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Aldosivi Mar del Plata v Estudiantes de Río Cuarto

Kickoff: 2026-04-05 20:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Aldosivi Mar del Plata (Local)

Prediction 45.18%2.21fair odd
EV -4.22%
Edge -1.99%
Kelly -3.77%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.12

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.50%45.13%45.01%45.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.852.012.002.1254.05%49.77%50.00%47.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Estudiantes de Río Cuarto (Visit)

Prediction 23.47%4.26fair odd
EV -6.11%
Edge -1.53%
Kelly -2.04%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.69%23.75%23.58%25.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.453.783.804.0028.99%26.47%26.32%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 31.35%3.19fair odd
EV -1.26%
Edge -0.399%
Kelly -0.584%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.86%31.13%31.41%31.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.912.963.1537.04%34.32%33.78%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Aldosivi Mar del Plata (Local): 45.18%; Estudiantes de Río Cuarto (Visit): 23.47%; Draw: 31.35%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.19. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.15, with an expected value of -1.26%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Betsson🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.37%EV -4.22%E -1.99%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.77%EV -14.32%E -3.92%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.86%EV -1.26%E -0.399%K -0.584%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-27 11:49
NordicBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.37%EV -4.22%E -1.99%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.77%EV -14.32%E -3.92%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.86%EV -1.26%E -0.399%K -0.584%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-27 11:50
Fanatics🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.94%EV -5.12%E -2.44%K -4.66%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -6.11%E -1.53%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.46%EV -5.96%E -1.99%K -2.98%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-23 08:24
1xBet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.59%EV -5.12%E -2.44%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.94I 25.38%NM 23.77%EV -7.51%E -1.91%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 31.64%EV -7.21%E -2.44%K -3.68%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-27 11:50
Marathon Bet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.83%EV -6.03%E -2.90%K -5.58%G +0.000%3.94I 25.38%NM 23.67%EV -7.51%E -1.91%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 31.50%EV -7.21%E -2.44%K -3.68%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-27 11:44
Bovada🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.54%EV -7.38%E -3.60%K -7.03%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -6.11%E -1.53%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -5.96%E -1.99%K -2.98%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-27 10:52
SportsBet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.27%EV -7.38%E -3.60%K -7.03%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.80%EV -8.45%E -2.17%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.93%EV -5.96%E -1.99%K -2.98%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-25 03:35
FanDuel🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.27%EV -7.38%E -3.60%K -7.03%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.80%EV -8.45%E -2.17%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.93%EV -5.96%E -1.99%K -2.98%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-26 20:03
Betway🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.67%EV -9.64%E -4.82%K -9.64%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.83%EV -6.11%E -1.53%K -2.04%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -9.09%E -3.14%K -4.79%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-27 03:33
BoyleSports🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.67%EV -9.64%E -4.82%K -9.64%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.83%EV -6.11%E -1.53%K -2.04%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -9.09%E -3.14%K -4.79%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-23 08:24
Paddy Power🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.45%EV -9.64%E -4.82%K -9.64%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -11.97%E -3.19%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.30%EV -5.96%E -1.99%K -2.98%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-25 03:33
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.50%EV -9.64%E -4.82%K -9.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.86%EV -17.84%E -5.10%K -7.14%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.64%EV -13.79%E -5.02%K -7.88%G +0.000%14.9%2026-03-26 20:05
Sky Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 44.37%EV -11.90%E -6.10%K -12.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.72%EV -17.84%E -5.10%K -7.14%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.90%EV -12.23%E -4.37%K -6.79%G +0.000%15.6%2026-03-16 09:19
Winamax (DE)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 45.36%EV -13.26%E -6.90%K -14.41%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.54%EV -13.15%E -3.55%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.10%EV -12.23%E -4.37%K -6.79%G +0.000%14.8%2026-03-17 04:40
Betclic (FR)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 45.62%EV -14.61%E -7.73%K -16.42%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.69%EV -10.80%E -2.84%K -3.86%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 31.70%EV -14.74%E -5.42%K -8.57%G +0.000%16.0%2026-03-22 17:59
Winamax (FR)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 44.93%EV -15.06%E -8.01%K -17.12%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 23.79%EV -16.67%E -4.70%K -6.54%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 31.28%EV -15.36%E -5.69%K -9.04%G +0.000%18.4%2026-03-17 04:40
PMU (FR)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 45.27%EV -16.42%E -8.87%K -19.32%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 24.28%EV -19.02%E -5.51%K -7.76%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 30.45%EV -13.79%E -5.02%K -7.88%G +0.000%19.4%2026-03-25 03:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 33.23%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.23%1.03I 97.09%NM 33.55%189.4%2026-03-22 15:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 33.23%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.23%1.03I 97.09%NM 33.55%189.4%2026-03-22 15:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 33.23%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.23%1.03I 97.09%NM 33.55%189.4%2026-03-22 15:29