Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Newcastle Knights v Gold Coast Titans

Kickoff: 2026-09-13 03:46 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (0 in analysis )

Newcastle Knights (Local)

Prediction 0.00%—fair odd
EV -100.00%
Edge -30.30%
Kelly -43.48%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.73%0.00%0.00%33.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.802.972.953.3035.71%33.65%33.90%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Gold Coast Titans (Visit)

Prediction 0.00%—fair odd
EV -100.00%
Edge -70.42%
Kelly -238.10%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.35%0.00%0.00%71.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.331.391.401.4275.19%71.99%71.43%70.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Newcastle Knights (Local): 0.00%; Gold Coast Titans (Visit): 0.00%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Dabble (AU)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%5.5%2026-09-12 14:20
SportsBet🎯3.07I 32.57%NM 30.39%1.34I 74.63%NM 69.61%7.2%2026-09-13 03:20
TABtouch🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.84%1.36I 73.53%NM 69.16%6.3%2026-09-13 00:35
Betr (AU)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.66%1.39I 71.94%NM 68.34%5.3%2026-09-13 00:15
Bet Right🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%5.8%2026-09-13 02:20
Neds🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%4.9%2026-09-13 03:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%4.9%2026-09-13 03:00
TAB🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%4.9%2026-09-13 03:35
PlayUp🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%6.1%2026-09-13 03:30
Unibet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.49%1.41I 70.92%NM 66.51%6.6%2026-09-13 03:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.82I 35.46%NM 33.49%1.42I 70.42%NM 66.51%5.9%2026-09-13 03:45

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.36%1.30I 76.92%NM 68.93%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.72%11.6%2026-09-13 03:35