The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Aldosivi Mar del Plata v Estudiantes de Río Cuarto

Kickoff: 2026-04-04 16:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

34 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Aldosivi Mar del Plata (Local)

Prediction 41.54%2.41fair odd
EV -3.22%
Edge -1.38%
Kelly -2.42%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.96%41.78%41.53%44.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.022.192.202.3349.50%45.61%45.45%42.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Estudiantes de Río Cuarto (Visit)

Prediction 24.09%4.15fair odd
EV +1.16%
Edge +0.276%
Kelly +0.362%
Growth +0.004%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.35%24.00%24.07%24.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.553.903.904.2028.17%25.64%25.64%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 34.38%2.91fair odd
EV -0.988%
Edge -0.343%
Kelly -0.526%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.71%34.22%34.40%34.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.732.732.8840.00%36.69%36.70%34.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Aldosivi Mar del Plata (Local): 41.54%; Estudiantes de Río Cuarto (Visit): 24.09%; Draw: 34.38%. For Estudiantes de Río Cuarto (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.15. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.16%.

Sportsbook Odds (34 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.86%EV -12.77%E -6.08%K -11.61%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.43%EV +1.16%E +0.276%K +0.362%G +0.004%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -0.988%E -0.343%K -0.526%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-04 16:14
Unibet (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.86%EV -12.77%E -6.08%K -11.61%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.43%EV +1.16%E +0.276%K +0.362%G +0.004%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -0.988%E -0.343%K -0.526%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-04 16:14
BetRivers🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.86%EV -12.77%E -6.08%K -11.61%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.43%EV +1.16%E +0.276%K +0.362%G +0.004%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -0.988%E -0.343%K -0.526%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-04 16:15
Virgin Bet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 44.92%EV -15.27%E -7.48%K -14.68%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.35%EV -1.25%E -0.305%K -0.404%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.73%EV -3.74%E -1.34%K -2.08%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-04 16:15
LiveScore Bet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 44.92%EV -15.27%E -7.48%K -14.68%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.35%EV -1.25%E -0.305%K -0.404%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.73%EV -3.74%E -1.34%K -2.08%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-04 16:15
Pinnacle🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 41.54%EV -3.22%E -1.38%K -2.42%G +0.000%4.03I 24.81%NM 24.02%EV -2.94%E -0.729%K -0.969%G +0.000%2.81I 35.59%NM 34.44%EV -3.39%E -1.21%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-04 16:15
LowVig.ag🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.54%E -2.91%K -5.24%G +0.000%4.02I 24.88%NM 23.68%EV -3.18%E -0.791%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.00%EV -3.74%E -1.34%K -2.08%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-04 11:29
BetOnline.ag🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.54%E -2.91%K -5.24%G +0.000%4.02I 24.88%NM 23.68%EV -3.18%E -0.791%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.00%EV -3.74%E -1.34%K -2.08%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-04 11:29
Fanatics🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.47%EV -4.47%E -1.94%K -3.44%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.85%EV -3.66%E -0.915%K -1.22%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.68%EV -5.46%E -1.98%K -3.12%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-04 16:09
FanDuel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.81%EV -8.62%E -3.92%K -7.18%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.55%EV -3.66%E -0.915%K -1.22%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.64%EV -3.74%E -1.34%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-04 15:14
SportsBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.55%EV -8.62%E -3.92%K -7.18%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -3.66%E -0.915%K -1.22%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.04%EV -5.46%E -1.98%K -3.12%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-04 15:14
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 44.65%EV -16.10%E -7.97%K -15.78%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.55%EV -3.66%E -0.915%K -1.22%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.80%EV -5.46%E -1.98%K -3.12%G +0.000%10.9%2026-04-04 16:14
BetAnything🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.69%EV -8.62%E -3.92%K -7.18%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.77%EV -4.86%E -1.23%K -1.65%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.54%EV -3.74%E -1.34%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-04 11:59
1xBet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.11%EV -5.30%E -2.32%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 23.91%EV -5.59%E -1.43%K -1.91%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 34.98%EV -7.86%E -2.93%K -4.68%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-04 16:14
DraftKings🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.22%EV -4.47%E -1.94%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.31%EV -6.07%E -1.56%K -2.09%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.47%EV -5.46%E -1.98%K -3.12%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-04 16:14
Unibet (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.96%EV -4.47%E -1.94%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.15%EV -6.07%E -1.56%K -2.09%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.89%EV -7.18%E -2.66%K -4.22%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-04 16:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.75%EV -6.54%E -2.91%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.09%EV -6.07%E -1.56%K -2.09%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.16%EV -5.46%E -1.98%K -3.12%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-04 11:19
