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Aldosivi Mar del Plata v CA Tigre BA

2026-08-15 17:30 UTC — Primera División - Argentina

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Aldosivi Mar del Plata (Local)

Prediction 33.33%3.00fair odd
EV -3.02%
Edge -1.04%
Kelly -1.58%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.64%33.33%33.33%33.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.782.802.9138.46%36.01%35.71%34.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

CA Tigre BA (Visit)

Prediction 32.74%3.05fair odd
EV -6.69%
Edge -2.35%
Kelly -3.61%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.59%32.74%32.74%33.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.632.792.822.8538.02%35.89%35.46%35.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 33.93%2.95fair odd
EV -4.99%
Edge -1.78%
Kelly -2.77%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.46%33.93%33.93%34.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.712.752.8038.46%36.88%36.36%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Aldosivi Mar del Plata (Local): 33.33%; CA Tigre BA (Visit): 32.74%; Draw: 33.93%. For Aldosivi Mar del Plata (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.00. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.91, with an expected value of -3.02%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet2.91I 34.36%NM 32.64%EV -3.02%E -1.04%K -1.58%G +0.000%2.84I 35.21%NM 33.44%EV -7.01%E -2.47%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.92%EV -4.99%E -1.78%K -2.77%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-02 19:09
Bovada2.85I 35.09%NM 32.74%EV -5.02%E -1.76%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -8.32%E -2.97%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.93%EV -6.69%E -2.43%K -3.82%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-02 23:09
SportsBet2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -6.69%E -2.39%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.74%EV -6.69%E -2.35%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.93%EV -6.69%E -2.43%K -3.82%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-02 18:59
FanDuel2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -6.69%E -2.39%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.74%EV -6.69%E -2.35%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.93%EV -6.69%E -2.43%K -3.82%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-02 19:05
Paddy Power2.70I 37.04%NM 33.20%EV -10.02%E -3.71%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.59%EV -9.96%E -3.62%K -5.69%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.21%EV -11.10%E -4.24%K -6.85%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-02 19:00
Sky Bet2.60I 38.46%NM 33.46%EV -13.35%E -5.14%K -8.34%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.08%EV -13.89%E -5.28%K -8.52%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.46%EV -11.78%E -4.53%K -7.36%G +0.000%14.9%2026-08-02 19:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-08-02 19:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-08-02 19:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-08-02 19:55