -1.65%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-04 19:40
Fanatics🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.88%EV -6.24%E -2.50%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.57%EV -5.93%E -1.98%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.55%EV -3.47%E -1.12%K -1.65%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-05 05:10
Unibet (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.24%E -2.50%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -5.93%E -1.98%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -6.58%E -2.19%K -3.29%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-04 18:15
Bovada🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.30%EV -6.24%E -2.50%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.61%EV -7.50%E -2.54%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.09%EV -6.58%E -2.19%K -3.29%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-05 05:31
BetMGM🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.10%EV -6.24%E -2.50%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.98%EV -9.06%E -3.13%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.92%EV -6.58%E -2.19%K -3.29%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-05 05:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.10%EV -6.24%E -2.50%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.98%EV -9.06%E -3.13%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.92%EV -6.58%E -2.19%K -3.29%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-05 05:10
BoyleSports🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -6.24%E -2.50%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -9.06%E -3.13%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -9.70%E -3.34%K -5.10%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-04 19:44
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 35.41%EV -6.99%E -2.82%K -4.72%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.78%EV -18.47%E -7.10%K -11.54%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.81%EV -11.25%E -3.95%K -6.08%G +0.000%13.9%2026-10-04 18:21
Codere (IT)🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 37.98%EV -7.36%E -2.98%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.76%EV -4.36%E -1.43%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.27%EV -6.58%E -2.19%K -3.29%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-04 18:20
DraftKings🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.78%EV -8.11%E -3.31%K -5.60%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -5.93%E -1.98%K -2.96%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.37%EV -8.14%E -2.76%K -4.17%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-04 19:50
SportsBet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.76%EV -8.11%E -3.31%K -5.60%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.90%EV -9.06%E -3.13%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.33%EV -5.03%E -1.65%K -2.45%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-05 05:30
FanDuel🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.57%EV -8.11%E -3.31%K -5.60%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.74%EV -9.06%E -3.13%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.68%EV -6.58%E -2.19%K -3.29%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-05 05:34
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.49%EV -8.11%E -3.31%K -5.60%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.89%EV -9.69%E -3.37%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.62%EV -6.58%E -2.19%K -3.29%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-05 07:10
Bet Right🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.36%EV -8.11%E -3.31%K -5.60%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.12%EV -10.63%E -3.73%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -6.58%E -2.19%K -3.29%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-05 05:29
theScore Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -9.99%E -4.16%K -7.14%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -5.93%E -1.98%K -2.96%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -9.70%E -3.34%K -5.10%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-04 18:15
betfred_uk🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.97%EV -9.99%E -4.16%K -7.14%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.65%EV -9.69%E -3.37%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.38%EV -6.58%E -2.19%K -3.29%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-05 05:29
Paddy Power🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.63%EV -9.99%E -4.16%K -7.14%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.26%EV -12.20%E -4.36%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.11%EV -6.58%E -2.19%K -3.29%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-05 05:29
Betclic (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.46%EV -9.99%E -4.16%K -7.14%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.22%EV -9.69%E -3.37%K -5.16%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.32%EV -10.63%E -3.70%K -5.69%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-05 07:55
NetBet (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.25%EV -9.99%E -4.16%K -7.14%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.37%EV -10.63%E -3.73%K -5.75%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.37%EV -11.25%E -3.95%K -6.08%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-05 07:55
Winamax (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.95%EV -11.86%E -5.05%K -8.79%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.29%EV -10.63%E -3.73%K -5.75%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.75%EV -9.70%E -3.34%K -5.10%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-04 18:19
Winamax (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.05%EV -13.74%E -5.97%K -10.57%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.25%EV -12.20%E -4.36%K -6.78%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.70%EV -11.25%E -3.95%K -6.08%G +0.000%14.3%2026-10-04 18:15
Sky Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 37.41%EV -13.74%E -5.97%K -10.57%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 31.87%EV -15.34%E -5.68%K -9.02%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.73%EV -12.81%E -4.58%K -7.12%G +0.000%16.2%2026-10-05 05:49
Unibet (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 38.67%EV -17.49%E -7.95%K -14.58%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.39%EV -12.20%E -4.36%K -6.78%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 30.94%EV -14.37%E -5.22%K -8.21%G +0.000%17.5%2026-10-04 22:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.63I 38.02%NM 37.23%3.12I 32.05%NM 31.38%3.12I 32.05%NM 31.38%2.1%2026-10-05 13:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.60I 38.46%NM 36.88%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.94%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.18%4.3%2026-10-05 15:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.60I 38.46%NM 36.88%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.94%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.18%4.3%2026-10-05 15:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.60I 38.46%NM 36.88%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.94%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.18%4.3%2026-10-05 15:15
Smarkets◎2.58I 38.76%NM 36.64%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.99%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.37%5.8%2026-10-05 15:15