Betsson🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.75%EV -6.54%E -2.91%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.09%EV -6.07%E -1.56%K -2.09%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.16%EV -5.46%E -1.98%K -3.12%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-04 16:10
NordicBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.75%EV -6.54%E -2.91%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.09%EV -6.07%E -1.56%K -2.09%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.16%EV -5.46%E -1.98%K -3.12%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-04 16:10
theScore Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.49%EV -6.54%E -2.91%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.94%EV -6.07%E -1.56%K -2.09%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.57%EV -7.18%E -2.66%K -4.22%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-04 16:14
Marathon Bet🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 41.28%EV -6.13%E -2.71%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.92%EV -6.07%E -1.56%K -2.09%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 34.81%EV -7.86%E -2.93%K -4.68%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-04 16:10
Bet Right🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.47%EV -10.70%E -4.98%K -9.30%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.72%EV -7.27%E -1.89%K -2.55%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.82%EV -7.18%E -2.66%K -4.22%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-04 15:14
BoyleSports🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.23%EV -6.54%E -2.91%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.41%EV -8.48%E -2.23%K -3.03%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.36%EV -7.18%E -2.66%K -4.22%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-04 16:09
BetMGM🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.23%EV -6.54%E -2.91%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.41%EV -8.48%E -2.23%K -3.03%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.36%EV -7.18%E -2.66%K -4.22%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-04 15:00
Betr (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.07%EV -10.70%E -4.98%K -9.30%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.80%EV -8.48%E -2.23%K -3.03%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.13%EV -8.90%E -3.36%K -5.39%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-04 15:14
Paddy Power🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.90%EV -10.70%E -4.98%K -9.30%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.71%EV -8.48%E -2.23%K -3.03%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.39%EV -9.93%E -3.79%K -6.13%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-04 15:14
Betclic (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.35%EV -8.62%E -3.92%K -7.18%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 24.06%EV -8.96%E -2.37%K -3.22%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.59%EV -9.58%E -3.64%K -5.88%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-04 16:17
Betway🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -6.54%E -2.91%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.66%EV -9.68%E -2.58%K -3.52%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.25%EV -7.18%E -2.66%K -4.22%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-04 16:14
PlayUp🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -6.54%E -2.91%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.66%EV -9.68%E -2.58%K -3.52%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.25%EV -7.18%E -2.66%K -4.22%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-04 16:10
Sky Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.83%EV -10.70%E -4.98%K -9.30%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.98%EV -9.68%E -2.58%K -3.52%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.19%EV -9.58%E -3.64%K -5.88%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-04 15:15
Winamax (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.50%EV -8.62%E -3.92%K -7.18%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.68%EV -10.89%E -2.94%K -4.03%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.82%EV -7.18%E -2.66%K -4.22%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-04 16:14
NetBet (FR)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 42.15%EV -14.02%E -6.77%K -13.10%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.90%EV -12.09%E -3.31%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 33.95%EV -11.65%E -4.53%K -7.42%G +0.000%14.6%2026-04-04 16:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.27%EV -12.77%E -6.08%K -11.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.07%EV -13.29%E -3.69%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.66%EV -14.05%E -5.62%K -9.37%G +0.000%15.4%2026-04-04 15:15
Winamax (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.68%EV -12.77%E -6.08%K -11.61%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.66%EV -14.50%E -4.08%K -5.69%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.66%EV -10.61%E -4.08%K -6.63%G +0.000%14.2%2026-04-04 16:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.62%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.75%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.63%1.0%2026-04-04 16:09
Smarkets◎2.40I 41.67%NM 40.94%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.97%2.80I 35.71%NM 35.09%1.8%2026-04-04 16:09
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.27%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.39%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.34%1.8%2026-04-04 16:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.27%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.39%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.34%1.8%2026-04-04 16:19
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.27%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.39%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.34%1.8%2026-04-04 16:19
Matchbook◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.27%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.39%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.34%1.8%2026-04-04 16:20