Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Wests Tigers v St George Illawarra Dragons

2026-08-16 06:05 UTC — NRL

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

54%

42%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Wests Tigers (Local)

Prediction 54.45%1.84fair odd

EV -7.99%

Edge -4.73%

Kelly -11.57%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.69

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

53.07%54.45%54.45%54.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.601.651.651.6962.50%60.70%60.61%59.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

St George Illawarra Dragons (Visit)

Prediction 42.02%2.38fair odd

EV -7.99%

Edge -3.65%

Kelly -6.71%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.19

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

42.02%42.02%42.02%42.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.002.102.102.1950.00%47.68%47.62%45.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 3.54%28.26fair odd

EV -7.99%

Edge -0.307%

Kelly -0.319%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 26.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

3.54%3.54%3.54%4.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

19.0021.5020.5026.005.26%4.65%4.88%3.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Wests Tigers (Local): 54.45%; St George Illawarra Dragons (Visit): 42.02%; Draw: 3.54%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 28.26. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 26.00, with an expected value of -7.99%; they do not produce positive expected value.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Draw	Margin	Updated
Marathon Bet🎯	1.69I 59.17%NM 54.45%EV -7.99%E -4.73%K -11.57%G +0.000%	2.19I 45.66%NM 42.02%EV -7.99%E -3.65%K -6.71%G +0.000%	26.00I 3.85%NM 3.54%EV -7.99%E -0.307%K -0.319%G +0.000%	8.7%	2026-08-06 02:05
Winamax (DE)🎯	1.68I 59.52%NM 53.83%EV -8.53%E -5.08%K -12.55%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 42.06%EV -9.67%E -4.50%K -8.41%G +0.000%	22.00I 4.55%NM 4.11%EV -22.14%E -1.01%K -1.05%G +0.000%	10.6%	2026-08-06 02:04
Unibet (FR)🎯	1.62I 61.73%NM 53.32%EV -11.80%E -7.28%K -19.03%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 42.13%EV -13.87%E -6.77%K -13.21%G +0.000%	19.00I 5.26%NM 4.55%EV -32.76%E -1.72%K -1.82%G +0.000%	15.8%	2026-08-06 02:05
Winamax (FR)🎯	1.60I 62.50%NM 53.07%EV -12.89%E -8.05%K -21.48%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 42.46%EV -15.97%E -7.98%K -15.97%G +0.000%	19.00I 5.26%NM 4.47%EV -32.76%E -1.72%K -1.82%G +0.000%	17.8%	2026-08-06 01:40

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Margin ▲	Updated
SportsBet🎯	1.64I 60.98%NM 58.06%	2.27I 44.05%NM 41.94%	5.0%	2026-08-06 01:39