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Wales v Scotland

Kickoff: 2026-02-21 16:41 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Wales (Local)

Prediction 13.11%7.63fair odd
EV -1.66%
Edge -0.221%
Kelly -0.255%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 7.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.11%13.19%13.12%14.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.407.027.007.5015.63%14.25%14.29%13.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Scotland (Visit)

Prediction 84.31%1.19fair odd
EV -5.58%
Edge -4.98%
Kelly -46.48%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.12

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
82.67%84.13%84.30%85.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.071.101.101.1293.46%90.86%90.91%89.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 2.58%38.74fair odd
EV +5.84%
Edge +0.143%
Kelly +0.146%
Growth +0.009%

assuming max odds 41.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
2.26%2.67%2.58%3.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
26.0034.4135.0041.003.85%2.91%2.86%2.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Wales (Local): 13.11%; Scotland (Visit): 84.31%; Draw: 2.58%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 38.74. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 41.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.84%.

11 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
William Hill🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.36%EV -14.77%E -2.27%K -2.69%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 83.36%EV -5.58%E -4.98%K -46.48%G +0.000%41.00I 2.44%NM 2.28%EV +5.84%E +0.143%K +0.146%G +0.009%7.1%2026-02-21 16:40
Betway🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.27%EV -8.21%E -1.17%K -1.37%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 84.46%EV -7.26%E -6.60%K -72.64%G +0.000%41.00I 2.44%NM 2.27%EV +5.84%E +0.143%K +0.146%G +0.009%7.6%2026-02-21 16:40
Marathon Bet🎯6.40I 15.63%NM 14.45%EV -16.08%E -2.51%K -2.98%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 83.30%EV -6.42%E -5.78%K -58.37%G +0.000%41.00I 2.44%NM 2.26%EV +5.84%E +0.143%K +0.146%G +0.009%8.2%2026-02-21 16:39
NetBet (FR)🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.49%EV -1.66%E -0.221%K -0.255%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 85.17%EV -7.26%E -6.60%K -72.64%G +0.000%40.00I 2.50%NM 2.34%EV +3.26%E +0.082%K +0.084%G +0.003%6.7%2026-02-21 16:40
Betclic (FR)🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.39%EV -1.66%E -0.221%K -0.255%G +0.000%1.09I 91.74%NM 85.28%EV -8.11%E -7.44%K -90.07%G +0.000%40.00I 2.50%NM 2.32%EV +3.26%E +0.082%K +0.084%G +0.003%7.6%2026-02-21 16:36
Winamax (FR)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.32%EV -14.77%E -2.27%K -2.69%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 83.10%EV -5.58%E -4.98%K -46.48%G +0.000%36.00I 2.78%NM 2.59%EV -7.06%E -0.196%K -0.202%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-21 16:40
Winamax (DE)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.32%EV -14.77%E -2.27%K -2.69%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 83.10%EV -5.58%E -4.98%K -46.48%G +0.000%36.00I 2.78%NM 2.59%EV -7.06%E -0.196%K -0.202%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-21 16:40
NordicBet🎯7.20I 13.89%NM 12.70%EV -5.59%E -0.776%K -0.901%G +0.000%1.08I 92.59%NM 84.68%EV -8.95%E -8.29%K -111.87%G +0.000%35.00I 2.86%NM 2.61%EV -9.65%E -0.276%K -0.284%G +0.000%9.3%2026-02-21 16:39
Betsson🎯7.20I 13.89%NM 12.70%EV -5.59%E -0.776%K -0.901%G +0.000%1.08I 92.59%NM 84.68%EV -8.95%E -8.29%K -111.87%G +0.000%35.00I 2.86%NM 2.61%EV -9.65%E -0.276%K -0.284%G +0.000%9.3%2026-02-21 16:39
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.63%EV -1.66%E -0.221%K -0.255%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 84.58%EV -5.58%E -4.98%K -46.48%G +0.000%34.00I 2.94%NM 2.79%EV -12.23%E -0.360%K -0.371%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-21 16:40
Coral🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.54%EV -1.66%E -0.221%K -0.255%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 84.70%EV -6.42%E -5.78%K -58.37%G +0.000%34.00I 2.94%NM 2.77%EV -12.23%E -0.360%K -0.371%G +0.000%6.4%2026-02-21 16:40
Tipico (DE)🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.11%EV -1.66%E -0.221%K -0.255%G +0.000%1.07I 93.46%NM 84.87%EV -9.79%E -9.15%K -139.90%G +0.000%30.00I 3.33%NM 3.03%EV -22.55%E -0.752%K -0.778%G +0.000%10.1%2026-02-21 16:39
1xBet🎯7.03I 14.22%NM 13.10%EV -7.82%E -1.11%K -1.30%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 83.72%EV -7.26%E -6.60%K -72.64%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.18%EV -25.13%E -0.867%K -0.898%G +0.000%8.6%2026-02-21 16:39
888sport🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.15%EV -8.21%E -1.17%K -1.37%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 83.68%EV -7.26%E -6.60%K -72.64%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.17%EV -25.13%E -0.867%K -0.898%G +0.000%8.6%2026-02-21 16:39
888sport (SE)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.15%EV -8.21%E -1.17%K -1.37%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 83.68%EV -7.26%E -6.60%K -72.64%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.17%EV -25.13%E -0.867%K -0.898%G +0.000%8.6%2026-02-21 16:39
Mr Green (SE)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.15%EV -8.21%E -1.17%K -1.37%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 83.68%EV -7.26%E -6.60%K -72.64%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.17%EV -25.13%E -0.867%K -0.898%G +0.000%8.6%2026-02-21 16:39
Coolbet🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 13.86%EV -14.77%E -2.27%K -2.69%G +0.000%1.09I 91.74%NM 82.67%EV -8.11%E -7.44%K -90.07%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.47%EV -32.88%E -1.26%K -1.32%G +0.000%11.0%2026-02-21 16:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎7.40I 13.51%NM 13.43%1.18I 84.75%NM 84.21%42.00I 2.38%NM 2.37%0.6%2026-02-21 16:40
Matchbook◎7.00I 14.29%NM 14.17%1.19I 84.03%NM 83.35%40.00I 2.50%NM 2.48%0.8%2026-02-21 16:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎7.20I 13.89%NM 13.75%1.18I 84.75%NM 83.89%42.00I 2.38%NM 2.36%1.0%2026-02-21 16:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎7.20I 13.89%NM 13.75%1.18I 84.75%NM 83.89%42.00I 2.38%NM 2.36%1.0%2026-02-21 16:40
Smarkets◎6.60I 15.15%NM 14.81%1.18I 84.75%NM 82.86%42.02I 2.38%NM 2.33%2.3%2026-02-21 16:40

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (11)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Casumo🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%4.9%2026-02-21 16:40
Grosvenor🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%4.9%2026-02-21 16:40
Unibet (NL)🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%4.9%2026-02-21 16:40
Unibet🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%4.9%2026-02-21 16:40
PlayUp🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%5.3%2026-02-21 16:40
BetRivers🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 14.01%1.10I 90.91%NM 85.99%5.7%2026-02-21 16:40
Neds🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%6.3%2026-02-21 16:39
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%6.9%2026-02-21 16:39
TABtouch🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.36%1.09I 91.74%NM 85.64%7.1%2026-02-21 16:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%1.05I 95.24%NM 88.40%7.7%2026-02-21 16:40
TAB🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.18%1.04I 96.15%NM 87.82%9.5%2026-02-21 16:39