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Aldosivi Mar del Plata v Argentinos Juniors

Kickoff: 2026-02-25 22:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Aldosivi Mar del Plata (Local)

Prediction 18.73%5.34fair odd
EV -0.743%
Edge -0.140%
Kelly -0.173%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.80%19.00%18.29%21.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.304.905.005.3023.26%20.42%20.00%18.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Argentinos Juniors (Visit)

Prediction 53.37%1.87fair odd
EV +1.94%
Edge +1.02%
Kelly +2.14%
Growth +0.042%

assuming max odds 1.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.93%52.99%54.09%54.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.731.711.9161.73%57.66%58.48%52.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.90%3.58fair odd
EV -3.75%
Edge -1.09%
Kelly -1.53%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.10%28.01%27.62%29.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.313.333.4532.26%30.21%30.08%28.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Aldosivi Mar del Plata (Local): 18.73%; Argentinos Juniors (Visit): 53.37%; Draw: 27.90%. For Argentinos Juniors (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.87. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.91, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.94%.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯4.58I 21.83%NM 20.76%EV -14.23%E -3.11%K -3.97%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.79%EV +1.94%E +1.02%K +2.14%G +0.042%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.44%EV -9.89%E -3.06%K -4.43%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-23 02:00
NordicBet🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 21.51%EV -18.53%E -4.26%K -5.53%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.25%EV +1.41%E +0.743%K +1.57%G +0.022%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%EV -10.73%E -3.35%K -4.88%G +0.000%6.9%2026-02-23 01:00
Betsson🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 21.51%EV -18.53%E -4.26%K -5.53%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.25%EV +1.41%E +0.743%K +1.57%G +0.022%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%EV -10.73%E -3.35%K -4.88%G +0.000%6.9%2026-02-23 00:59
PlayUp🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.39%EV -19.47%E -4.53%K -5.90%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.93%EV +0.344%E +0.183%K +0.390%G +0.001%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.67%EV -13.52%E -4.36%K -6.44%G +0.000%8.7%2026-02-23 00:59
1xBet🎯5.15I 19.42%NM 18.51%EV -3.55%E -0.690%K -0.856%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.86%EV -5.53%E -3.12%K -7.18%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.63%EV -3.75%E -1.09%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.9%2026-02-23 14:30
Unibet (UK)🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.93%EV -1.68%E -0.320%K -0.395%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.40%EV -7.66%E -4.43%K -10.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.68%EV -5.15%E -1.51%K -2.14%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-23 05:35
Unibet🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 17.80%EV -0.743%E -0.140%K -0.173%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.85%EV -8.20%E -4.77%K -11.38%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.35%EV -3.75%E -1.09%K -1.53%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-22 20:05
Unibet (SE)🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 17.80%EV -0.743%E -0.140%K -0.173%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.85%EV -8.20%E -4.77%K -11.38%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.35%EV -3.75%E -1.09%K -1.53%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-22 20:05
BetRivers🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.88%EV -1.68%E -0.320%K -0.395%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.90%EV -8.73%E -5.11%K -12.30%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.21%EV -3.75%E -1.09%K -1.53%G +0.000%6.5%2026-02-22 20:05
theScore Bet🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.54%EV -6.36%E -1.27%K -1.59%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.20%EV -8.73%E -5.11%K -12.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.26%EV -5.15%E -1.51%K -2.14%G +0.000%7.9%2026-02-23 12:44
LeoVegas (SE)🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 17.89%EV -2.62%E -0.503%K -0.623%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.74%EV -9.26%E -5.45%K -13.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.37%EV -5.15%E -1.51%K -2.14%G +0.000%7.5%2026-02-22 20:05
BoyleSports🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.33%EV -6.36%E -1.27%K -1.59%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.90%EV -9.26%E -5.45%K -13.23%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.77%EV -7.94%E -2.40%K -3.45%G +0.000%9.1%2026-02-23 05:35
Virgin Bet🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 17.87%EV -4.49%E -0.880%K -1.09%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 54.91%EV -11.40%E -6.87%K -17.27%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.21%EV -6.54%E -1.95%K -2.78%G +0.000%9.7%2026-02-22 20:05
LiveScore Bet🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 17.87%EV -4.49%E -0.880%K -1.09%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 54.91%EV -11.40%E -6.87%K -17.27%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.21%EV -6.54%E -1.95%K -2.78%G +0.000%9.7%2026-02-22 20:04
Winamax (DE)🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 19.03%EV -11.98%E -2.55%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 53.87%EV -11.40%E -6.87%K -17.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.10%EV -7.94%E -2.40%K -3.45%G +0.000%11.8%2026-02-23 05:34
Betclic (FR)🎯4.95I 20.20%NM 18.05%EV -7.30%E -1.47%K -1.85%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 54.47%EV -12.47%E -7.60%K -19.48%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.49%EV -9.33%E -2.87%K -4.15%G +0.000%11.9%2026-02-23 22:03
Parions Sport (FR)🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 18.44%EV -11.04%E -2.32%K -2.94%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 53.75%EV -13.00%E -7.98%K -20.63%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.81%EV -12.12%E -3.85%K -5.64%G +0.000%14.1%2026-02-23 22:04
Winamax (FR)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 19.21%EV -15.73%E -3.49%K -4.49%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 53.35%EV -13.53%E -8.35%K -21.83%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.44%EV -12.12%E -3.85%K -5.64%G +0.000%15.7%2026-02-23 05:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.