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Newcastle Knights v Canberra Raiders

Kickoff: 2026-08-16 01:50 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (0 in analysis )

Newcastle Knights (Local)

Prediction 0.00%—fair odd
EV -100.00%
Edge -52.08%
Kelly -108.70%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.92

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.47%0.00%0.00%55.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.811.831.9258.82%55.13%54.64%52.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Canberra Raiders (Visit)

Prediction 0.00%—fair odd
EV -100.00%
Edge -46.51%
Kelly -86.96%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.16%0.00%0.00%50.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.881.991.932.1553.19%50.30%51.81%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Newcastle Knights (Local): 0.00%; Canberra Raiders (Visit): 0.00%.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
SportsBet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%5.3%2026-08-16 00:54
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%5.3%2026-08-16 01:30
Neds🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%5.3%2026-08-16 01:30
Betr (AU)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.13%1.89I 52.91%NM 49.87%6.1%2026-08-16 01:30
Unibet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.33%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.67%6.5%2026-08-15 22:39
TABtouch🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.33%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.67%6.5%2026-08-15 22:39
Bet Right🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%5.1%2026-08-16 01:39
TAB🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%5.8%2026-08-16 01:43
PlayUp🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%5.8%2026-08-16 00:55
Dabble (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%5.3%2026-08-16 01:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.89I 52.91%NM 51.66%2.02I 49.50%NM 48.34%2.4%2026-08-16 01:45