The School of Odds
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Newcastle Knights v Wests Tigers

Kickoff: 2026-08-22 02:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (0 in analysis )

Newcastle Knights (Local)

Prediction 0.00%—fair odd
EV -100.00%
Edge -56.50%
Kelly -129.87%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.05%0.00%0.00%59.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.581.661.651.7763.29%60.10%60.61%56.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Wests Tigers (Visit)

Prediction 0.00%—fair odd
EV -100.00%
Edge -42.55%
Kelly -74.07%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.20%0.00%0.00%46.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.202.252.3550.00%45.41%44.54%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Newcastle Knights (Local): 0.00%; Wests Tigers (Visit): 0.00%.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%6.5%2026-08-22 02:24
TABtouch🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%6.5%2026-08-22 02:25
Dabble (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%5.3%2026-08-22 01:24
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%5.1%2026-08-22 02:40
Neds🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%5.1%2026-08-22 02:39
Bet Right🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.58%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.42%5.2%2026-08-22 02:44
SportsBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.92%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.08%6.5%2026-08-22 02:29
TAB🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%5.2%2026-08-22 02:38
PlayUp🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%6.0%2026-08-22 02:39
Betr (AU)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%5.8%2026-08-22 02:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.70I 58.82%NM 57.50%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.50%2.3%2026-08-22 02:40