The School of Odds
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Wests Tigers v St George Illawarra Dragons

Kickoff: 2026-08-16 06:06 UTC

Final: Wests Tigers 22–24 St George Illawarra Dragons

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Wests Tigers (Local)

Prediction 50.29%1.99fair odd
EV -4.45%
Edge -2.34%
Kelly -4.94%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.73%49.97%50.29%51.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.741.801.811.9057.47%55.48%55.25%52.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

St George Illawarra Dragons (Visit)

Prediction 45.69%2.19fair odd
EV -6.33%
Edge -3.09%
Kelly -6.03%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.85%45.99%45.69%47.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.901.982.002.0552.63%50.38%50.13%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 4.02%24.88fair odd
EV +0.493%
Edge +0.020%
Kelly +0.021%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 25.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.59%4.04%4.02%5.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
17.0021.6322.0025.005.88%4.62%4.55%4.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Wests Tigers (Local): 50.29%; St George Illawarra Dragons (Visit): 45.69%; Draw: 4.02%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 24.88. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 25.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.493%.

20 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Winamax (FR)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 51.56%EV -12.50%E -7.18%K -16.89%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.85%EV -8.62%E -4.31%K -8.62%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.59%EV +0.493%E +0.020%K +0.021%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-16 06:04
Winamax (DE)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 51.56%EV -12.50%E -7.18%K -16.89%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.85%EV -8.62%E -4.31%K -8.62%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.59%EV +0.493%E +0.020%K +0.021%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-16 06:04
Marathon Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.83%EV -6.96%E -3.76%K -8.19%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 46.33%EV -9.08%E -4.56%K -9.17%G +0.000%24.00I 4.17%NM 3.84%EV -3.53%E -0.147%K -0.153%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-16 06:00
Betsson🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.75%EV -8.47%E -4.66%K -10.33%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.05%EV -6.33%E -3.09%K -6.03%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.20%EV -11.57%E -0.526%K -0.551%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-16 06:05
NordicBet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.75%EV -8.47%E -4.66%K -10.33%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.05%EV -6.33%E -3.09%K -6.03%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.20%EV -11.57%E -0.526%K -0.551%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-16 06:05
Tipico (DE)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.73%EV -4.45%E -2.34%K -4.94%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 47.73%EV -13.19%E -6.94%K -14.65%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.53%EV -19.61%E -0.980%K -1.03%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-15 13:00
Unibet (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.66%EV -9.48%E -5.27%K -11.85%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 45.37%EV -9.99%E -5.07%K -10.30%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 4.97%EV -27.64%E -1.54%K -1.63%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-16 06:00
NetBet (FR)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 49.64%EV -11.99%E -6.85%K -15.99%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 45.25%EV -12.27%E -6.39%K -13.34%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.11%EV -31.66%E -1.86%K -1.98%G +0.000%15.1%2026-08-16 06:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (20)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.87I 53.48%NM 52.66%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.34%1.6%2026-08-16 06:05
Pinnacle🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 51.81%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.19%3.8%2026-08-16 05:55
SportsBet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%4.1%2026-08-16 05:54
BetOnline.ag🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%4.3%2026-08-16 04:05
Neds🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%5.1%2026-08-16 06:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%5.1%2026-08-16 06:05
Unibet (SE)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%5.2%2026-08-16 06:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%5.2%2026-08-16 06:00
Casumo🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%5.2%2026-08-16 06:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%5.2%2026-08-16 06:00
TABtouch🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%5.2%2026-08-16 05:59
Bet Right🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.79%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.21%5.3%2026-08-16 05:40
TAB🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%5.6%2026-08-16 05:39
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%5.6%2026-08-15 06:14
PlayUp🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%5.6%2026-08-16 06:05
Betr (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%5.6%2026-08-15 23:44
Dabble (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%5.6%2026-08-16 01:24
Unibet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.38%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.62%6.1%2026-08-16 06:04
Grosvenor🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.25%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.75%6.3%2026-08-16 06:00
BetRivers🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.25%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.75%6.3%2026-08-16 05:59